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2012 Projections


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New Mexico  
General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 14, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 5, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 5, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    New Mexico is the 16th least conservative state, voting 7.86% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Mexico is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    New Mexico ranks 30th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN SEAT:  Martin Heinrich  vs.  Heather Wilson

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN: M Grisham (D) vs. J Arnold-Jones (R)
  • District 2:  Steven Pearce (R) vs. Evelyn Erhard (D)
  • District 3:  Ray Lujan (D) vs. Jefferson Byrd (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - DEM control 15 GOP, 27 DEM
      State House - DEM control 33 GOP, 37 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Susana Martinez (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  John Sanchez (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor (running for Senate)
  • Senior Senator:  Jeff Bingaman, Jr. (D) - 5th term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Tom Udall (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Martin Heinrich (D) - 2nd term (running for Senate)
  • House District 2:  Steven Pearce (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Ray Lujan, Jr. (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak R -- Solid D --

    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Solid D --

    Governor -- Solid D -- Solid D -- Mod R

    House 2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    3 DEM 1 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Strong R Mod R Weak R Strong D Weak D
    CD-2 Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R Strong D Strong R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    New Mexico Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Martin Heinrich
    Heather Wilson
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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