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Projections

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Updated:
Tue. Sep 16, 2014
Senate
Republicans 50
Democrats 47
Independents 3
GOP +5, IND +1
House
Republicans 236
Democrats 199
GOP +2
Governors
Republicans 27
Democrats 23
DEM +2
2014 Elections on Demand
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Election Day
November 4, 2014

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2014 Idaho Senate Race

A perusal of the 2014 primary election schedule reveals that only June 3 is a bigger primary day than tomorrow.  Voters in six states will cast ballots to decide party nominees for races at all levels of government.  The table below has the list of states, along with a race from each that Election Projection is tracking this year.
Primaries on Tuesday, May 20, 2014
State Local Polling Hours Highlighted Race Link to Results
Arkansas 7:30AM-7:30PM AR Senate Click here
Georgia 7AM - 7PM GA Senate Click here
Idaho 8AM - 8PM ID Senate Click here
Kentucky 6AM - 6PM KY Senate Click here
Oregon Vote by mail OR Governor Click here
Pennsylvania 7AM - 8PM PA Governor Click here
Some time before polls close, I'll be providing links where you can watch the returns come in tomorrow evening.

Races that are of particular interest to me tomorrow include the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania Governor, the Kentucky Senate GOP primary and the GOP primary for Georgia Senate.  Pennsylvania primary polls show Tom Wolf to be headed to the Democratic nomination.  Current Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is way ahead of Tea Party favorite Matt Bevin in Kentucky primary polls.  And businessman David Perdue, cousin of former Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue, leads Georgia primary polling by an average of 8 points.

Update:  Links to the returns are now posted for each state.  Tomorrow, I will begin updating EP's race pages to reflect the results of today's primary elections.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:42pm 05/19/14 :: link
In many states, a scandalous exit by a sitting senator would have the opposition party salivating at the chance for an easy takeover.  Idaho is not one of those states.  Even though former Republican Senator Larry Craig's embarrassing restroom arrest in August, 2007 forced him to bow out of a 2008 re-election bid, the GOP never worried about losing the seat.

Lt. Governor Jim Risch decided to make a run for Craig's open seat that year instead of waiting for the next gubernatorial contest in 2010.  Even with the pall of his disgraced predecessor's transgression still lingering, Risch soundly defeated his Democratic opponent, former Democratic U.S. Rep. Larry LaRocco.

Now, six years later, Risch will have no problems claiming a second term.  To get an idea of how safe the 2014 Idaho Senate Race is for the incumbent, consider this:  Risch won a scandal-laden open seat in a very good Democratic year against a former congressman by a whopping 24 percentage points!  The margin in 2014 will no doubt eclipse that rout.

Preliminary projection:  Solid GOP Hold

You can track this race throughout the 2014 election season here at Election Projection by visiting the Idaho Senate Election page for polls, projections and updates.  Also, check out the 2014 Senate Elections page for a summary of all Senate races on tap in 2014 complete with EP's colorful red and blue Senate map.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:56pm 12/04/13 :: link
Election Projection
Jim Risch-inc  +29.5
Solid GOP Hold
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