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Unskewed Poll Projections - 2012  
 
Last updated on
   Barack ObamaMitt RomneyMargin

 
  Current Electoral Votes*:

2008 Turnout:

2004 Turnout:

Average ('04 & '08) Turnout:

290

303

217

253

248

235

321

285

Obama +42

Obama +68

Romney +104

Romney +32

 

 

Unskewed Polls Explanation
To assess claims of bias in many of the 2012 polls, I have come up with these objective measurements.  What follows are three models that adjust polls according to the partisan turnout of the past two elections.  One adjusts the polls according to the turnout in President Obama's election in 2008.  The second uses the turnout in 2004 to calculate the adjustments.  And the third averages the turnout of the previous two elections.

Since these calculations depend on the percentage of Democrats, Republicans and Independents in each survey, only polls for which partisan sampling is available are included.  The three different models are provided to give readers the opportunity to make their own conclusions about the level of bias, if any, that exists in the polls of the 2012 presidential election cycle.

This project uses up to the four most recent polls for each of ten battleground states.  These states are CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI.

*Computed from polls included on this page only.  Values do not necessarily reflect EP's official projections.



 
 
Unskewed Polls Summary
State Polls Used Poll Average 2004 Model 2008 Model Average Model
Revised Skew Flip Revised Skew Flip Revised Skew Flip
Colorado 4 BO 1.5 MR 7.0 BO 8.5 9 EVs BO 0.2 BO 1.3 -- MR 3.4 BO 4.9 9 EVs
Florida 4 MR 0.5 MR 6.8 BO 6.2 -- MR 1.0 BO 0.5 -- MR 3.7 BO 3.2 --
Iowa 2 BO 5.0 MR 0.2 BO 5.2 5 EVs BO 2.0 BO 3.0 -- BO 1.0 BO 4.1 --
Nevada 4 BO 3.0 MR 7.2 BO 10.2 6 EVs BO 2.1 BO 0.9 -- MR 2.5 BO 5.5 6 EVs
New Hamp. 4 BO 0.8 MR 6.0 BO 6.7 4 EVs BO 1.6 MR 0.9 -- MR 2.1 BO 2.9 4 EVs
N. Carolina 4 MR 3.3 MR 10.6 BO 7.4 -- MR 1.9 MR 1.4 -- MR 6.3 BO 3.0 --
Ohio 4 BO 3.5 MR 7.1 BO 10.6 18 EVs BO 3.6 MR 0.1 -- MR 1.7 BO 5.2 18 EVs
Pennsylvania 3 BO 4.0 MR 0.6 BO 4.6 20 EVs BO 2.9 BO 1.1 -- BO 1.2 BO 2.8 --
Virginia 4 MR 0.8 MR 8.3 BO 7.5 -- BO 0.3 MR 1.0 13 EVs MR 4.0 BO 3.3 --
Wisconsin 3 BO 6.7 MR 1.5 BO 8.2 10 EVs BO 5.8 MR 0.9 -- BO 2.1 BO 4.6 --
Battleground State Polling Details
 
 

Colorado - 9 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  CNN/Opinion Research (30/27/43) 10/31 50.0% 48.0% 44.6% 53.6% 48.5% 49.6% 46.5% 51.6%
  American Research Group (33/35/32) 10/28 47.0% 48.0% 44.0% 50.9% 47.6% 47.0% 45.8% 49.0%
  Public Policy Polling (D) (37/36/26) 10/25 51.0% 47.0% 47.7% 50.9% 50.9% 47.5% 49.3% 49.2%
  Purple Strategies (34/31/35) 10/25 47.0% 46.0% 42.2% 51.1% 45.2% 47.3% 43.7% 49.2%
  Average   48.8% 47.3% 44.6% 51.6% 48.1% 47.9% 46.3% 49.8%


Florida - 29 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  NBC/WSJ/Marist (37/35/27) 11/03 49.0% 47.0% 47.2% 50.8% 49.9% 47.0% 48.7% 48.8%
  Gravis Marketing (43/35/22) 10/30 47.0% 50.0% 43.3% 55.4% 45.5% 51.7% 44.5% 53.4%
  CNN/Opinion Research (33/32/35) 10/28 49.0% 50.0% 47.7% 52.6% 50.1% 49.0% 48.9% 50.8%
  SurveyUSA (42/37/20) 10/27 47.0% 47.0% 44.6% 51.0% 46.1% 47.8% 45.4% 49.4%
  Average   48.0% 48.5% 45.7% 52.5% 47.9% 48.9% 46.9% 50.6%


Iowa - 6 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  Gravis Marketing (41/35/24) 11/01 49.0% 45.0% 45.6% 47.5% 46.2% 46.3% 45.9% 46.9%
  NBC/WSJ/Marist (34/31/34) 10/29 50.0% 44.0% 48.3% 46.7% 49.6% 45.4% 49.0% 46.1%
  Average   49.5% 44.5% 47.0% 47.1% 47.9% 45.9% 47.5% 46.5%


Nevada - 6 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  SurveyUSA (43/33/23) 10/29 50.0% 46.0% 45.2% 52.2% 49.9% 46.8% 47.7% 49.6%
  Gravis Marketing (45/36/19) 10/24 50.0% 49.0% 43.3% 55.4% 47.0% 51.4% 45.2% 53.4%
  NBC/WSJ/Marist (39/33/27) 10/24 50.0% 47.0% 46.4% 51.9% 51.3% 46.3% 49.0% 49.1%
  Public Policy Polling (D) (42/36/23) 10/24 51.0% 47.0% 46.5% 50.7% 50.7% 46.2% 48.6% 48.4%
  Average   50.3% 47.3% 45.4% 52.6% 49.7% 47.7% 47.6% 50.1%


New Hampshire - 4 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  Gravis Marketing (35/30/35) 11/01 50.0% 49.0% 45.5% 55.4% 49.1% 51.1% 47.3% 53.2%
  NBC/WSJ/Marist (27/26/47) 10/28 49.0% 47.0% 46.2% 51.3% 49.7% 47.3% 48.0% 49.3%
  Public Policy Polling (D) (30/28/42) 10/28 49.0% 47.0% 45.7% 51.3% 49.3% 47.5% 47.5% 49.4%
  American Research Group (29/35/36) 10/22 47.0% 49.0% 46.9% 50.1% 50.6% 46.4% 48.7% 48.2%
  Average   48.8% 48.0% 46.1% 52.0% 49.7% 48.1% 47.9% 50.0%


North Carolina - 15 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  Public Policy Polling (D) (48/36/16) 10/31 49.0% 49.0% 44.9% 52.9% 49.2% 48.4% 47.0% 50.6%
  SurveyUSA (41/35/23) 10/29 45.0% 50.0% 42.9% 53.3% 47.1% 48.5% 45.0% 50.9%
  Elon University (48/42/7) 10/26 45.0% 45.0% 41.0% 48.6% 44.8% 43.6% 42.9% 46.1%
  Gravis Marketing (42/31/27) 10/25 45.0% 53.0% 40.9% 57.4% 45.0% 53.0% 42.9% 55.2%
  Average   46.0% 49.3% 42.4% 53.1% 46.5% 48.4% 44.5% 50.7%


Ohio - 18 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  NBC/WSJ/Marist (38/29/32) 11/01 51.0% 45.0% 45.3% 52.5% 51.0% 46.1% 48.2% 49.2%
  SurveyUSA (38/32/26) 10/29 48.0% 45.0% 45.4% 52.2% 50.7% 45.7% 48.1% 48.9%
  Public Policy Polling (D) (43/35/21) 10/28 51.0% 47.0% 46.2% 52.8% 51.3% 47.5% 48.7% 50.1%
  Gravis Marketing (40/32/28) 10/27 50.0% 49.0% 45.7% 53.5% 49.8% 49.1% 47.8% 51.3%
  Average   50.0% 46.5% 45.7% 52.8% 50.7% 47.1% 48.2% 49.9%


Pennsylvania - 20 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  Franklin and Marshall (50/37/12) 10/28 49.0% 45.0% 44.4% 48.7% 45.8% 46.5% 45.1% 47.6%
  Gravis Marketing (45/37/18) 10/21 48.0% 45.0% 45.6% 47.0% 47.2% 44.9% 46.4% 45.9%
  Morning Call (46/40/12) 10/21 50.0% 45.0% 49.9% 46.1% 51.2% 44.2% 50.6% 45.1%
  Average   49.0% 45.0% 46.6% 47.3% 48.1% 45.2% 47.4% 46.2%


Virginia - 13 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac (35/27/35) 10/28 49.0% 47.0% 46.4% 53.1% 50.7% 48.7% 48.6% 50.9%
  Gravis Marketing (41/33/26) 10/26 48.0% 48.0% 42.6% 53.5% 46.7% 49.1% 44.7% 51.3%
  Roanoke College (32/30/38) 10/26 44.0% 49.0% 43.0% 50.7% 47.2% 46.4% 45.1% 48.6%
  Purple Strategies (36/31/30) 10/25 47.0% 47.0% 44.6% 52.5% 48.8% 48.1% 46.7% 50.3%
  Average   47.0% 47.8% 44.2% 52.5% 48.4% 48.1% 46.3% 50.3%


Wisconsin - 10 EVs

Polling Firm 
Sample (D/R/I)
DateOriginal 2004 Revised2008 RevisedAvg. Revised
BOMRBOMR BOMRBOMR
  NBC/WSJ/Marist (34/29/35) 10/29 49.0% 46.0% 46.6% 50.8% 50.5% 47.6% 48.6% 49.3%
  WPR/St. Norbert (42/32/26) 10/29 51.0% 42.0% 45.9% 47.2% 50.1% 44.0% 48.1% 45.7%
  Marquette University (34/29/33) 10/28 51.0% 43.0% 49.5% 48.5% 53.7% 45.4% 51.6% 47.0%
  Average   50.3% 43.7% 47.3% 48.8% 51.4% 45.7% 49.4% 47.3%
 
 
 

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