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| Unskewed Poll Projections - 2012 |
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| Barack Obama | Mitt Romney | Margin
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Current Electoral Votes*:
2008 Turnout:
2004 Turnout:
Average ('04 & '08) Turnout:
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290
303
217
253
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248
235
321
285
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Obama +42
Obama +68
Romney +104
Romney +32
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Unskewed Polls Explanation
To assess claims of bias in many of the 2012 polls, I have come up with these objective measurements. What follows are three models that adjust polls according to the partisan turnout of the past two elections.
One adjusts the polls according to the turnout in President Obama's election in 2008. The second uses the turnout in 2004 to calculate the adjustments. And the third averages the turnout of the previous two
elections.
Since these calculations depend on the percentage of Democrats, Republicans and Independents in each survey, only polls for which partisan sampling is available are included. The three different models are provided to
give readers the opportunity to make their own conclusions about the level of bias, if any, that exists in the polls of the 2012 presidential election cycle.
This project uses up to the four most recent polls for each of ten battleground states. These states are CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA and WI.
*Computed from polls included on this page only. Values do not necessarily reflect EP's official projections. |
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| Unskewed Polls Summary |
| State |
Polls Used |
Poll Average |
2004 Model |
2008 Model |
Average Model |
| Revised |
Skew |
Flip |
Revised |
Skew |
Flip |
Revised |
Skew |
Flip |
| Colorado |
4 |
BO 1.5 |
MR 7.0 |
BO 8.5 |
9 EVs |
BO 0.2 |
BO 1.3 |
-- |
MR 3.4 |
BO 4.9 |
9 EVs |
| Florida |
4 |
MR 0.5 |
MR 6.8 |
BO 6.2 |
-- |
MR 1.0 |
BO 0.5 |
-- |
MR 3.7 |
BO 3.2 |
-- |
| Iowa |
2 |
BO 5.0 |
MR 0.2 |
BO 5.2 |
5 EVs |
BO 2.0 |
BO 3.0 |
-- |
BO 1.0 |
BO 4.1 |
-- |
| Nevada |
4 |
BO 3.0 |
MR 7.2 |
BO 10.2 |
6 EVs |
BO 2.1 |
BO 0.9 |
-- |
MR 2.5 |
BO 5.5 |
6 EVs |
| New Hamp. |
4 |
BO 0.8 |
MR 6.0 |
BO 6.7 |
4 EVs |
BO 1.6 |
MR 0.9 |
-- |
MR 2.1 |
BO 2.9 |
4 EVs |
| N. Carolina |
4 |
MR 3.3 |
MR 10.6 |
BO 7.4 |
-- |
MR 1.9 |
MR 1.4 |
-- |
MR 6.3 |
BO 3.0 |
-- |
| Ohio |
4 |
BO 3.5 |
MR 7.1 |
BO 10.6 |
18 EVs |
BO 3.6 |
MR 0.1 |
-- |
MR 1.7 |
BO 5.2 |
18 EVs |
| Pennsylvania |
3 |
BO 4.0 |
MR 0.6 |
BO 4.6 |
20 EVs |
BO 2.9 |
BO 1.1 |
-- |
BO 1.2 |
BO 2.8 |
-- |
| Virginia |
4 |
MR 0.8 |
MR 8.3 |
BO 7.5 |
-- |
BO 0.3 |
MR 1.0 |
13 EVs |
MR 4.0 |
BO 3.3 |
-- |
| Wisconsin |
3 |
BO 6.7 |
MR 1.5 |
BO 8.2 |
10 EVs |
BO 5.8 |
MR 0.9 |
-- |
BO 2.1 |
BO 4.6 |
-- |
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| Battleground State Polling Details |
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Colorado - 9 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| CNN/Opinion Research (30/27/43) |
10/31 |
50.0% |
48.0% |
44.6% |
53.6% |
48.5% |
49.6% |
46.5% |
51.6% |
| American Research Group (33/35/32) |
10/28 |
47.0% |
48.0% |
44.0% |
50.9% |
47.6% |
47.0% |
45.8% |
49.0% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) (37/36/26) |
10/25 |
51.0% |
47.0% |
47.7% |
50.9% |
50.9% |
47.5% |
49.3% |
49.2% |
| Purple Strategies (34/31/35) |
10/25 |
47.0% |
46.0% |
42.2% |
51.1% |
45.2% |
47.3% |
43.7% |
49.2% |
| Average |
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48.8% |
47.3% |
44.6% |
51.6% |
48.1% |
47.9% |
46.3% |
49.8% |
Florida - 29 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist (37/35/27) |
11/03 |
49.0% |
47.0% |
47.2% |
50.8% |
49.9% |
47.0% |
48.7% |
48.8% |
| Gravis Marketing (43/35/22) |
10/30 |
47.0% |
50.0% |
43.3% |
55.4% |
45.5% |
51.7% |
44.5% |
53.4% |
| CNN/Opinion Research (33/32/35) |
10/28 |
49.0% |
50.0% |
47.7% |
52.6% |
50.1% |
49.0% |
48.9% |
50.8% |
| SurveyUSA (42/37/20) |
10/27 |
47.0% |
47.0% |
44.6% |
51.0% |
46.1% |
47.8% |
45.4% |
49.4% |
| Average |
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48.0% |
48.5% |
45.7% |
52.5% |
47.9% |
48.9% |
46.9% |
50.6% |
Iowa - 6 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| Gravis Marketing (41/35/24) |
11/01 |
49.0% |
45.0% |
45.6% |
47.5% |
46.2% |
46.3% |
45.9% |
46.9% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist (34/31/34) |
10/29 |
50.0% |
44.0% |
48.3% |
46.7% |
49.6% |
45.4% |
49.0% |
46.1% |
| Average |
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49.5% |
44.5% |
47.0% |
47.1% |
47.9% |
45.9% |
47.5% |
46.5% |
Nevada - 6 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| SurveyUSA (43/33/23) |
10/29 |
50.0% |
46.0% |
45.2% |
52.2% |
49.9% |
46.8% |
47.7% |
49.6% |
| Gravis Marketing (45/36/19) |
10/24 |
50.0% |
49.0% |
43.3% |
55.4% |
47.0% |
51.4% |
45.2% |
53.4% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist (39/33/27) |
10/24 |
50.0% |
47.0% |
46.4% |
51.9% |
51.3% |
46.3% |
49.0% |
49.1% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) (42/36/23) |
10/24 |
51.0% |
47.0% |
46.5% |
50.7% |
50.7% |
46.2% |
48.6% |
48.4% |
| Average |
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50.3% |
47.3% |
45.4% |
52.6% |
49.7% |
47.7% |
47.6% |
50.1% |
New Hampshire - 4 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| Gravis Marketing (35/30/35) |
11/01 |
50.0% |
49.0% |
45.5% |
55.4% |
49.1% |
51.1% |
47.3% |
53.2% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist (27/26/47) |
10/28 |
49.0% |
47.0% |
46.2% |
51.3% |
49.7% |
47.3% |
48.0% |
49.3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) (30/28/42) |
10/28 |
49.0% |
47.0% |
45.7% |
51.3% |
49.3% |
47.5% |
47.5% |
49.4% |
| American Research Group (29/35/36) |
10/22 |
47.0% |
49.0% |
46.9% |
50.1% |
50.6% |
46.4% |
48.7% |
48.2% |
| Average |
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48.8% |
48.0% |
46.1% |
52.0% |
49.7% |
48.1% |
47.9% |
50.0% |
North Carolina - 15 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| Public Policy Polling (D) (48/36/16) |
10/31 |
49.0% |
49.0% |
44.9% |
52.9% |
49.2% |
48.4% |
47.0% |
50.6% |
| SurveyUSA (41/35/23) |
10/29 |
45.0% |
50.0% |
42.9% |
53.3% |
47.1% |
48.5% |
45.0% |
50.9% |
| Elon University (48/42/7) |
10/26 |
45.0% |
45.0% |
41.0% |
48.6% |
44.8% |
43.6% |
42.9% |
46.1% |
| Gravis Marketing (42/31/27) |
10/25 |
45.0% |
53.0% |
40.9% |
57.4% |
45.0% |
53.0% |
42.9% |
55.2% |
| Average |
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46.0% |
49.3% |
42.4% |
53.1% |
46.5% |
48.4% |
44.5% |
50.7% |
Ohio - 18 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist (38/29/32) |
11/01 |
51.0% |
45.0% |
45.3% |
52.5% |
51.0% |
46.1% |
48.2% |
49.2% |
| SurveyUSA (38/32/26) |
10/29 |
48.0% |
45.0% |
45.4% |
52.2% |
50.7% |
45.7% |
48.1% |
48.9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) (43/35/21) |
10/28 |
51.0% |
47.0% |
46.2% |
52.8% |
51.3% |
47.5% |
48.7% |
50.1% |
| Gravis Marketing (40/32/28) |
10/27 |
50.0% |
49.0% |
45.7% |
53.5% |
49.8% |
49.1% |
47.8% |
51.3% |
| Average |
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50.0% |
46.5% |
45.7% |
52.8% |
50.7% |
47.1% |
48.2% |
49.9% |
Pennsylvania - 20 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| Franklin and Marshall (50/37/12) |
10/28 |
49.0% |
45.0% |
44.4% |
48.7% |
45.8% |
46.5% |
45.1% |
47.6% |
| Gravis Marketing (45/37/18) |
10/21 |
48.0% |
45.0% |
45.6% |
47.0% |
47.2% |
44.9% |
46.4% |
45.9% |
| Morning Call (46/40/12) |
10/21 |
50.0% |
45.0% |
49.9% |
46.1% |
51.2% |
44.2% |
50.6% |
45.1% |
| Average |
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49.0% |
45.0% |
46.6% |
47.3% |
48.1% |
45.2% |
47.4% |
46.2% |
Virginia - 13 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac (35/27/35) |
10/28 |
49.0% |
47.0% |
46.4% |
53.1% |
50.7% |
48.7% |
48.6% |
50.9% |
| Gravis Marketing (41/33/26) |
10/26 |
48.0% |
48.0% |
42.6% |
53.5% |
46.7% |
49.1% |
44.7% |
51.3% |
| Roanoke College (32/30/38) |
10/26 |
44.0% |
49.0% |
43.0% |
50.7% |
47.2% |
46.4% |
45.1% |
48.6% |
| Purple Strategies (36/31/30) |
10/25 |
47.0% |
47.0% |
44.6% |
52.5% |
48.8% |
48.1% |
46.7% |
50.3% |
| Average |
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47.0% |
47.8% |
44.2% |
52.5% |
48.4% |
48.1% |
46.3% |
50.3% |
Wisconsin - 10 EVs
Polling Firm
Sample (D/R/I) | Date | Original |
2004 Revised | 2008 Revised | Avg. Revised |
| BO | MR | BO | MR |
BO | MR | BO | MR |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist (34/29/35) |
10/29 |
49.0% |
46.0% |
46.6% |
50.8% |
50.5% |
47.6% |
48.6% |
49.3% |
| WPR/St. Norbert (42/32/26) |
10/29 |
51.0% |
42.0% |
45.9% |
47.2% |
50.1% |
44.0% |
48.1% |
45.7% |
| Marquette University (34/29/33) |
10/28 |
51.0% |
43.0% |
49.5% |
48.5% |
53.7% |
45.4% |
51.6% |
47.0% |
| Average |
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50.3% |
43.7% |
47.3% |
48.8% |
51.4% |
45.7% |
49.4% |
47.3% |
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