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    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 29, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 12, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Virginia is the 27th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 0.97% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Virginia is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Virginia ranks 42nd among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN:  Tim Kaine  vs.  George Allen

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Robert Wittman (R)-inc vs. Adam Cook (D)
  • District 2:  Scott Rigell (R)-inc vs. Paul Hirschbiel (D)
  • District 3:  Bobby Scott (D)-inc vs. Dean Longo (R)
  • District 4:  Randy Forbes (R)-inc vs. Ella Ward (D)
  • District 5:  Robert Hurt (R)-inc vs. John Douglass (D)
  • District 6:  Bob Goodlatte (R)-inc vs. Andy Schmookler (D)
  • District 7:  Eric Cantor (R)-inc vs. Wayne Powell (D)
  • District 8:  Jim Moran, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Patrick Murray (R)
  • District 9:  Morgan Griffith (R)-inc vs. Anthony Flaccavento (D)
  • District 10:  Frank Wolf (R)-inc vs. Kristin Cabral (D)
  • District 11:  Gerry Connolly (D)-inc vs. Chris Perkins (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 8 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control via Lt. Gov. 20 GOP, 20 DEM
      State House - GOP control 59 GOP, 39 DEM, 2 IND

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Bob McDonnell (R) - 1st term, term-limited in 2013
  • Lt. Governor:  Bill Bolling (R) - 2nd term, next election in 2013
  • Senior Senator:  James Webb, Jr. (D) - 1st term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Mark Warner (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Robert Wittman (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Scott Rigell (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Bobby Scott (D) - 10th term
  • House District 4:  Randy Forbes (R) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Robert Hurt (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Bob Goodlatte (R) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  Eric Cantor (R) - 6th term
  • House District 8:  Jim Moran, Jr. (D) - 11th term
  • House District 9:  Morgan Griffith (R) - 1st term
  • House District 10:  Frank Wolf (R) - 16th term
  • House District 11:  Gerry Connolly (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Strong R -- Mod R -- Mod D --

    Class 1 Weak R -- -- Weak D -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Solid D --

    Mod D -- Mod D -- Solid R --

    House 6R 4D 1I 8 GOP
    3 DEM
    8 GOP
    3 DEM
    8 GOP
    3 DEM
    5 GOP
    6 DEM
    8 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Weak R Solid R Strong R Weak R Weak D Strong R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid IND Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Weak R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R
    CD-10 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak D Weak D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Virginia Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    George Allen
    Tim Kaine
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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