New Jersey 3rd District Election |
Election Day November 8, 2016
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The Candidates
Republican Tom MacArthur Nominee |
OPEN SEAT |
Democrat Aimee Belgard Nominee |
Incumbent: Republican Jon Runyan is retiring at the end of his current term. He is not seeking re-election in 2014.
Republicans
- Tom MacArthur - Former Randolph Mayor

- Steve Lonegan - Former Bogota Mayor
Democrats
- Aimee Belgard - Burlington County Freeholder

- Howard Keinhendler
- Bruce Todd
Others
- Frederick LaVergne(Democratic-Republican)
Party nominee - 
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Projection DataElection Projection: Tom MacArthur by 5.9%
Pundit | Date | Prediction |
Charlie Cook | June 6 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
Larry Sabato | June 4 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
Stuart Rothenberg | October 29 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
Real Clear Politics | September 10 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
Firm | Dates | Belgard | MacArthur |
Richard Stockton College | 10/25 - 10/28 | 41 | 46 |
Monmouth University | 10/9 - 10/13 | 41 | 51 |
Projection Calculations
Metric | Raw Value | Weight | Net Value |
Pundit ratings | 4.0 | 50% | 2.0 |
Head-to-head polls | 7.5 | 50% | 3.8 |
Composite Generic | Difference | Offset | Adjustment |
November 4, 2014 - details |
2.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
Projection History
Date | Projection | Rating |
October 14, 2014 | MacArthur +5.2 | Mod GOP Hold |
June 05, 2014 | MacArthur +0.4 | Weak GOP Hold |
May 09, 2014 | Democrat +0.6 | Weak DEM Gain |
Preliminary | ----- | Weak GOP Hold |
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Election Timeline
New Jersey Polling Hours |
Time Zone Eastern | Polls Open 6:00AM Local time | Polls Close 8:00PM Local time |
Filing Deadline March 31, 2014
Primary Election June 3, 2014
Election Day November 4, 2014
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Projection Data
Polls will be posted as they become available.
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