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Ohio  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • December 30, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 6, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Ohio is the 26th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 2.69% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Ohio is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Ohio ranks 27th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House

    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Freshman Senator Sherrod Brown seeks re-election for the first time in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Russell Bliss, Jr.
  • David Dodt, Sr.
  • Donna Karen Glisman
  • Eric Gregory
  • Josh Mandel - Ohio State Treasurer
  • Michael Pryce

    • DEM Candidates

  • Sherrod Brown - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Competitive House Races
    District 6
    Incumbent:  Republican Bill Johnson, who won his first term in Congress in 2010, will be seeking re-election in 2012.  He currently faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bill Johnson - Incumbent
  • Victor Smith

    • DEM Candidates

  • Cas Adulewicz
  • Charlie Wilson - Former U.S. Representative from Ohio

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 7
    Incumbent:  Republican Robert Gibbs, another freshman, is the incumbent in the old District 18.  He is seeking re-election in the new District 7.  He currently faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robert Gibbs - Incumbent
  • Hombre Liggett

    • DEM Candidates

  • Joyce Healy-Abrams

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 16
    Incumbent:  Republican Jim Renacci seeks re-election for the first time in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • James Renacci - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Betty Sue Sutton - U.S. Representative from Ohio, old District 13

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Ohio is losing two districts to reapportionment in 2012.  Due to redistricting District 9 and District 10 feature races where two incumbents from the same party will face each other for their party's nomination.
     
  • District 1:  Steve Chabot (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 2:  Jean Schmidt? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 3:  NEW SEAT:??? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 4:  Jim Jordan (R)-inc vs. Jim Stone (D)
  • District 5:  Bob Latta? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 8:  John Boehner? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 9:  MERGED:Dennis Kucinich (Kaptur)? (D)-inc, old Dist 10 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 10:  Mike Turner? (R)-inc, old Dist 3 vs. ??? (D)
  • District 11:  Marcia Fudge (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 12:  Patrick Tiberi? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 13:  Tim Ryan (D)-inc, old Dist 17  (currently unopposed)
  • District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R)-inc vs. Dale Blanchard (D)
  • District 15:  Steve Stivers (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 13 GOP, 5 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 23 GOP, 10 DEM
      State House - DEM control 59 GOP, 40 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  John Kasich (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Mary Taylor (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Sherrod Brown (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Robert Portman(R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Steve Chabot (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Mike Turner (R) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Jim Jordan (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Bob Latta (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Bill Johnson (R) - 1st term
  • House District 7:  Steve Austria (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 8:  John Boehner (R) - 11th term
  • House District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D) - 15th term
  • House District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D) - 8th term
  • House District 11:  Marcia Fudge (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R) - 6th term
  • House District 13:  Betty Sutton (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R) - 8th term
  • House District 15:  Steve Stivers (R) - 1st term
  • House District 16:  James Renacci (R) - 1st term
  • House District 17:  Tim Ryan (D) - 5th term
  • House District 18:  Robert Gibbs (R) - 1st term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Weak R -- Weak R -- Mod D --
    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Strong D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R
    Governor -- Solid R -- Solid D -- Solid R
    House 11 GOP
    8 DEM    		 12 GOP
    6 DEM    		 12 GOP
    6 DEM    		 11 GOP
    7 DEM    		 8 GOP
    10 DEM    		 13 GOP
    5 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D Mod R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Mod R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak D Strong R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong D Strong R
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid D Strong R
    CD-19 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
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