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2012 Projections


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South Carolina  
General Information

Election Timeline

  • January 21, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 30, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 12, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • June 26, 2012 - Primary runoff
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    South Carolina is the 16th most conservative state, voting 16.24% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, South Carolina is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    South Carolina ranks 22nd among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Tim Scott (R)-inc vs. Bobbie Rose (D)
  • District 2:  Joe Wilson (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 3:  Jeff Duncan (R)-inc vs. Brian Doyle (D)
  • District 4:  Trey Gowdy (R)-inc vs. Deb Morrow (D)
  • District 5:  John "Mick" Mulvaney (R)-inc vs. Joyce Knott (D)
  • District 6:  Jim Clyburn (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 7:  NEW SEAT: Tom Rice (R) vs. Gloria Tinubu (D)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 5 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 27 GOP, 19 DEM
      State House - GOP control 76 GOP, 48 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Nikki Haley (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  James Ken Ard (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Lindsey Graham (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Jim DeMint (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Timothy Scott (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Joe Wilson (R) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Jeff Duncan (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Trey Gowdy (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  John "Mick" Mulvaney (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Jim Clyburn (D) - 9th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Mod R --

    Class 2 -- Strong R -- -- Solid R --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong R -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Mod R -- Strong R -- Weak R

    House 4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    South Carolina Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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