New Jersey 3rd District Election |
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Election Day
November 8, 2016
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The Candidates
Republican
Tom MacArthur
Nominee |
OPEN SEAT
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Democrat
Aimee Belgard
Nominee |
Incumbent: Republican Jon Runyan is retiring at the end of his current term. He is not seeking re-election in 2014.
Republicans
- Tom MacArthur - Former Randolph Mayor
- Steve Lonegan - Former Bogota Mayor
Democrats
- Aimee Belgard - Burlington County Freeholder
- Howard Keinhendler
- Bruce Todd
Others
- Frederick LaVergne(Democratic-Republican)
Party nominee - |
Projection DataElection Projection: Tom MacArthur by 5.9%
| Pundit | Date | Prediction |
| Charlie Cook | June 6 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Larry Sabato | June 4 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Stuart Rothenberg | October 29 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Real Clear Politics | September 10 | MacArthur +4 (Lean GOP) |
| Firm | Dates | Belgard | MacArthur |
| Richard Stockton College | 10/25 - 10/28 | 41 | 46 |
| Monmouth University | 10/9 - 10/13 | 41 | 51 |
Projection Calculations
| Metric | Raw Value | Weight | Net Value |
| Pundit ratings | 4.0 | 50% | 2.0 |
| Head-to-head polls | 7.5 | 50% | 3.8 |
| Composite Generic | Difference | Offset | Adjustment |
| November 4, 2014 - details |
2.4 | 2.0 | 0.1 | Projection History
| Date | Projection | Rating |
| October 14, 2014 | MacArthur +5.2 | Mod GOP Hold |
| June 05, 2014 | MacArthur +0.4 | Weak GOP Hold |
| May 09, 2014 | Democrat +0.6 | Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary | ----- | Weak GOP Hold |
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Election Timeline
New Jersey Polling Hours |
Time Zone
Eastern | Polls Open
6:00AM Local time | Polls Close
8:00PM Local time |
Filing Deadline March 31, 2014 Primary Election June 3, 2014 Election Day November 4, 2014 |
Projection Data
Polls will be posted as they become available.
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