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    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • December 30, 2011 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 6, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Ohio is the 26th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 2.69% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Ohio is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Ohio ranks 27th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Sherrod Brown - inc  vs.  Josh Mandel

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 6:  Bill Johnson - inc  vs.  Charlie Wilson
  • District 16:  Jim Renacci - inc  vs.  Betty Sue Sutton - inc, old District 13
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first.  Ohio is losing two districts to reapportionment in 2012.  Due to redistricting, District 9 featured two Democratic incumbents running against each other for the nomination and District 16 features incumbents from opposing parties battling it out in the general election for that seat.
  • District 1:  Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs. Jeff Sinnard (D)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  Brad Wenstrup (R) vs. William Smith (D)
  • District 3:  NEW SEAT:  Joyce Beatty (D) vs. Chris Long (R)
  • District 4:  Jim Jordan (R)-inc vs. Jim Stone (D)
  • District 5:  Bob Latta (R)-inc vs. Angela Zimmann (D)
  • District 7:  Robert Gibbs (R)-inc vs. Joyce Healy-Abrams (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 8:  John Boehner (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 9:  MERGED:  Marcy Kaptur (D)-inc vs. Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher (R)
  • District 10:  Mike Turner (R)-inc, old Dist 3 vs. Sharen Swartz Neuhardt (D)
  • District 11:  Marcia Fudge (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 12:  Patrick Tiberi (R)-inc vs. James Reese (D)
  • District 13:  Tim Ryan (D)-inc, old Dist 17 vs. Marisha De Guzman Agana (R)
  • District 14:  OPEN:  David Joyce (R) vs. Dale Blanchard (D)
  • District 15:  Steve Stivers (R)-inc vs. Patrick Lang (D)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 13 GOP, 5 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 23 GOP, 10 DEM
      State House - GOP control 59 GOP, 40 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  John Kasich (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Mary Taylor (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Sherrod Brown (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Robert Portman(R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Steve Chabot (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R) - 4th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 3:  Mike Turner (R) - 5th term (running in CD-10)
  • House District 4:  Jim Jordan (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Bob Latta (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Bill Johnson (R) - 1st term
  • House District 7:  Steve Austria (R) - 2nd term (retiring)
  • House District 8:  John Boehner (R) - 11th term
  • House District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D) - 15th term
  • House District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D) - 8th term (defeated in CD-9 primary)
  • House District 11:  Marcia Fudge (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R) - 6th term
  • House District 13:  Betty Sutton (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-16)
  • House District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R) - 8th term (retiring)
  • House District 15:  Steve Stivers (R) - 1st term
  • House District 16:  James Renacci (R) - 1st term
  • House District 17:  Tim Ryan (D) - 5th term (running in CD-13)
  • House District 18:  Robert Gibbs (R) - 1st term (running in CD-7)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak R -- Weak R -- Mod D --

    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Strong D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Solid R -- Solid D -- Solid R

    House 11 GOP
    8 DEM
    12 GOP
    6 DEM
    12 GOP
    6 DEM
    11 GOP
    7 DEM
    8 GOP
    10 DEM
    13 GOP
    5 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D Mod R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Mod R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak D Strong R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong D Strong R
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid D Strong R
    CD-19 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Ohio Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Sherrod Brown - inc
    Josh Mandel
    Projected Winner
    House District 6
    Bill Johnson - inc
    Charlie Wilson
    Projected Winner
    House District 16
    James Renacci - inc
    Betty Sue Sutton - inc
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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