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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • April 5, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 2, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Tennessee is the 10th most conservative state, voting 22.33% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Tennessee is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Tennessee ranks 8th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Bob Corker - inc  vs.  Mark Clayton

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Phil Roe (R)-inc vs. Alan Woodruff (D)
  • District 2:  John Duncan, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Troy Goodale (D)
  • District 3:  Chuck Fleischmann (R)-inc vs. Mary Headrick (D)
  • District 4:  Scott DesJarlais (R)-inc vs. Eric Stewart (D)
  • District 5:  Jim Cooper (D)-inc vs. Brad Staats (R)
  • District 6:  Diane Lynn Black (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 7:  Marsha Blackburn (R)-inc vs. Credo Comlan Amouzouvik (D)
  • District 8:  Steve Fincher (R)-inc vs. Timothy Dixon (D)
  • District 9:  Steve Cohen (D)-inc vs. George Flinn, Jr. (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 7 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 20 GOP, 13 DEM
      State House - GOP control 65 GOP, 34 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  William Haslam (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Lamar Alexander (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Bob Corker (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Phil Roe (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  John Duncan (R) - 13th term
  • House District 3:  Charles Fleischmann (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Scott DesJarlais (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  James Cooper (D) - 5th term
  • House District 6:  Diane Lynn Black (R) - 1st term
  • House District 7:  Marsha Blackburn (R) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Steve Fincher (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Steve Cohen (D) - 3rd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak R -- Strong R -- Solid R --

    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Weak R -- --
    Class 2 -- Strong R -- -- Solid R --

    Governor -- Weak D -- Solid D -- Solid R

    House 5 GOP
    4 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    7 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Mod D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Tennessee Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Robert Corker - inc
    Mark Clayton
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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