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2012 Projections

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Washington  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 3, 2012 - Presidential caucuses
  • May 18, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 7, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Washington is the 12th least conservative state, voting 9.81% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Washington is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Washington ranks 31st among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Maria Cantwell - inc  vs.  Michael Baumgartner

    Governor Race


    OPEN:  Jay Inslee  vs.  Rob McKenna

    Competitive House Races


  • District 1:  VACANT:  Suzan DelBene  vs.  John Koster
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Rick Larsen (D)-inc vs. Dan Matthews (R)
  • District 3:  Jaime Beutler (R)-inc vs. Jon Haugen (D)
  • District 4:  Richard "Doc" Hastings (R)-inc vs. Mary Baechler (D)
  • District 5:  Cathy Rodgers (R)-inc vs. Rich Cowan (D)
  • District 6:  OPEN:  Derek Kilmer (D) vs. Bill Driscoll (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 7:  Jim McDermott (D)-inc vs. Ronald Bemis (R)
  • District 8:  Dave Reichert (R)-inc vs. Karen Porterfield (D)
  • District 9:  Adam Smith (D)-inc vs. James Postma (R)
  • District 10:  NEW SEAT:  Dennis Heck (D) vs. Richard Muri (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 4 GOP, 5 DEM, 1 vacant
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 22 GOP, 27 DEM
      State House - DEM control 42 GOP, 56 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Christine Gregoire (D) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Brad Owen (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Patty Murray (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Maria Cantwell (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Vacant
        Jay Inslee (D) resigned on March 20, 2012.
         A special election will be held on November 6, 2012 to fill this seat.
  • House District 2:  Rick Larsen (D) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Jaime Beutler (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Richard "Doc" Hastings (R) - 9th term
  • House District 5:  Cathy Rodgers (R) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Norman Dicks (D) - 18th term (retiring)
  • House District 7:  Jim McDermott (D) - 12th term
  • House District 8:  Dave Reichert (R) - 4th term
  • House District 9:  Adam Smith (D) - 8th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Mod D -- Mod D -- Strong D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong D -- -- Weak D

    Governor Solid D -- Weak D -- Mod D --

    House 3 GOP
    6 DEM
    3 GOP
    6 DEM
    3 GOP
    6 DEM
    3 GOP
    6 DEM
    3 GOP
    6 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    CD-1 Strong D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Mod D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak R Mod R Weak R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Washington Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Maria Cantwell - inc
    vs
    Michael Baumgartner
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Jay Inslee
    vs
    Rob McKenna
    Projected Winner
    House District 1 (open)
    Suzan DelBene
    vs
    John Koster
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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