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2012 Projections

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Oregon  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 6, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 15, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 15, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Oregon is the 14th least conservative state, voting 9.08% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oregon is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Oregon ranks 37th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    No race in 2012

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Suzanne Bonamici (D)-inc vs. Delinda Delgado-Morgan (R)
  • District 2:  Greg Walden (R)-inc vs. Joyce Segers (D)
  • District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D)-inc vs. Ronald Green (R)
  • District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D)-inc vs. Arthur Robinson (R)
  • District 5:  Kurt Schrader (D)-inc vs. Fred Thompson (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP, 4 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 vacant
      State Senate 30 GOP, 30 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Kitzhaber (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Ron Wyden (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Merkley (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Suzanne Bonamici (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 2:  Greg Walden (R) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D) - 9th term
  • House District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D) - 13th term
  • House District 5:  Kurt Schrader (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Solid D --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Weak D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid D

    Governor -- Weak D -- Mod D -- Weak D

    House 1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-5 Strong D Strong D Mod D Strong D Solid D Weak D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Oregon Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection-at-
    gmail <put a period here> com
     

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