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2012 Projections

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New York  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • April 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • April 24, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 26, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 19.58% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New York ranks 40th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Kirsten Gillibrand - inc  vs.  Wendy Long

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 1:  Tim Bishop - inc  vs.  Randy Altschuler
  • District 11:  Mike Grimm - inc  vs.  Mark Murphy
  • District 18:  Nan Hayworth - inc  vs.  Sean Maloney
  • District 19:  Chris Gibson - inc  vs.  Julian Schreibman
  • District 21:  Bill Owens - inc  vs.  Matthew Doheny
  • District 22:  Richard Hanna - inc  vs.  Dan Lamb
  • District 24:  Ann Marie Buerkle - inc  vs.  Daniel Maffei
  • District 27:  Kathleen Hochul - inc  vs.  Christopher Collins
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Peter King (R)-inc vs. Vivianne Falcone (D)
  • District 3:  Steve Israel (D)-inc vs. Steve Labate (R)
  • District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc vs. Francis Becker, Jr. (R)
  • District 5:  Gregory Meeks (D)-inc vs. Allan Jennings, Jr. (R)
  • District 6:  OPEN:  Grace Meng (D) vs. Daniel Halloran, III (R)
  • District 7:  Nydia Velazquez (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 8:  OPEN:  Hakeem Jeffries (D) vs. Alan Bellone (R)
  • District 9:  Yvette Clarke (D)-inc vs. David Cavanagh (R)
  • District 10:  Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc vs. Michael Chan (R)
  • District 12:  Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc vs. Christopher Wight (R)
  • District 13:  Charles Rangel? (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  Joseph Crowley (D)-inc vs. William Gibbons, Jr. (R)
  • District 15:  Jose Serrano (D)-inc vs. Frank Dellavalle (R)
  • District 16:  Eliot Engel (D)-inc vs. Joseph McLaughlin (R)
  • District 17:  Nita Lowey (D)-inc vs. Joseph Carvin (R)
  • District 20:  Paul Tonko (D)-inc vs. Bob Dieterich (R)
  • District 22:  Richard Hanna (R)-inc vs. Dan Lamb (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 23:  T Reed, II (R)-inc vs. N Shinagawa (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 25:  Louise Slaughter (D)-inc vs. Maggie Brooks (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 26:  Brian Higgins (D)-inc vs. Michael Madigan (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 8 GOP, 21 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 32 GOP, 29 DEM, 1 vacant
      State Assembly - DEM control 50 GOP, 98 DEM, 1 IND, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Andrew Cuomo (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Robert Duffy - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Charles Schumer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Tim Bishop (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Steve Israel (D) - 6th term (running in CD-3)
  • House District 3:  Peter King (R) - 10th term (running in CD-2)
  • House District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D) - 15th term (retiring)
  • House District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D) - 8th term (running in CD-5)
  • House District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D) - 7th term (running in CD-14)
  • House District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D) - 11th term (running in CD-10)
  • House District 9:  Robert Turner (R) - 1st term (partial) (defeated in Senate primary)
  • House District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D) - 15th term (retiring)
  • House District 11:  Yvette Clark (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-9)
  • House District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D) - 10th term (running in CD-7)
  • House District 13:  Mike Grimm (R) - 1st term (running in CD-11)
  • House District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D) - 10th term (running in CD-12)
  • House District 15:  Charles Rangel (D) - 21th term (running in CD-13)
  • House District 16:  Jose Serrano (D) - 12th term (running in CD-15)
  • House District 17:  Eliot Engel (D) - 12th term (running in CD-16)
  • House District 18:  Nita Lowey (D) - 12th term (running in CD-17)
  • House District 19:  Nan Hayworth (R) - 1st term (running in CD-18)
  • House District 20:  Christopher Gibson (R) - 1st term (running in CD-19)
  • House District 21:  Paul Tonko (D) - 2nd term (running in CD-20)
  • House District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D) - 10th term (retiring)
  • House District 23:  Bill Owens (D) - 2nd term (running in CD-21)
  • House District 24:  Richard Hanna (R) - 1st term (running in CD-22)
  • House District 25:  Ann Marie Buerkle (R) - 1st term (running in CD-24)
  • House District 26:  Kathleen Hochul (D) - 1st term (partial) (running in CD-27)
  • House District 27:  Brian Higgins (D) - 4th term (running in CD-26)
  • House District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D) - 13th term (running in CD-25)
  • House District 29:  Thomas Reed, II (R) - 1st term (running in CD-23)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid D -- Solid D -- Solid D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Strong D -- -- Solid D -- Solid D
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid D

    Governor -- Strong R -- Solid D -- Solid D

    House 11 GOP
    20 DEM
    10 GOP
    19 DEM
    9 GOP
    20 DEM
    6 GOP
    23 DEM
    3 GOP
    26 DEM
    8 GOP
    21 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Weak D Strong D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-2 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid D Weak R
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Mod R
    CD-20 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D Strong R
    CD-21 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-22 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-23 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D*
    CD-24 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Weak D Mod R
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Strong D Weak R
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Strong R Solid R
    CD-27 Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Weak D Strong R
    CD-30 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    CD-31 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    *Democrat Bill Owens won a special election in CD-23 between the 2008 and 2010 elections.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    New York Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Kirsten Gillibrand - inc
    vs
    Wendy Long
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Tim Bishop - inc
    vs
    Randy Altschuler
    Projected Winner
    House District 11
    Michael Grimm - inc
    vs
    Mark Murphy
    Projected Winner
    House District 18
    Nan Hayworth - inc
    vs
    Sean Maloney
    Projected Winner
    House District 19
    Chris Gibson - inc
    vs
    Julian Schreibman
    Projected Winner
    House District 21
    Bill Owens - inc
    vs
    Matthew Doheny
    Projected Winner
    House District 24
    Ann Marie Buerkle - inc
    vs
    Daniel Maffei
    Projected Winner
    House District 27
    Kathleen Hochul - inc
    vs
    Christopher Collins
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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