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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • April 3, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 1, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 14, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Wisconsin is the 17th least conservative state, voting 6.64% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Wisconsin is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Wisconsin ranks 39th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN:  Tammy Baldwin  vs.  Tommy Thompson

    Governor Race

    No race in November, 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 7:  Sean Duffy  vs.  Patrick Kreitlow
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Paul Ryan (R)-inc vs. Robert Zerban (D)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  Mark Pocan (D) vs. Chad Lee (R)
  • District 3:  Ron Kind (D)-inc vs. Ray Boland (R)
  • District 4:  Gwendolynne Moore (D)-inc vs. Dan Sebring (R)
  • District 5:  Jim Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Dave Heaster
  • District 6:  Tom Petri (R)-inc vs. Joe Kallas
  • District 8:  Reid Ribble (R)-inc vs. Jamie Wall
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 5 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 17 GOP, 16 DEM
      State Assembly - GOP control 59 GOP, 39 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Scott Walker (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Rebecca Kleefisch (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Herb Kohl (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Ron Johnson (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Paul Ryan (R) - 7th term (also running for Vice-President)
  • House District 2:  Tammy Baldwin (D) - 7th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 3:  Ronald Kind (D) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Gwendolynne Moore (D) - 4th term
  • House District 5:  Jim Sensenbrenner, Jr. (R) - 17th term
  • House District 6:  Tom Petri (R) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  Sean Duffy (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Reid Ribble (R) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Strong D --

    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong D -- -- Weak R

    Governor -- Weak D -- Mod D -- Mod R

    House 4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    5 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D Mod R
    CD-9 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Wisconsin Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Tammy Baldwin
    Tommy Thompson
    Projected Winner
    House District 7
    Sean Duffy - inc
    Patrick Kreitlow
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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