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2012 Projections

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New Jersey  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • April 4, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 5, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 5, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    New Jersey is the 15th least conservative state, voting 8.26% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Jersey is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New Jersey ranks 43th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Robert Menendez - inc  vs.  Joseph Kyrillos, Jr.

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Robert Andrews (D) vs. Gregory Horton (R)
  • District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R)-inc vs. Cassandra Shober (D)
  • District 3:  Jon Runyan (R)-inc vs. Shelley Adler (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 4:  Christopher Smith (R)-inc vs. Brian Froelich (D)
  • District 5:  Scott Garrett (R)-inc vs. Adam Gussen (D)
  • District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Anna Little (R)
  • District 7:  Leonard Lance (R)-inc vs. Upendra Chivukulu (D)
  • District 8:  Albio Sires (D)-inc, old Dist 13 vs. Maria Karczewski (R)
  • District 9:  MERGED:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D)-inc, old Dist 8 vs. Shmuley Boteach (R)
  • District 10:  VACANT:  Donald Payne, Jr. (D) vs. Brian Keleman (R)
         Congressman Donald Payne (D) passed away on Tuesday, March 6, 2012.
         The election to fill his seat will take place on Election Day, Nov. 6, 2012.
  • District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)-inc vs. John Arvanites (D)
  • District 12:  Rush Holt (D)-inc vs. Eric Beck (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 5 GOP, 7 DEM, 1 vacant
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - DEM control 16 GOP, 24 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 31 GOP, 46 DEM, 3 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Chris Christie (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2013
  • Lt. Governor:  Kimberly Guadagno (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Frank Lautenberg (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Robert Menendez (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Robert Andrews (D) - 11th term
  • House District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R) - 9th term
  • House District 3:  Jon Runyan (D) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Christopher Smith (R) - 16th term
  • House District 5:  Scott Garrett (R) - 5th term
  • House District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D) - 13th term
  • House District 7:  Leonard Lance (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D) - 8th term (running in CD-9
  • House District 9:  Steven Rothman(D) - 8th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 10:  vacant
         Congressman Donald Payne (D) passed away on Tuesday, March 6, 2012.
  • House District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) - 9th term
  • House District 12:  Rush Holt (D) - 7th term
  • House District 13:  Albio Sires (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-13
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid D -- Mod D -- Solid D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak D -- -- Mod D -- --
    Class 2 -- Strong D -- -- Strong D --

    Governor
    (2001-2011)
    Mod D -- Strong D -- Weak R --

    House 6 GOP
    7 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    5 GOP
    8 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Weak R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-7 Weak R Solid R Solid R Weak R Mod R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-12 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    New Jersey Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Robert Menendez - inc
    vs
    Joseph Kyrillos
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
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