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Tue. Nov 04, 2014
Republicans 52
Democrats 45
Independents 3
GOP +7, IND +1
Republicans 245
Democrats 190
GOP +11
Republicans 27
Democrats 22
Independents 1
DEM +1, IND +1
2014 Elections on Demand
Election Day
November 8, 2016
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2014 Massachusetts Senate Race

Former Senator John Kerry, who lost the 2004 presidential election to George W. Bush, held this seat in the Senate from January, 1985 until he resigned on February 1, 2013 to become U.S. Secretary of State in the Obama administration.  Governor Deval Patrick chose William "Mo" Cowan to assume the seat in an interim capacity until a special election could be held.

Cowan decided against running in the June 25, 2013 special election, and a competitive race ensued between retired Navy Seal Gabriel Gomez, a Republican, and Congressman Ed Markey, a Democrat.  Gomez had hoped to duplicate Republican Scott Brown's surprise Bay State upset victory in January, 2010.  By running a much better campaign than Martha Coakley, Scott Brown's opponent, Markey avoided the same fate and won the election by a 10-point margin.

That brings us to the 2014 Massachusetts Senate race.  Markey is seeking election to a first full term and has already caught a big break in that quest.  Brown, who lost his bid for a full term in 2012, had been mentioned as a possible challenger in this race, but he is changing addresses.  His move to New Hampshire has people wondering about a possible Senate run against NH Democrat Jeanne Shaheen - but we'll explore that possibility when I preview the Granite State race in the upcoming days.

With Brown out of consideration, Markey's path to re-election is much less perilous.  That's not to say Brown would have beaten him.  It's just that, in this quintessential liberal state, he's likely the only Republican outside of Gomez who could have given Markey a run for his money.  And with Gomez yet to jump into a rematch with Markey, the incumbent appears set to enjoy an easy ride to a full term in the Senate.

Preliminary projection:  Solid DEM Hold

You can track this race throughout the 2014 election season here at Election Projection by visiting the Massachusetts Senate Election page for polls, projections and updates.  Also, check out the 2014 Senate Elections page for a summary of all Senate races on tap in 2014 complete with EP's colorful red and blue Senate map.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:10pm 12/19/13 :: link
Election Projection
Ed Markey-inc  +18.7
Solid DEM Hold
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