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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 6, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 15, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 15, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Oregon is the 14th least conservative state, voting 9.08% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oregon is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Oregon ranks 37th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Suzanne Bonamici (D)-inc vs. Delinda Delgado-Morgan (R)
  • District 2:  Greg Walden (R)-inc vs. Joyce Segers (D)
  • District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D)-inc vs. Ronald Green (R)
  • District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D)-inc vs. Arthur Robinson (R)
  • District 5:  Kurt Schrader (D)-inc vs. Fred Thompson (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP, 4 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 vacant
      State Senate 30 GOP, 30 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  John Kitzhaber (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Ron Wyden (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Merkley (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Suzanne Bonamici (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 2:  Greg Walden (R) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D) - 9th term
  • House District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D) - 13th term
  • House District 5:  Kurt Schrader (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Solid D --

    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Weak D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid D

    Governor -- Weak D -- Mod D -- Weak D

    House 1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-5 Strong D Strong D Mod D Strong D Solid D Weak D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Oregon Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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