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Wisconsin  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • April 3, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 1, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 14, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Wisconsin is the 17th least conservative state, voting 6.64% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Wisconsin is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Wisconsin ranks 39th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House


    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania
  • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    OPEN SEAT:   Four-term Democrat Herb Kohl will not seek re-election to a fifth term in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jeff Fitzgerald - Wisconsin State Representative
  • Marh Neumann - Former U.S. Representative from Wisconsin
  • John Schiess
  • Kip Alan Smith
  • Tommy Thompson - Former Wisconsin Governor
  • DEM Candidates

  • Tammy Baldwin - U.S. Representative from Wisconsin
  • Gregory Paules
  • Vittorio Spadaro
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Governor's Race
    Special Recall Election:  Republican incumbent Scott Walker faces a recall election sometime this year.  Opponents have gathered the necessary number of signatures to require the special election.

    GOP Candidates

  • Scott Walker - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • Kathleen Falk - Former Dane County Executive
  • Kathleen Vinehout - Wisconsin State Senator
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Competitive House Races
    District 7
    Incumbent:  Freshman Republican Sean Duffy is up re-election for the first time in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Sean Duffy - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • Patrick Kreitlow - Former Wisconsin State Senator
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Paul Ryan (R)-inc vs. Robert Zerban (D)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  ??? (D)  (currently unopposed)
  • District 3:  Ron Kind (D)-inc vs. Ray Boland (R)
  • District 4:  Gwendolynne Moore (D)-inc vs. Dan Sebring (R)
  • District 5:  Jim Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 6:  Tom Petri? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 8:  Reid Ribble (R)-inc vs. James Wall (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 5 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 17 GOP, 16 DEM
      State Assembly - GOP control 59 GOP, 39 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Scott Walker (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Rebecca Kleefisch (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Herb Kohl (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Ron Johnson (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Paul Ryan (R) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Tammy Baldwin (D) - 7th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 3:  Ronald Kind (D) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Gwendolynne Moore (D) - 4th term
  • House District 5:  Jim Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R) - 17th term
  • House District 6:  Tom Petri (R) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  Sean Duffy (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Reid Ribble (R) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Strong D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong D -- -- Weak R

    Governor -- Weak D -- Mod D -- Mod R

    House 4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    5 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D Mod R
    CD-9 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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