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2012 Projections

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Pennsylvania  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • February 14, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • April 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • April 24, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Pennsylvania is the 19th least conservative state, voting 3.05% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Pennsylvania is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Pennsylvania ranks 25th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Robert Casey, Jr. - inc  vs.  Tom Smith

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 12:  Mark Critz - inc  vs.  Keith Rothfus
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bob Brady (D)-inc vs. John Featherman (R)
  • District 2:  Chaka Fattah (D)-inc vs. Robert Mansfield (R)
  • District 3:  Mike Kelly (R)-inc vs. Melissa Eaton (D)
  • District 4:  OPEN:  Scott Perry (R) vs. Harry Perkinson, Jr. (D)
  • District 5:  G.T. Thompson (R)-inc vs. Charles Dumas (D)
  • District 6:  Jim Gerlach (R) vs. Manan Trivedi (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 7:  Pat Meehan, Jr. (R)-inc vs. George Badey, III (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 8:  Mike Fitzpatrick (R)-inc vs. Kathy Boockvar (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 9:  Bill Shuster (R)-inc vs. Karen Ramsburg (D)
  • District 10:  Tom Marino (R)-inc vs. Phil Scollo (D)
  • District 11:  Louis Barletta (R)-inc vs. Gene Stilp (D)
  • District 13:  Allyson Schwartz (D)-inc vs. Joseph Rooney (R)
  • District 14:  Mike Doyle (D)-inc vs. Hans Lessmann (R)
  • District 15:  Charles Dent (R)-inc vs. Richard Daugherty (D)
  • District 16:  Joseph Pitts (R)-inc vs. Aryanna Stader (D)
  • District 17:  OPEN:  Matthew Cartwright (D) vs. Laureen Cummings (R)
  • District 18:  Tim Murphy (R)-inc vs. Larry Maggi (D) - possibly competitive
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 12 GOP, 7 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 30 GOP, 20 DEM
      State House - GOP control 112 GOP,91 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Tom Corbett (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  James Cawley (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Robert Casey, Jr. (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Patrick Toomey (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Bob Brady (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Chaka Fattah (D) - 9th term
  • House District 3:  Mike Kelly, Jr. (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Jason Altmire (D) - 3rd term (defeated in CD-12 primary)
  • House District 5:  G.T. Thompson (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Jim Gerlach (R) - 5th term
  • House District 7:  Patrick Meehan, Jr. (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Michael Fitzpatrick (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Bill Shuster (R) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  Thomas Marino (R) - 1st term
  • House District 11:  Louis Barletta (R) - 1st term
  • House District 12:  Mark Critz (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 13:  Allyson Schwartz (D) - 4th term
  • House District 14:  Mike Doyle (D) - 9th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Dent (R) - 4th term
  • House District 16:  Joseph Pitts (R) - 8th term
  • House District 17:  Timothy Holden (D) - 10th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 18:  Tim Murphy (R) - 5th term
  • House District 19:  Todd Platts (R) - 6th term (retiring)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Strong D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Mod R -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong R -- -- Weak R

    Governor -- Mod D -- Solid D -- Mod R

    House 11 GOP
    10 DEM
    12 GOP
    7 DEM
    12 GOP
    7 DEM
    8 GOP
    11 DEM
    7 GOP
    12 DEM
    12 GOP
    7 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak D Strong R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Strong D Weak D
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Weak R Weak R Weak R Weak R Strong R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong D Solid D Strong R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak D Solid D Mod R
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-10 Mod R Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D Strong R
    CD-11 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Weak D Strong R
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-13 Mod D Weak D Strong D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Mod R Mod R Solid R Mod R Solid R Solid R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-17 Solid R Weak D Weak D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid D NA NA NA NA NA
    CD-21 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Pennsylvania Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Robert Casey - inc
    vs
    Tom Smith
    Projected Winner
    House District 12
    Mark Critz - inc
    vs
    Keith Rothfus
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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