November 4, 2014
Track the 2014 Races
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2014 Gubernatorial Races
Monday, October 20, 2014
Connecticut is colored red on today's 2014 governor election map
to Rasmussen's latest survey
which shows Republican challenger
Tom Foley enjoying a 7 point lead over incumbent Democrat Dan Malloy. The margin is unchanged from Rasmussen's
previous poll released back in August, but it differs considerably from Public Policy Polling's latest published just over a week ago.
That poll gave Malloy a 6 point lead.
Situated almost perfectly between those two polls is a survey from Quinnipiac pegging the race at a dead-even 46-46 tie.
It's probably safe to conclude from these three polls that the 2014 Connecticut governor election
will be a
nail-biter. If you'll remember, these two gentlemen fought one of the nation's closet gubernatorial races four years ago with
Malloy earning a scant 6400-vote victory out of over 1 million votes cast.
I'm looking forward to another poll testing this race to see which whether the projected outcome moves closer to Rasmussen
or Public Policy Polling. For now, though, the GOP can add a projected statehouse takeover. However, even with this
change, they still stand to lose a net two governorships next month. The gubernatorial tally stands today at
, 22 Democrats
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:24pm 10/20/14 :: link
Friday, October 17, 2014
One of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the country comes out of the Badger State. Incumbent Republican Scott
Walker is trying to fend off a very strong challenge from educator Mary Burke. Scott has a history of surviving tough election
challenges, having earned an historic recall election victory here in 2012. But this year could see a change of fortune for
Democrats bent on seeing the union antagonist overthrown.
Election Projection currently projects Burke to win the
2014 Wisconsin governor election
by a scant 0.5%. With
just two polls included in the calculations, her slim margin clearly indicates a toss-up situation. However, after seeing Walker
best her in four out of five Wisconsin governor polls
September, Burke's lead likely reveals a bit of momentum in her direction since the beginning of October.
I hope more polling is done on this race over the next 2 1/2 weeks. We really need more data to get a better sense of
how this race is unfolding down the stretch. And I imagine that's what we'll get since the Walker-Burke matchup should be one of
the closest and most closely-watched races in the
2014 governor elections
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:58pm 10/17/14 :: link
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Whew! That was a lot of work! Today's update is posted - finally - and the House numbers have shifted a bit more in
the GOP's favor. Republicans are now projected to extend their majority by a net 6 seats. That's one more than they
were projected to gain yesterday. The new member of the red team is seeking a spot in Congress from
Maine's 2nd district
. Republican Bruce Poliquin edges just ahead
of Democrat Emily Cain for this open seat.
Coincidentally, the man who currently owns that seat makes the update write-up today for reclaiming the lead in the
Maine governor election
. Democrat Mike Michaud is trying to deny
incumbent Republican Governor Paul LePage a second term and is looking like a good bet to do so if the latest numbers hold up.
A Bangor Daily News/Ipsos poll released this week puts him 6 points ahead of LePage, 42-36, with Independent Eliot Cutler earning a
Countering the Democratic pickup in Maine, Republican Sam Brownback earns a Weak GOP Hold
in his bid to retain the top job in Kansas. Over the summer, it looked like Brownback was one of the more vulnerable sitting
governors this election. Recent polling data
shows the race
Even if we cast a suspicious eye on a partisan poll and a Fox News poll giving him leads of three and six
points, respectively, the latest Public Policy offering, which puts Democrat Paul Davis up by just one, indicates a much closer race than their September poll showing Davis up 6. We'll see if Brownback can keep his momentum going as Election Day nears, but it's clear
he's in much better shape than he was a month ago.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:42pm 10/14/14 :: link
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
I've been able to secure access to the website today and post new numbers. Three party switchers are on the board after
adding the results of today's poll report
in the projection calculations. They include two
governorships, both of which have flipped from Weak GOP Gain
to Weak DEM Hold
, and one House race which represents a new projected GOP takeover.
In the 2014 Massachusetts governor election
, Democratic nominee Martha Coakley reclaims the lead over
Republican Charlie Baker on the strength of
this week giving her small leads of two and four points. The other
gubernatorial flip also comes from New England where Incumbent Democrat Dan Malloy vaults back in front thanks to a
Public Policy survey
showing him up by 6 over Republican Tom Foley in the Connecticut governor election
The lone party switcher in the House comes from the California CD-52 election
. Republican Carl DeMaio
polls ahead of incumbent Democratic incumbent Scott Peters in this competitive district by an average of 0.5%. The narrow
advantage is enough to barely overcome a Democratic-leaning 0.4% generic polling adjustment. With this change, the GOP is projected to extend their majority by a net 5 seats in the current 2014 House election
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:12pm 10/08/14 :: link
Monday, October 6, 2014
Before I get into today's numbers, I want to give you a programming note. I am currently traveling and will have limited access to the website this week. So, I'm not sure how much updating I will be able to do between now and the weekend. However,
regular daily updates will resume on Saturday and, barring unforeseen circumstances, continue uninterrupted until Election Day.
Now back to today's new numbers. In the Senate, Democratic Senator Mark Udall has moved back in front of his
Republican challenger, Congressman Cory Gardner in the
Colorado Senate election
. Even though Republicans are also
projected to lose the seat in Kansas to Independent Greg Orman, the projected majority remains in their sights thanks to 7 other
Democratic seats currently leaning their way.
Among the nation's statehouses, the
2014 Georgia governor election
, briefly projected to go to Democrat
Jason Carter, flips back to red today with Republican Nathan Deal two points in the lead. The GOP holds the majority of
governorships, but that edge is projected to decrease with both the Democrats and an Independent (in Alaska) draining one state
executive from the Republican fold.
Finally, we come to the House where we find the third of today's party switchers. A favorable WeAskAmerica
Illinois 12th District poll
gives Republican Mike Bost a razor thin 0.2%
advantage over incumbent Democrat Bill Enyart in the
Illinois 12 District election
. The new projected GOP takeover
would give Republicans a net 4-seat gain in the House, shifting the current balance of power to.
and 197 Democrats
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:08pm 10/06/14 :: link
Thursday, October 2, 2014
The 2014 governor election map
has undergone several changes over the
last two projection updates. Yesterday, there were two party switchers, one benefitting each party. Republicans saw
Charles Baker overtake Martha Coakley in the
Massachusetts governor election
, and Democrats enjoyed seeing
the Florida governor election
go from red to blue as Charlie Crist staked
out a 2-point edge on the strength of a favorable SurveyUSA poll
Baker's first lead of the cycle has moved the Bay State projection from Weak DEM Hold
Weak GOP Gain
, while the Sunshine State's outcome moves in the opposite direction, from
Weak GOP Hold
to Weak DEM Gain
Yesterday's updates were followed this afternoon by another gubernatorial party switcher. Colorado incumbent Governor
John Hickenlooper, a Democrat locked in a surprisingly tough re-election bid, has led in the last two published
Colorado governor polls
. Rasmussen's poll released today has
him up four points, but, more importantly, it cycles Quinnipiac's latest out of the calculations. That Q-poll, most likely an outlier,
gave Hick's GOP opponent, Bob Beauprez, a whopping 10-point advantage.
With that survey out, the Colorado governor election
is now projected
to stay with Hickenlooper by a still-close three-point margin.
All the fun hasn't been limited to the gubernatorial page.
The 2014 Senate elections
map also underwent an update
yesterday. Governor Hickenlooper's Democratic colleague on Capitol Hill, first-term Senator Mark Udall, is also in a very tight
contest with Republican Congressman Cory Gardner. Their battle has been an unexpected pick-up opportunity since Gardner
announced last spring.
Since mid-September, signs point to Gardner establishing a bit of a lead here.
All four polls
conducted since September 10 have put Gardner
ahead. Still, at just +1 point for the challenger, the projection in the
2014 Colorado Senate election
will likely move back and forth a few times before the votes are counted. For now though, this race moves from Weak DEM Hold
Weak GOP Gain
. For now, with 8 projected Senate takeovers, it looks like the GOP can weather
an Independent takeover in Kansas
and still earn the majority in the upper
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:10pm 10/02/14 :: link
Monday, September 15, 2014
|This article was published Tuesday, September 9 on PJMedia.com.
How primary results have affected the parties' general election prospects.
Republicans enjoyed a hurricane force wind at their backs going into the 2010 elections. On Election Day, GOP candidates running for seats in the House realized the full potential of the wave they were riding by earning a massive and historic 63-seat net gain. However, Republican candidates vying for their place in the Senate did not. Sure, they did well, picking up six seats in the upper chamber, but they missed out on several additional opportunities.
Amy Walter, National Editor for CookPolitical.com, points out a major reason why. She writes:
|In 2010, in what was a "wave year" just two of the seven toss-up races went to Republicans, though public polling predicted that four of those seven (57 percent) would flip to the GOP. Terrible GOP candidates like Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle, and Ken Buck were the real culprits in the GOP underperformance that year.
Party nominees matter - even in wave elections. So, with the primary season drawing to a close, let's take a look at the candidates from each party who made it past the qualifying round and evaluate how those choices impact their party's prospects for success in Senate and gubernatorial elections this November.
Thirty-six Senate seats are up for grabs this year. Twenty-three of them are non-competitive races which the incumbent party is very likely to retain. The remaining thirteen seats are either competitive or non-competitive projected takeovers (South Dakota, for example). Coincidentally, thirty-six governorships, of which 14 are currently competitive, are also on tap. Looking at the primary lineups for these competitive races, we see that they fall into three different categories.
Seven senators, 6 Democrats and 1 Republican, are seeking reelection in competitive races this year. The Democrats are Mark Begich (AK), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Udall (CO), Mary Landrieu (LA), Jeanne Shaheen (NH) and Kay Hagan (NC). They are joined by Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY). Eleven incumbent governors are also facing competitive reelection bids in 2014. They consist of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.
Thirteen Senate primary contests from eight different states and twelve gubernatorial primaries in eleven states held primaries that were, well, no contest. I won't list them all here, but it is worthy to note that in some cases - Arkansas GOP Senate, Georgia DEM Senate, for example - having a non-competitive primary meant the nominee was the top choice of the party from the outset. In other cases - Michigan GOP Senate, Montana DEM Senate - the absence of primary competition resulted from the best choice deciding against running.
The first two categories are included for completeness. However, these races are not very useful when evaluating the role of primary voters in their parties' prospects. Their impact is gleaned best from races which featured a primary election in doubt.
Let's take a look at several of these primaries race by race and grade primary voters on whether they have improved or impaired their parties' chances by the choice they made.
Alaska Senate (GOP)
Republicans here are salivating at the opportunity to unseat Mark Begich in this conservative state. Three high profile candidates vied for that honor. GOP voters made the right choice by selecting Former Alaska Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan. While Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell would have given Begich a strong challenge, Republicans avoided a concession by not picking lightning rod Joe Miller. GRADE: A
Georgia Senate (GOP)
Businessman David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston got the most votes in the primary election. However, since neither was able to eclipse the requisite 50% +1 to avoid a runoff, Georgia Republicans had to return to the ballot box a month later to finalize their pick. They get high marks for picking Perdue, but the prolonged runoff period subjected the nominee to more intra-party conflict and gave Democrat Michelle Nunn a longer grace period. GRADE: B
Iowa Senate (GOP)
The biggest accomplishment by GOP primary voters here was to avoid having the state convention decide their nominee. Joni Ernst, who has an enviable bio well-suited to run for public office, captured more than enough votes to earn the nomination outright. A convention-brokered selection could have resulted in an untenable general election option. GRADE: A
North Carolina Senate (GOP)
Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan is one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the Senate this cycle, and Tarheel Republicans had at least three viable options who were faring well, pre-primary, against her in the polls. Thom Tillis, the GOP establishment candidate, prevailed, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff in the process. While Tea Party fans aren't as keen on the career politician as they would have been with either physician Greg Brannon or Pastor Mark Harris, Tillis is an electable choice in the general election - and avoiding that runoff is a big positive. GRADE: A-
Colorado Governor (GOP)
Primary voters on the Republican side get high marks for not nominating unelectable Tom Tancredo. They settled on Bob Beauprez, 2006 gubernatorial nominee, by just 3 points over Tancredo in a four-way race. And while Beauprez was not impressive in his failed bid for governor 8 years ago, he has seemed a stronger candidate so far this year. GRADE: A-
Hawaii Governor (DEM)
Democratic voters in the Aloha state made history this year by handing Neil Abercrombie the largest primary defeat of a sitting governor in U.S. history. Judging from pre-primary polling, they made a great move in doing so. As a result, they have improved their chances of keeping this deeply blue state in the fold. State Senator David Ige still trails Republican nominee Duke Aiona, Jr. in the polls (ed. note: not anymore), but he has the potential of staging the comeback Abercrombie could not. GRADE: A+
Illinois Governor (GOP)
Bruce Rauner has the funds to finance his campaign for governor. That's important in a state that contains the expensive Chicago media market. Also, as a political newcomer, he doesn't have the track record the other Republican contenders have. That's likely a good thing as well in this race against a wily, battle-tested incumbent like Democrat Pat Quinn. GRADE: A
Wisconsin Governor (DEM)
Democrats would like to get rid of Scott Walker perhaps more than any other governor. He survived their recall election in 2012 and has taken steps to undermine their power base in the state. Democratic primary voters selected educator Mary Burke to take him on in 2014. Judging from how she is performing in the polls so far, it looks like they have made a good choice. As of this writing, Election Projection shows Burke defeating Walker by a fraction. GRADE: A
That's a lot of good grades! Unlike the Republican primary disasters noted by Walter, this year's primary results show that voters from both parties have done a good job picking the right nominees to make the most of their general election opportunities.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:07pm 09/15/14 :: link
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Yesterday, voters went to the polls in the last four primaries of the 2014 Election season (if you don't count Louisiana's open primary on
Election Day). The final four states were Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire, where Scott Brown won
the GOP nomination to set up his much anticipated battle against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen. The other
noteworthy result from yesterday was John Tierney's loss in the Democratic primary in Massachusetts' 6th District. Tierney's
defeat marked the first time this election that a Democratic incumbent failed to survive a primary challenge.
I'm always glad when no more primaries remain on the
because that means I can finalize all the races I'm
tracking here at Election Projection. This election, I'm tracking 116 races in all -
. The projection update I'll post later this evening
will include all finalized matchups - no more undetermined
So today we begin the 8-week sprint to the finish line. The year is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans and signs
are starting to indicate it may be "wave-worthy" yet. Regardless, I hope you'll make Election Projection a routine source for your
election news and numbers. I'll be updating the projections with new polls every day, Monday-Saturday, from now until my final
projections on Election Eve. Strap in and hold on - it's going to be an exciting ride!
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:01pm 09/10/14 :: link
Monday, September 8, 2014
A second poll dump from the collaboration between CBS, The New York Times
and YouGov has shaken up the numbers here
at Election Projection, producing a total of eight Senate rating changes. However, despite all the movement, the projected balance of
power in the 2014 Senate elections
remains unchanged at 51-46-3.
The Iowa Senate election
is back in the Democratic fold with Bruce Braley
forging a small lead over Republican Joni Ernst, but Democrat incumbent Mark Begich is now projected to lose the
Alaska Senate election
to Republican Dan Sullivan.
Here is the list of rating changes in today's projection update:
In addition to the eight Senate rating changes - which split evenly between the parties - the list also includes a change in the
Oklahoma governor election
. GOP Governor Mary Fallin moves comfortably ahead of Democratic
challenger Joe Dorman.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:14pm 09/08/14 :: link
Saturday, September 6, 2014
Last week saw two major developments in the elections this year. In Alaska, Democrats abandoned their frontal assault on
Republican Governor Sean Parnell and merged their nominee, Byron Mallott, into the ticket of Independent Bill Walker. By
engineering a deal where Mallott becomes Walker's lt. governor candidate, Democrats hope to pool the Democratic and other non-GOP
vote to overwhelm Parnell's support and unseat the incumbent.
In a three-way race, Parnell held a large lead
in the polls
but struggled to get to 40% with the combined Mallott/Walker vote edging
into the low 40's. The new two-man race between Parnell and Walker has been polled but once - a prior Public Policy Polling
survey. Parnell's new found challenge is highlighted by the poll which gives him a scant 1-point lead over Walker, 41-40.
has moved from Solid GOP Hold
to a much more competitive Weak GOP Hold
The other significant shift occurred in the Kansas Senate election
where Democratic Chad Taylor announced he was withdrawing from the race. After Kansas Secretary of State Kris Koback (R) ruled Taylor would not be removed from the ballot, the Democrat reiterated that he would not serve if elected. The net of
his decision is that Republicans find themselves with yet another very challenging race in this deep red state.
Now, in addition to trying to save embattled
Governor Sam Brownback
, Sunflower State Republicans must also fret over a two-way
race between their incumbent, Senator Pat Roberts, and upstart Independent Greg Orman. As in the race for Alaska governor,
I could find but one poll
testing the new matchup.
It isn't good news for the red team. I'm doubtful the poll's findings will be confirmed by subsequent polling, but for now, Orman
takes a commanding 10-point lead in the 2014 Kansas Senate election
Until we have further polling data, this race moves from a Mod GOP Hold
Strong IND Gain
, our first Independent pick-up. The projected tally in the Senate now stands at
, 46 Democrats
. As you can see, Republicans are still projected to take the majority, but
Kansas' sudden competitiveness complicates their efforts to make that quest a reality.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:09am 09/06/14 :: link
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
With Labor Day, summer break's symbolic end, behind us, the 2014 election season is underway in earnest. The next 9 weeks
will witness ever-increasing interest in the upcoming elections as part-time political observers start turning their attention to who is
running for office - and who's projected to win.
So, if you're looking for a good time to take a baseline measurement, today's
numbers here at Election Projection provide a useful starting point. Will this cycle fulfill its current promise of a
or will Republicans start to see a wave building as interest builds and likely voter models become better defined? As they say, only
time will tell, but I hope you'll make Election Projection a daily stop as we keep our finger on the pulse of the American electorate, 2014 edition.
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:39pm 09/02/14 :: link
Friday, August 29, 2014
This one comes as a surprise to me. The Boston Globe
has released a poll
showing Republican Charlie Baker ahead of
Democrat Martha Coakley in the race for
. This is just one poll and
Massachusetts remains extremely liberal. However, this race might be worth keeping a close eye on. The primaries
here aren't until September 9 - the final day of the
2014 primary season
- but Coakley and Baker are heavily favored
Point to note: Coakley was Scott Brown's opponent when he surprised the nation in January, 2010 by winning the open Senate
seat of the late Sen. Ted Kennedy and ushering in the Republican wave that year. Perhaps she's headed toward a similar
defeat in November. Again, it's way too early to make any such predictions - especially in a state like Massachusetts.
Look for updated numbers this evening after I publish today's Election Projection. Coakley will still be projected to win, but
the race looks much closer than previously calculated.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:11pm 08/29/14 :: link
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Scott Walker, tried and true political survivor, faces yet another stiff challenge in the
2014 Wisconsin governor election
. You may remember
Walker's unprecedented electoral feat back in 2010 when he
survived a gubernatorial recall election
His political opponents are more resolved than ever to unseat the Republican in this bluish battleground state, and recent polling data
indicates they have a decent chance of succeeding. This week's survey published by Marquette University gives the incumbent
47%, two points less than his Democratic opponent, educator Mary Burke. Rasmussen's poll from earlier this month put Walker
one point ahead of Burke, but the average of the two pushes Burke into the lead and gives her a projected
Weak DEM Gain
in the race.
This flip is the second for Democrats in today's
and brings the projected tally to
and 22 Democrats
. These numbers
represent a net 1-seat gain for the blue team.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:34pm 08/27/14 :: link
Yesterday, Republicans in Arizona settled on state Treasurer Doug Ducey to face Democrat Fred DuVal in the battle to replace
term-limited Governor Jan Brewer (R). Before the primary, Election Projection carried a preliminary projection of
Mod GOP Hold
for this race. Now that the nominees are known, I've calculated an "official"
projection that is based on actual polling data.
The only two polls I have found testing a Ducey-DuVal matchup are from early in the year. Nevertheless, they are what I
have to go on, so they'll have to do until other polls are conducted. For the time being, the projection calculations land this race
in Weak DEM Gain
territory with DuVal
projected to win by 1.5%
. My hunch is that DuVal's lead will
last just long enough for a couple more polls to be released. Despite Arizona's bright blue color on EP's
2014 governor election map
, I view this race as Ducey's to lose.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:04pm 08/27/14 :: link