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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • April 20, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 26, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • August 28, 2012 - Primary runoff
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Oklahoma is the second most conservative state, voting 38.57% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oklahoma is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Oklahoma ranks 5th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 2:  OPEN:  Rob Wallace  vs.  Markwayne Mullin
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  Jim Bridenstine (R)-inc vs. John Olson (D)
  • District 3:  Frank Lucas (R)-inc vs. Timothy Murray (D)
  • District 4:  Tom Cole (R)-inc vs. Donna Bebo (D)
  • District 5:  James Lankford (R) vs. Thomas Guild (D)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 4 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 31 GOP, 16 DEM, 1 vacant
      State House - GOP control 69 GOP, 31 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Mary Fallin (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Todd Lamb (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Jim Inhofe (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Tom Coburn (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  John Sullivan (R) - 6th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 2:  Dan Boren (D) - 4th term (retiring)
  • House District 3:  Frank Lucas (R) - 10th term
  • House District 4:  Tom Cole (R) - 5th term
  • House District 5:  James Lankford (R) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R --

    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Solid R --
    Class 3 -- -- Mod R -- -- Strong R

    Governor -- Weak D -- Strong D -- Solid R

    House 5 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Oklahoma Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    House District 2 (open)
    Rob Wallace
    Markwayne Mullin
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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