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2012 Projections


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2012 Texas House District 14 Election  
Randy Weber  vs.  Nick Lampson

General Information

Current Office Holder

Ron Paul (R) - retiring

Most Recent Election

2010:  Ron Paul (R)-inc 76.0% - Robert Pruett (D) 24.0%

Election Timeline

  • March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 29, 2012 - Primary elections
  • July 31, 2012 - Primary runoff
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Texas is the 15th most conservative state, voting 19.03% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Texas is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Texas ranks 12th among the 50 states.
    House District 14 Race Data
    OPEN SEAT:  Republican Ron Paul is not seeking re-election in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randy Weber - Texas State Representative  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Nicholas Lampson - Former U.S. Representative from Texas  
  • Party nominee -

    Scroll down for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Texas U.S. House Election News
    Saturday, October 27, 2012
    EP update for October 27 - Tons of House polls and pundit changes, New Hampshire shifts back to Barack
    Countdown:  10 days until Election Day

    New Hampshire Presidential Race
    We'll get to the House updates in a bit, but first, I wanted to mention that New Hampshire has moved back into President Obama's column today by the slimmest of margins (0.1%).  Given the closeness of the Granite State projection - Romney held a similar 0.1% lead in yesterday's update - it's entirely possible that the state might flip back and forth a couple more times in the final 10 days.

    Updated Competitive House Race List
    I have spent many hours yesterday and today collecting recent House race polls and pundit rating changes, and there are several shake-ups to report as a result.  The four pundits I use to project House races offered several dozen changes to their House race outlooks.  Overall, the benefit of these changes is distributed very evenly between the parties with 41 updates favoring Democrats and 39 favoring Republicans.  The almost perfectly even split reflects the status-quo nature of this year's House elections.

    • Charlie Cook (14 changes) - 9 favor DEMs, 5 favor GOP
    • CQ/RollCall (17 changes) - 10 DEMs, 7 GOP
    • Larry Sabato (25 changes) - 12 DEMs, 13 GOP
    • Stuart Rothenberg (24 changes) - 10 DEMs, 14 GOP
    Since I base the House races that get listed on my hotly-contested House race summary page on pundit evaluations, this boatload of new data has altered that list considerably.  Ten races have been removed, another indication of a lack of any wave this year.  Replacing them are 4 races which have tightened in the pundits' estimations. In addition to the 80 rating changes, no less than 28 House polls were also added to the mix.  They've shaken things up as well.  Four seats are sporting a new color today, two red ones and two blue ones.  Republicans reclaim the edge in the member-vs-member battle in Ohio's 16th district and capture a projected takeover in New York's 27th.  On the other side of the ledger, Democrats reclaim one of their own, Jim Matheson's Utah CD-4 seat, and gain a takeover in Illinois, Rodney Davis' CD-13.
    October 27 Election Projection Update
      Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 290 286 +4
      Mitt Romney 248 252 -9
      Party switchers:  New Hampshire (4 EVs)
      Popular Vote Current Previous Change
      Mitt Romney 49.9 49.8 +0.1
      Barack Obama 48.6 48.7 -0.1
      Party switchers:  New Hampshire (Obama +0.1)
      U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
      Democrats 51 51 no change
      Republicans 47 47 no change
      Independents 2 2 no change
      Party switchers:  none
      U.S. House Current Previous Change
      Republicans 241 241 no change
      Democrats 194 194 no change
      Party switchers:  Illinois CD-13, New York CD-27, Ohio CD-16, Utah CD-4
      Governors Current Previous Change
      Republicans 32 32 no change
      Democrats 17 17 no change
      Independents 1 1 no change
      Party switchers:  none
    Next update will be Monday.

    Filed under: New Hampshire Presidential Race  Illinois House District 13 Race  New York House District 27 Race  Ohio House District 16 Race  Utah House District 4 Race  Florida House District 2 Race  Florida House District 10 Race  Minnesota House District 6 Race  Texas House District 14 Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  2012 House 

    posted by Scott Elliott at 3:54pm 10/27/12::
    Friday, December 30, 2011
    Texas 2012 Preview
    Texas is on tap next on our "Tour of the 50 states." And after the Lone Star state, there will be just 7 states to visit before the tour comes to an end.

    Reapportionment and Redistricting:  When it comes to new seats, reapportionment after the 2010 census made Texas the big winner.  The state's House delegation will swell by four come 2013.  You might think with Republicans running the show here, redistricting would be a boon for the red team.  That was certainly the objective when the state legislature set about redrawing Texas' congressional districts.  However, unlike their counterparts in Pennsylvania they stumbled in that mission by overreaching.

    The biggest flaw in their strategy was to ignore the fact that much of Texas' gain in population was found among Latinos.  The result was a map without any new minority-majority districts and without much hope of surviving the inevitable court challenge.  And so it was the courts rejected the GOP map.  Now, the case drags on with several possible outcomes.  Most of which would benefit Democrats.  Until the matter is settled, my preliminary House projections will reflect a Democrat-favored judgment.  Of the four new districts, I'm expecting three will be painted blue and the fourth painted red.

    President:  The last Democrat to win Texas' electoral votes was Jimmy Carter in 1976.  Former Texas Governor George W. Bush carried the state by over 20 points both times he ran for the White House.  Last time around, John McCain earned a comfortable 12-point win against President Obama.  All this adds up to a strongly Republican state and a Strong GOP Hold in 2012.

    Senate:  The Lone Star state's conservative lean will also be very apparent in the Senate race this year.  Three-term GOP Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is not going to run again in 2012.  Initially Democrats were hopeful that retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez would be able to give the GOP nominee a solid challenge.  Unfortunately for them, Sanchez turned out to be less than satisfactory as a candidate and finally dropped out of the race after his family's house burned down.  His departure from the race makes a Solid GOP Hold by far the most likely result.

    Holding the other Senate seat here is Republican John Cornyn.  He'll be up for a third term himself in 2014.

    Governor:  Republican Governor Rick Perry is running for president in his spare time.  Perry was first elected to the Texas statehouse in 2002 after replacing President Bush as governor in December, 2000.  His next re-election bid, should he choose to run again, will come in 2014.

    House:  The Texas house delegation will probably be bluer in 2013 than it is now considering the above evaluation.  Once the redistricting battle is done, I'll identify which existing House members may face tough re-elections campaigns or which open seats will be up for grabs and add them to EP's hotly-contested house race list.

    There is a ton of information to be had on the Texas state page.

    Next stop:  Utah

    Filed under:  Texas 2012  TX President 2012  TX Senate 2012  TX House 2012 

    posted by Scott Elliott at 6:23pm 12/30/11::

    Texas Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Ted Cruz
    Paul Sadler
    Projected Winner
    House District 14 (open)
    Randy Weber
    Nick Lampson
    Projected Winner
    House District 23
    Francisco Canseco - inc
    Pete Gallego
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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