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2012 Projections

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Texas  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 29, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 29, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • July 31, 2012 - Primary runoff
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Texas is the 15th most conservative state, voting 19.03% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Texas is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Texas ranks 12th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    OPEN:  Ted Cruz  vs.  Paul Sadler

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 14:  OPEN:  Randy Weber  vs.  Nick Lampson
  • District 23:  Francisco Canseco - inc  vs.  Pete Gallego
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R)-inc vs. Shirley McKellar (D)
  • District 2:  Ted Poe (R)-inc vs. Jim Dougherty (D)
  • District 3:  Sam Johnson (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 4:  Ralph Hall (R)-inc vs. VaLinda Hathcox (D)
  • District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R)-inc vs. Linda Mrosko (D)
  • District 6:  Joe Barton (R)-inc vs. Kenneth Sanders (D)
  • District 7:  John Culberson (R)-inc vs. James Cargas (D)
  • District 8:  Kevin Brady (R)-inc vs. Neil Burns (D)
  • District 9:  Al Green (D)-inc vs. Steve Mueller (R)
  • District 10:  Mike McCaul (R)-inc vs. Tawana Cadien (D)
  • District 11:  Michael Conaway (R)-inc vs. James Riley, Sr. (D)
  • District 12:  Kay Granger (R)-inc vs. Dave Robinson (D)
  • District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D)-inc vs. Dale Brueggemann (R)
  • District 16:  OPEN:  Robert O'Rourke (D) vs. Barbara Carrasco (R)
  • District 17:  William Flores (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D)-inc vs. Sean Seibert (R)
  • District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 20:  OPEN:  Joaquin Castro (D) vs. David Rosa (R)
  • District 21:  Lamar Smith (R)-inc vs. Candace Duval (D)
  • District 22:  Pete Olson (R)-inc vs. Lakesha Rogers (D)
  • District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R)-inc vs. Tim Rusk (D)
  • District 25:  NEW SEAT:  Roger Williams (R) vs. Elaine Henderson (D)
  • District 26:  Michael Burgess (R)-inc vs. David Sanchez (D)
  • District 27:  Blake Farenthold (R)-inc vs. Rose Harrison (D)
  • District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D)-inc vs. William Hayward (R)
  • District 29:  Gene Green (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D)-inc vs. Travis Washington, Jr. (R)
  • District 31:  John Carter (R)-inc vs. Stephen Wyman (D)
  • District 32:  Pete Sessions (R)-inc vs. Katherine McGovern (D)
  • District 33:  NEW SEAT:  Mark Veasey (D) vs. Charles Bradley (R)
  • District 34:  NEW SEAT:  Filemon Vela (D) vs. Jessica Bradshaw (R)
  • District 35:  Lloyd Doggett (D)-inc vs. Susan Narvaiz (R)
  • District 36:  NEW SEAT:  Max Owen Martin (D) vs. Steve Stockman (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 23 GOP, 9 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 19 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - GOP control 101 GOP, 49 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Rick Perry (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  David Dewhurst (R) - 3rd term, defeated in Senate primary in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Kay Hutchison (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  John Cornyn (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Ted Poe (R) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  Sam Johnson (R) - 11th term
  • House District 4:  Ralph Hall (R) - 16th term
  • House District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R) - 5th term
  • House District 6:  Joe Barton (R) - 14th term
  • House District 7:  John Culberson (R) - 6th term
  • House District 8:  Kevin Brady (R) - 8th term
  • House District 9:  Al Green (D) - 4th term
  • House District 10:  Mike McCaul (R) - 4th term
  • House District 11:  Michael Conaway (R) - 4th term
  • House District 12:  Kay Granger (R) - 8th term
  • House District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R) - 9th term
  • House District 14:  Ron Paul (R) - 11th term (retiring)
  • House District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D) - 12th term
  • House District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D) - 8th term
  • House District 17:  William Flores (R) - 1st term
  • House District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D) - 9th term
  • House District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R) - 5th term
  • House District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D) - 7th term (retiring)
  • House District 21:  Lamar Smith (R) - 13th term
  • House District 22:  Pete Olsen (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 23:  Francisco Canseco (R) - 1st term
  • House District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R) - 4th term
  • House District 25:  Lloyd Doggett (D) - 9th term (running in CD-35)
  • House District 26:  Michael Burgess (R) - 5th term
  • House District 27:  Blake Farenthold (R) - 1st term
  • House District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D) - 4th term
  • House District 29:  Gene Green (D) - 10th term
  • House District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D) - 10th term
  • House District 31:  John Carter (R) - 5th term
  • House District 32:  Pete Sessions (R) - 8th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Strong R --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid R -- --
    Class 2 -- Strong R -- -- Strong R --

    Governor -- Solid R -- Mod R -- Strong R

    House 13 GOP
    17 DEM
    15 GOP
    17 DEM
    21 GOP
    11 DEM
    19 GOP
    13 DEM
    20 GOP
    12 DEM
    23 GOP
    9 DEM
    CD-1 Strong D Strong D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-11 Strong D Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-12 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Weak D Weak D Solid D Mod D Solid R
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong D Mod R Solid R
    CD-23 Solid R Weak R Solid R Weak D Strong D Weak R
    CD-24 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-26 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-27 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-32 NA Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party change not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2004 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Texas Race Tracking
    President
    Mitt Romney
    vs
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Ted Cruz
    vs
    Paul Sadler
    Projected Winner
    House District 14 (open)
    Randy Weber
    vs
    Nick Lampson
    Projected Winner
    House District 23
    Francisco Canseco - inc
    vs
    Pete Gallego
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection-at-
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