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Tue. Nov 04, 2014
Republicans 52
Democrats 45
Independents 3
GOP +7, IND +1
Republicans 245
Democrats 190
GOP +11
Republicans 27
Democrats 22
Independents 1
DEM +1, IND +1
2014 Elections on Demand
Election Day
November 8, 2016
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2014 New Jersey Senate Race

A second poll dump from the collaboration between CBS, The New York Times and YouGov has shaken up the numbers here at Election Projection, producing a total of eight Senate rating changes.  However, despite all the movement, the projected balance of power in the 2014 Senate elections remains unchanged at 51-46-3.  The Iowa Senate election is back in the Democratic fold with Bruce Braley forging a small lead over Republican Joni Ernst, but Democrat incumbent Mark Begich is now projected to lose the Alaska Senate election to Republican Dan Sullivan.

Here is the list of rating changes in today's projection update:

Today's Rating Changes
Election Old Rating New Rating
Alaska Senate Weak DEM Hold Weak GOP Gain
Hawaii Senate Strong DEM Hold Solid DEM Hold
Iowa Senate Weak GOP Gain Weak DEM Hold
Kentucky Senate Weak GOP Hold Mod GOP Hold
Minnesota Senate Strong DEM Hold Mod DEM Hold
New Jersey Senate Mod DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
Oklahoma Governor Mod GOP Hold Solid GOP Hold
Oregon Senate Solid DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
South Carolina Senate Solid GOP Hold Strong GOP Hold
In addition to the eight Senate rating changes - which split evenly between the parties - the list also includes a change in the Oklahoma governor election.  GOP Governor Mary Fallin moves comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Joe Dorman.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:14pm 09/08/14 :: link
When Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg passed away on June 3, 2013, he was 89 years old.  At the time, he was also the oldest active senator and the only World War II veteran in the Senate.  His death left behind a vacancy that New Jersey's Republican Governor Chris Christie filled with a Republican, Attorney General Jeffrey Chiesa.

However, Christie also scheduled a special election to be held on October 16, 2013 to determine who would serve out the remainder of Lautenberg's term.   As New Jersey is a strongly Democratic state, Newark Mayor Cory Booker's victory in the Democratic primary virtually assured him a place in the upper chamber of Congress.   The charismatic Booker won an easy 11 point decision against Republican Steve Lonegan, the former mayor of Bogota, in the general election.

In the 2014 New Jersey Senate race, Booker is the incumbent seeking his first full term.  His quest promises to be a smooth ride mostly because the GOP bench in the Garden State leaves so much to be desired.   In fact, as of this writing, no Republican has even declared a run against Booker.

Preliminary projection:   Solid DEM Hold

You can track this race throughout the 2014 election season here at Election Projection by visiting the New Jersey Senate Election page for polls, projections and updates.  Also, check out the 2014 Senate Elections page for a summary of all Senate races on tap in 2014 complete with EP's colorful red and blue Senate map.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:56pm 01/14/14 :: link
Election Projection
Cory Booker-inc  +16.7
Solid DEM Hold
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