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2012 Projections

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New York  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • April 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • TBD - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 11, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 19.58% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    New York ranks 40th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House

    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand is up for her first full term in 2012.  She currently faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • George Maragos - Nassau County Comptroller
  • Jay Townsend

    • DEM Candidates

  • Kirsten Gillibrand - Incumbent
  • Lumies Huff
  • Scott Noren

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Competitive House Races
    Competitive races for 2012 will be added after redistricting is finalized.
     
    Other House Races
    New York will lose two districts in 2012.  Redistricting should be complete in the spring of 2012.
  • District 1:  Tim Bishop (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 2:  Steve Israel (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 3:  Peter King (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 9:  Bob Turner (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 11:  Yvette Clarke (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 13:  Mike Grimm (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 15:  Charles Rangel (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 16:  Jose Serrano (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 17:  Eliot Engel (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 18:  Nita Lowey (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 19:  Nan Hayworth (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 20:  Christopher Gibson (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 21:  Paul Tonko (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 23:  William Owens (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 24:  Richard Hanna (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 25:  Ann Marie Buerkle (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 26:  Kathleen Hochul (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 27:  Brian Higgins (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D)-inc - awaiting redistricting
  • District 29:  Thomas Reed, II (R)-inc - awaiting redistricting
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 8 GOP, 21 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 32 GOP, 29 DEM, 1 vacant
      State Assembly - DEM control 50 GOP, 98 DEM, 1 IND, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Andrew Cuomo (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Robert Duffy - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Charles Schumer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Tim Bishop (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Steve Israel (D) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Peter King (R) - 10th term
  • House District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D) - 15th term
  • House District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D) - 8th term
  • House District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D) - 7th term
  • House District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D) - 11th term
  • House District 9:  Robert Turner (R) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D) - 15th term
  • House District 11:  Yvette Clark (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D) - 10th term
  • House District 13:  Mike Grimm (R) - 1st term
  • House District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D) - 10th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Rangel (D) - 21th term
  • House District 16:  Jose Serrano (D) - 12th term
  • House District 17:  Eliot Engel (D) - 12th term
  • House District 18:  Nita Lowey (D) - 12th term
  • House District 19:  Nan Hayworth (R) - 1st term
  • House District 20:  Christopher Gibson (R) - 1st term
  • House District 21:  Paul Tonko (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D) - 10th term
  • House District 23:  Bill Owens (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 24:  Richard Hanna (R) - 1st term
  • House District 25:  Ann Marie Buerkle (R) - 1st term
  • House District 26:  Kathleen Hochul (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 27:  Brian Higgins (D) - 4th term
  • House District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D) - 13th term
  • House District 29:  Thomas Reed, II (R) - 1st term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Solid D -- Solid D -- Solid D --
    Senate
    Class 1 Strong D -- -- Solid D -- Solid D
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid D
    Governor -- Strong R -- Solid D -- Solid D
    House 11 GOP
    20 DEM    		 10 GOP
    19 DEM    		 9 GOP
    20 DEM    		 6 GOP
    23 DEM    		 3 GOP
    26 DEM    		 8 GOP
    21 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Weak D Strong D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-2 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid D Weak R
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Mod R
    CD-20 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D Strong R
    CD-21 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-22 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-23 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D*
    CD-24 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Weak D Mod R
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Strong D Weak R
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Strong R Solid R
    CD-27 Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Weak D Strong R
    CD-30 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    CD-31 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    *Democrat Bill Owens won a special election in CD-23 between the 2008 and 2010 elections.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    2012 Projections, State-by-State

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