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Mon. Jul 28, 2014
Republicans 49
Democrats 49
Independents 2
GOP +4
Republicans 233
Democrats 202
DEM +1
Republicans 27
Democrats 23
DEM +2
2014 Elections on Demand
Election Day
November 4, 2014

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2014 Florida Governor Race

Last night's Georgia primary runoff election cemented the GOP nominee, David Perdue, and allowed me to move the 2014 Georgia Senate election from a preliminary projection to an official one.  As a result, Democrat Michelle Nunn is now projected ahead of Perdue thanks to her aggregate 0.5% lead in the last two polls here.  The change reduces the net Republican pickup in the Senate to just 3 seats - 3 short of the mark they'll need to regain the majority.  Today's Senate tally stands at 48 Republicans, 50 Democrats and 2 Independents

The good news doesn't stop there for the blue team.  On the 2014 Governor elections summary page, EP's latest map features a blue Florida, heralding Democrat Charlie Crist's new lead over Republican incumbent Rick Scott.  With this update, the projected Republican gubernatorial majority is reduced by one.  The projected tally stands at 28 Republicans and 22 Democrats

Back on June 10, the projections offered a much different outlook.  Senate Republicans were projected to win six seats and win the majority, while Republicans were also looking at a projected gain in governors of two seats.  Declining GOP fortunes are not indicative of a coming red wave and further bolster my current conviction that 2014 may be a status-quo election.

That said, there is still plenty of time for the GOP to gain momentum - President Obama's dismal approval numbers continue to provide potential fuel for that - but, as things stand now, Democrats must be feeling pretty good about their situation in this sixth-year midterm election.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:41pm 07/23/14 :: link
Just this Tuesday, Republican incumbent Rick Scott overtook Democrat Charlie Crist in the Florida governor election projection.  That advantage was short-lived as SurveyUSA's offering yesterday turned the tables back in favor of the challenger.  This latest SurveyUSA poll gives Crist a 4-point lead.  That's a six-point improvement over the previous SurveyUSA poll from late May.  The gubernatorial tally moves back to 30 Republicans and 20 Democrats, a net gain of one for the red team.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:57am 06/12/14 :: link
Today's update brings one significant rating change.  A Public Policy Polling survey out of Florida finds Republican incumbent Governor Rick Scott and his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist exactly tied.  Combined with a SurveyUSA poll taken late last month, the PPP poll gives Scott a slight advantage in today's calculations.  This update shifts the Florida Governor election projection from Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold.  Republicans are now projected to hold 31 statehouses after this year's elections.  That's an increase of two over their current count.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:27pm 06/10/14 :: link
The Florida primary is still over two months away, but the two major party candidates are all but decided.  Democrat, former Republican, former Independent and former Governor Charlie Crist has consistently outperformed incumbent Republican Governor Rick Scott in early Florida Governor polls.  Even after today's SurveyUSA poll giving Scott a two-point lead, Crist is still ahead.

However, based on previous SurveyUSA polls, Scott may be gaining ground.  The last two polls released by the polling firm each gave Crist a three-point edge.  Today's 2014 Florida Governor Election Projection, which includes SurveyUSA's most recent, pegs Crist's advantage at 4.6%, a Weak DEM Gain.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:57pm 05/28/14 :: link
In 2010, Republican Rick Scott won two close elections on his way to the Florida statehouse.  He had to survive first a heated primary battle with former Congressman Bill McCollum - which he did by a slim 3-point margin - before moving on to face the Democrat, Florida's Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.  She had enjoyed a much easier path to the November ballot, cruising to the Democratic nomination with almost 77% of the primary vote.

The gubernatorial race that year was an open seat election, but the sitting governor at the time wasn't retiring from politics.  He wasn't even sitting out the election.  Instead, then-Republican Charlie Crist threw his hat into a different ring, launching a bid for the open Senate seat held by interim GOP Senator George LeMieux.  (Crist had appointed LeMieux a year earlier after Mel Martinez's resignation in August 2009.)

Scott went on to win the general election against Sink by a very narrow 49% to $8% count, and Crist ended up losing badly to Republican Marco Rubio as an independent candidate in three-way race.  Democrat Kendrick Meek also ran in that race but ended up with just 20% of the vote to come in third.

Now, four years later, Crist, wearing the blue team's jersey, is back attempting to reclaim the governorship he voluntarily relinquished in 2010.  Never a very conservative kind of guy, Crist officially switched to the Democratic Party on December 7, 2012.  He is the front runner among a crowded field vying for the Democratic nomination.  Though he is the heavy favorite to prevail in the August 26 primary, Florida State Senator Nan Rich will provide a legitimate intra-party opponent.

On the Republican side, Governor Scott should earn the GOP nomination once again.  However, he hasn't been quite the darling of the Right as evidence by the seven declared Republicans running against him.  Still, it looks right now very much like a Rick Scott - Charlie Crist matchup in the general.

Polls taken so far measuring a Scott/Crist contest show the Democrat with the early lead.  A University of Florida survey released in January put Crist advantage at 7 points, 47-40.  Since both men are already well-known quantities to Florida voters, early polls are probably more predictive of the actual result than in other election scenarios.  So, while there are plenty of months left for the numbers to move one way or the other, Crist looks to me to be the true favorite in this race.

Preliminary projection:  Weak DEM Gain

You can track this race throughout the 2014 election season here at Election Projection by visiting the Florida Governor Election page for polls, projections and updates.  Also, check out the 2014 Governor Elections page for a summary of all gubernatorial races on tap in 2014 complete with EP's colorful red and blue Governor map.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:18pm 02/15/14 :: link
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