Final
Projections

Click on a map for details
Updated:
Tue. Nov 04, 2014
Senate
Republicans 52
Democrats 45
Independents 3
GOP +7, IND +1
House
Republicans 245
Democrats 190
GOP +11
Governors
Republicans 27
Democrats 22
Independents 1
DEM +1, IND +1
2014 Elections on Demand
Projections
 
Polls

New York 21st District Election

Election Day
November 8, 2016
Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.

The Candidates

New York 21st District Election 2014 - Aaron Woolf vs. Elise Stefanik
Democrat
Aaron Woolf
Nominee
OPEN SEAT
 
Republican
Elise Stefanik
Nominee
OPEN SEAT:  Incumbent Democrat Bill Owens is retiring after his second full term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2014.
Republicans
  • Elise Stefanik  
  • Matt Doheny
Democrats
  • Aaron Woolf  
  • Stephen Burke
Others
  • Matt Funicello (Green)
  • Don Hassig (Green)
Party nominee -

Projection Data

Election Projection:  Elise Stefanik by 11.6%
PunditDatePrediction
Charlie CookOctober 29Stefanik +8 (Likely GOP)
Larry SabatoOctober 16Stefanik +8 (Likely GOP)
Stuart RothenbergOctober 29Stefanik +16 (Safe GOP)
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 14Stefanik +4 (Lean GOP)
FirmDatesWoolfStefanik
Harper Polling (R)10/27 - 10/283347
Siena10/20 - 10/223250
Projection Calculations
MetricRaw ValueWeightNet Value
Pundit ratings9.050%4.5
Head-to-head polls14.050%7.0
Composite GenericDifferenceOffsetAdjustment
November 4, 2014 - details 2.42.00.1
Projection History
DateProjectionRating
October 30, 2014Stefanik +10.3Strong GOP Gain
September 23, 2014Stefanik +5.0Mod GOP Gain
September 12, 2014Stefanik +3.4Weak GOP Gain
May 09, 2014Democrat +0.6Weak DEM Hold
Preliminary-----Weak DEM Hold

Election Timeline

New York Polling Hours
Time Zone
Eastern
Polls Open
6:00AM Local time
Polls Close
9:00PM Local time
Important Dates
Filing Deadline
April 10, 2014
Primary Election
June 24, 2014
Election Day
November 4, 2014
Election Results
New York 21st District
Aaron Woolf  33.5
Elise Stefanik  55.2
Called: Stefanik +21.7
Election Projection
New York 21st District
Elise Stefanik  +11.6
Strong GOP Gain
Latest Posts
©Copyright 2003-2015 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved