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2012 Projections


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West Virginia  
General Information

Election Timeline

  • January 28, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 8, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 8, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    West Virginia is the 14th most conservative state, voting 20.36% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, West Virginia is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    West Virginia ranks 3rd among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Joseph Manchin - inc  vs.  John Raese

    Governor Race

    Earl Ray Tomblin - inc  vs.  Bill Maloney

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  David McKinley (R)-inc vs. Susan Thorn (D)
  • District 2:  Shelly Capito (R)-inc vs. Howard Swint (D)
  • District 3:  Nick Rahall, II (D)-inc vs. Rick Snuffer (R) - possibly competitive
    Additional Information

    Current Partisan Breakdown

    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 2 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 6 GOP, 28 DEM
      State House - DEM control 34 GOP, 65 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Earl Ray Tomblin (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Jay Rockefeller, IV (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Joe Manchin, III (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  David McKinley (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Shelley Capito (R) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II (D) - 18th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Mod R -- Mod R -- Strong R --

    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- Strong D
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --

    Governor Weak D -- Solid D -- Solid D --

    House 1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R
    CD-2 Mod R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    West Virginia Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Joseph Manchin - inc
    John Raese
    Projected Winner
    Earl Ray Tomblin - inc
    Bill Maloney
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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