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2012 Projections

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Tennessee  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • April 5, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 2, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Tennessee is the 10th most conservative state, voting 22.33% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Tennessee is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Tennessee ranks 8th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Bob Corker - inc  vs.  Mark Clayton

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Phil Roe (R)-inc vs. Alan Woodruff (D)
  • District 2:  John Duncan, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Troy Goodale (D)
  • District 3:  Chuck Fleischmann (R)-inc vs. Mary Headrick (D)
  • District 4:  Scott DesJarlais (R)-inc vs. Eric Stewart (D)
  • District 5:  Jim Cooper (D)-inc vs. Brad Staats (R)
  • District 6:  Diane Lynn Black (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 7:  Marsha Blackburn (R)-inc vs. Credo Comlan Amouzouvik (D)
  • District 8:  Steve Fincher (R)-inc vs. Timothy Dixon (D)
  • District 9:  Steve Cohen (D)-inc vs. George Flinn, Jr. (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 7 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 20 GOP, 13 DEM
      State House - GOP control 65 GOP, 34 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  William Haslam (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Lamar Alexander (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Bob Corker (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Phil Roe (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  John Duncan (R) - 13th term
  • House District 3:  Charles Fleischmann (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Scott DesJarlais (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  James Cooper (D) - 5th term
  • House District 6:  Diane Lynn Black (R) - 1st term
  • House District 7:  Marsha Blackburn (R) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Steve Fincher (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Steve Cohen (D) - 3rd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak R -- Strong R -- Solid R --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Weak R -- --
    Class 2 -- Strong R -- -- Solid R --

    Governor -- Weak D -- Solid D -- Solid R

    House 5 GOP
    4 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    7 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Mod D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Tennessee Race Tracking
    President
    Mitt Romney
    vs
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Robert Corker - inc
    vs
    Mark Clayton
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
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