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Pennsylvania  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 14, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • April 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • April 24, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Pennsylvania is the 19th least conservative state, voting 3.05% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Pennsylvania is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Pennsylvania ranks 25th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House

    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Freshman Senator Robert Casey, Jr. is up for his first chance at re-election in 2012.  He currently faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • David Christian
  • Samuel Rohrer
  • Marc Anthony Scaringi
  • Tom Smith
  • Steven Welch

    • DEM Candidates

  • Robert Casey, Jr. - Incumbent
  • Joseph Vodvarka

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Strong DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Competitive House Races
    District 8
    Incumbent:  Freshman Republican Mike Fitzpatrick is up for a second term in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mike Fitzpatrick - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Kathy Boockvar

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 12
    Incumbent:  Democrat Jason Altmire, the current congressman from old District 4, now represents more of new District 12 than incumbent Mark Critz.  Therefore, Altmire is listed as the incumbent.  Both he and Critz are seeking re-election here in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Keith Rothfus

    • DEM Candidates

  • Jason Altmire - Incumbent
  • Mark Critz - U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania, old District 12

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bob Brady? (D)-inc vs. John Featherman (R)
  • District 2:  Chaka Fattah (D)-inc vs. Robert Mansfield (R)
  • District 3:  Mike Kelly (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 4:  OPEN: ??? (R) vs. ??? (D)
  • District 5:  G.T. Thompson (R)-inc vs. Charles Dumas (D)
  • District 6:  Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Manan Trivedi (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 7:  Patrick Meehan, Jr. (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 9:  Bill Shuster? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 10:  Tom Marino (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 11:  Louis Barletta (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 13:  Allyson Schwartz? (D)-inc vs. Joseph Rooney (R)
  • District 14:  Mike Doyle? (D)-inc vs. Hans Lessmann (R)
  • District 15:  Charles Dent (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 16:  Joseph Pitts (R)-inc vs. Aryanna Stader (D)
  • District 17:  Timothy Holden (D)-inc vs. Laureen Cummings (R)
  • District 18:  Tim Murphy? (R)-inc vs. Larry Maggi (D)
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 12 GOP, 7 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 30 GOP, 20 DEM
      State House - GOP control 112 GOP,91 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Tom Corbett (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  James Cawley (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Robert Casey, Jr. (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Patrick Toomey (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Bob Brady (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Chaka Fattah (D) - 9th term
  • House District 3:  Mike Kelly, Jr. (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Jason Altmire (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  G.T. Thompson (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Jim Gerlach (R) - 5th term
  • House District 7:  Patrick Meehan, Jr. (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Bill Shuster (R) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  Thomas Marino (R) - 1st term
  • House District 11:  Louis Barletta (R) - 1st term
  • House District 12:  Mark Critz (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 13:  Allyson Schwartz (D) - 4th term
  • House District 14:  Mike Doyle (D) - 9th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Dent (R) - 4th term
  • House District 16:  Joseph Pitts (R) - 8th term
  • House District 17:  Timothy Holden (D) - 10th term
  • House District 18:  Tim Murphy (R) - 5th term
  • House District 19:  Todd Platts (R) - 6th term (retiring)

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Strong D --
    Senate
    Class 1 Mod R -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong R -- -- Weak R
    Governor -- Mod D -- Solid D -- Mod R
    House 11 GOP
    10 DEM    		 12 GOP
    7 DEM    		 12 GOP
    7 DEM    		 8 GOP
    11 DEM    		 7 GOP
    12 DEM    		 12 GOP
    7 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak D Strong R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Strong D Weak D
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Weak R Weak R Weak R Weak R Strong R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong D Solid D Strong R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak D Solid D Mod R
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-10 Mod R Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D Strong R
    CD-11 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Weak D Strong R
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-13 Mod D Weak D Strong D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Mod R Mod R Solid R Mod R Solid R Solid R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-17 Solid R Weak D Weak D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid D NA NA NA NA NA
    CD-21 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    2012 Projections, State-by-State

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