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Utah  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 15, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 26, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 26, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Utah is the 3rd most conservative state, voting 35.30% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Utah is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Utah ranks 11th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House


    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania
  • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Republican Orrin Hatch seeks a seventh term in 2012  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Orrin Hatch - Incumbent
  • Tim Aalders
  • Dale Ash
  • Arlan Brunson
  • Kevin Fisk
  • Christopher Herrod - Utah State Representative
  • Dan Liljenquist - Former Utah State Senator
  • DEM Candidates

  • Peter Ashdown
  • Christopher Stout
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Republican Gary Herbert won a special election in 2010.  He is up for a first tull term in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Gary Herbert - Incumbent
  • David Kirkham
  • Morgan Philpot - Former Utah State Representative
  • Kenneth Sumsion - Utah State Representative
  • DEM Candidates

  • none so far
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Competitive House Races
    District 4
    Incumbent  Democrat Jim Matheson, incumbent in the old District 2, is now in District 4 and will seek a seventh term here in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • James Cobb
  • Bob Fuehr
  • Mia Love - Sarasota Springs Mayor
  • Stephen Sandstrom - Utah State Representative
  • Carl Wimmer - Utah State Representative
  • DEM Candidates

  • Jim Matheson - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Rob Bishop? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  NEW SEAT: ??? (R)  (currently unopposed)
  • District 3:  Jason Chaffetz? (R)-inc vs. Richard Clark (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 7 DEM, 1 vacant
      State House - GOP control 57 GOP, 17 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Gary Herbert (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Gregory Bell (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Orrin Hatch (R) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Mike Lee (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Rob Bishop (R) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Jim Matheson (D) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Jason Chaffetz (R) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid R -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    Governor Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R Solid R

    House 2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Strong D Weak D Strong D Solid D Weak D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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