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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 6, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 14, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 28, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Vermont is the second least conservative state, voting 29.74% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Vermont is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Vermont ranks 49th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Bernie Sanders - inc  vs.  John MacGovern

    Governor Race

    Peter Shumlin - inc  vs.  Randy Brock

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District AL:  Peter Welch (D)-inc vs. Mark Donka
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 DEM, 1 IND
      Representatives 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - DEM control 8 GOP, 20 DEM, 2 PROG
      State House - DEM control 48 GOP, 94 DEM, 8 other

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Peter Shumlin (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Phil Scott (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Patrick Leahy (D) - 7th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Bernie Sanders (I) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District AL:  Peter Welch (D) - 3rd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Mod D -- Solid D -- Solid D --

    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid I -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid D

    Governor Mod D Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D

    House 1 IND 1 IND 1 IND 1 DEM 1 DEM 1 DEM
    CD-AL Solid I Solid I Solid I Mod D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Vermont Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Bernie Sanders - inc
    John MacGovern
    Projected Winner
    Peter Shumlin - inc
    Randy Brock
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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