Current
Projections

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Updated:
Tue. Jul 29, 2014
Senate
Republicans 49
Democrats 49
Independents 2
GOP +4
House
Republicans 233
Democrats 202
DEM +1
Governors
Republicans 29
Democrats 21
no change
2014 Elections on Demand
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November 4, 2014

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2014 Connecticut Governor Race

The 2010 gubernatorial election in Connecticut was one of the closest in the nation percentage-wise and the closest in terms of raw votes.  Democrat Dan Malloy nosed out Republican Tom Foley by just 6404 votes in an election not without controversy.  The town of Bridgeport ran out of ballots having ordered just 1 for every 3 registered voters in the city.  The poor planning prompted a Superior Court ruling that kept polling places in Bridgeport open two hours past the normal statewide closing time.

As a result of the extended hours, Bridgeport's votes were not counted until after the rest of the state's.  And before they were included, Foley was just over 8000 votes ahead of Malloy.  That lead vanished after all the votes were counted, and though the final vote count was razor close, Malloy was declared the winner.  On November 8, Foley quenched any controversy by conceding the race and commenting that "the election [..] was a conclusive victory for Dan Malloy, and this result should not be questioned."

Since Connecticut's outgoing governor, Jodi Rell, was a Republican, Malloy's victory was a Democratic takeover.  In a very Republican election, his victory represented one of the few bright spots for the blue team.  Now, four years later, Malloy faces the challenge of running once again in a less-than-ideal political climate.  Had Malloy been on the ballot in 2012, his re-election might have been much easier than it promises to be this year.

Another aspect of the 2014 Connecticut Governor race that might resemble his last gubernatorial campaign could be his Republican opponent.  Tom Foley announced last month that he will seek a rematch with the incumbent.  His entry enlarges an already crowded GOP field, and, if a Quinnipiac poll from last summer still holds true, he immediately runs to the front of the pack.  That June 2013 poll gave Foley a 25-point edge over Connecticut State Senator John McKinney, his nearest competitor.  It will be interesting to see how the polls look in the coming weeks now that Foley is officially running.

Moving on to the general election matchup, I would put Malloy's chances of retaining residency in the Governor's Mansion at a little better than even-money odds.  This battle will be close, but I give the incumbent the upper hand right now.

Preliminary projection: Weak DEM Hold

You can track this race throughout the 2014 election season here at Election Projection by visiting the Connecticut Governor Election page for polls, projections and updates.  Also, check out the 2014 Governor Elections page for a summary of all gubernatorial races on tap in 2014 complete with EP's colorful red and blue Governor map.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:32pm 02/13/14 :: link
Election Projection*
Dan Malloy-inc
Weak DEM Hold
*Preliminary projection
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