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Thu. Oct 23, 2014
Republicans 51
Democrats 46
Independents 3
GOP +6, IND +1
Republicans 240
Democrats 195
GOP +6
Republicans 29
Democrats 20
Independents 1
IND +1
2014 Elections on Demand
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November 4, 2014

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2014 Senate Races

House Republicans aren't enjoying the kind of wave election we saw in 2010, but that's not so bad when your ranks can swell despite already owning a healthy majority.  Today's calculations - which include two dozen new House polls - reveal another projected takeover for the GOP in the lower chamber.

Aided by a favorable Saint Leo University poll released last week, Republican challenger Carlos Curbelo has moved ahead of Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia in the very competitive Florida CD-26 race.  This isn't the first time Curbelo has lead here.  Highlighting the closeness of this particular election, the projection has switched parties three times in the last month.  As a result of the flip, the balance of power in the House is now projected to shift to 239 Republicans and 196 Democrats, a net gain of 5 seats for the GOP.

In the Senate, unfavorable news concerning Republican Mike Rounds, once heavily-favored to earn a GOP victory in the 2014 South Dakota Senate election, and the independent run by former Republican Senator Larry Pressler have changed the dynamic in the race to replace Democratic Senator Tim Johnson.  Though still projected to win, Rounds' lead has shrunk.

Like the 2014 Kansas Senate election, South Dakota is becoming an unexpected obstacle in the Republicans' quest to gain the majority in the Senate.  Nevertheless, Election Projection continues to show the GOP netting seven seats - one more than necessary to claim the gavel now possessed by Harry Reid.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:15pm 10/13/14 :: link
Before I get into today's numbers, I want to give you a programming note.  I am currently traveling and will have limited access to the website this week.  So, I'm not sure how much updating I will be able to do between now and the weekend.  However, regular daily updates will resume on Saturday and, barring unforeseen circumstances, continue uninterrupted until Election Day.

Now back to today's new numbers.  In the Senate, Democratic Senator Mark Udall has moved back in front of his Republican challenger, Congressman Cory Gardner in the Colorado Senate election.  Even though Republicans are also projected to lose the seat in Kansas to Independent Greg Orman, the projected majority remains in their sights thanks to 7 other Democratic seats currently leaning their way.

Among the nation's statehouses, the 2014 Georgia governor election, briefly projected to go to Democrat Jason Carter, flips back to red today with Republican Nathan Deal two points in the lead.  The GOP holds the majority of governorships, but that edge is projected to decrease with both the Democrats and an Independent (in Alaska) draining one state executive from the Republican fold.

Finally, we come to the House where we find the third of today's party switchers.  A favorable WeAskAmerica Illinois 12th District poll gives Republican Mike Bost a razor thin 0.2% advantage over incumbent Democrat Bill Enyart in the Illinois 12 District election.  The new projected GOP takeover would give Republicans a net 4-seat gain in the House, shifting the current balance of power to. 238 Republicans and 197 Democrats.

posted by Scott Elliott at 2:08pm 10/06/14 :: link
The 2014 governor election map has undergone several changes over the last two projection updates.  Yesterday, there were two party switchers, one benefitting each party.  Republicans saw Charles Baker overtake Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts governor election, and Democrats enjoyed seeing the Florida governor election go from red to blue as Charlie Crist staked out a 2-point edge on the strength of a favorable SurveyUSA poll.  Baker's first lead of the cycle has moved the Bay State projection from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain, while the Sunshine State's outcome moves in the opposite direction, from Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain.

Yesterday's updates were followed this afternoon by another gubernatorial party switcher.  Colorado incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper, a Democrat locked in a surprisingly tough re-election bid, has led in the last two published Colorado governor polls.  Rasmussen's poll released today has him up four points, but, more importantly, it cycles Quinnipiac's latest out of the calculations.  That Q-poll, most likely an outlier, gave Hick's GOP opponent, Bob Beauprez, a whopping 10-point advantage.  With that survey out, the Colorado governor election is now projected to stay with Hickenlooper by a still-close three-point margin.

All the fun hasn't been limited to the gubernatorial page.  The 2014 Senate elections map also underwent an update yesterday.  Governor Hickenlooper's Democratic colleague on Capitol Hill, first-term Senator Mark Udall, is also in a very tight contest with Republican Congressman Cory Gardner.  Their battle has been an unexpected pick-up opportunity since Gardner announced last spring.

Since mid-September, signs point to Gardner establishing a bit of a lead here.  All four polls conducted since September 10 have put Gardner ahead.  Still, at just +1 point for the challenger, the projection in the 2014 Colorado Senate election will likely move back and forth a few times before the votes are counted.  For now though, this race moves from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  For now, with 8 projected Senate takeovers, it looks like the GOP can weather an Independent takeover in Kansas and still earn the majority in the upper chamber.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:10pm 10/02/14 :: link
After Democrat Chad Taylor decided to bow out of the 2014 Kansas Senate election, Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach ruled, due to the lateness of Taylor's announcement, that the Democrat could not be removed from the ballot.  That ruling has since been overturned by the Kansas Supreme Court.  The biggest beneficiary of the Court's decision is Greg Orman, whose independent candidacy has gathered plenty of support in the Sunflower State.

Republican incumbent Senator Pat Roberts has alienated many in Kansas Republicans and polls show he's now in the fight of his political life.  All three polls released in the last week give Orman outside the margin of error leads, and today's calculation here at Election Projection, which I changed to include just Orman and Roberts, increases Orman's position from Weak IND Gain to Mod IND Gain.  The new projection confirms Orman is the real deal and highlights the seriousness of this unexpected obstacle Republicans face as they try to earn the majority in 2014 Senate elections.

posted by Scott Elliott at 4:57pm 09/23/14 :: link
This article was published Tuesday, September 9 on

How primary results have affected the parties' general election prospects.

Republicans enjoyed a hurricane force wind at their backs going into the 2010 elections.  On Election Day, GOP candidates running for seats in the House realized the full potential of the wave they were riding by earning a massive and historic 63-seat net gain.  However, Republican candidates vying for their place in the Senate did not.  Sure, they did well, picking up six seats in the upper chamber, but they missed out on several additional opportunities.

Amy Walter, National Editor for, points out a major reason why. She writes:

In 2010, in what was a "wave year" just two of the seven toss-up races went to Republicans, though public polling predicted that four of those seven (57 percent) would flip to the GOP.  Terrible GOP candidates like Christine O'Donnell, Sharron Angle, and Ken Buck were the real culprits in the GOP underperformance that year.
Party nominees matter - even in wave elections.  So, with the primary season drawing to a close, let's take a look at the candidates from each party who made it past the qualifying round and evaluate how those choices impact their party's prospects for success in Senate and gubernatorial elections this November.

Thirty-six Senate seats are up for grabs this year.  Twenty-three of them are non-competitive races which the incumbent party is very likely to retain.  The remaining thirteen seats are either competitive or non-competitive projected takeovers (South Dakota, for example).  Coincidentally, thirty-six governorships, of which 14 are currently competitive, are also on tap.  Looking at the primary lineups for these competitive races, we see that they fall into three different categories.

Incumbent Running
Seven senators, 6 Democrats and 1 Republican, are seeking reelection in competitive races this year.  The Democrats are Mark Begich (AK), Mark Pryor (AR), Mark Udall (CO), Mary Landrieu (LA), Jeanne Shaheen (NH) and Kay Hagan (NC).  They are joined by Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY).  Eleven incumbent governors are also facing competitive reelection bids in 2014.  They consist of 8 Republicans and 3 Democrats.

Non-competitive Primaries
Thirteen Senate primary contests from eight different states and twelve gubernatorial primaries in eleven states held primaries that were, well, no contest.  I won't list them all here, but it is worthy to note that in some cases - Arkansas GOP Senate, Georgia DEM Senate, for example - having a non-competitive primary meant the nominee was the top choice of the party from the outset.  In other cases - Michigan GOP Senate, Montana DEM Senate - the absence of primary competition resulted from the best choice deciding against running.

The first two categories are included for completeness.  However, these races are not very useful when evaluating the role of primary voters in their parties' prospects.  Their impact is gleaned best from races which featured a primary election in doubt.

Competitive Primaries
Let's take a look at several of these primaries race by race and grade primary voters on whether they have improved or impaired their parties' chances by the choice they made.

Alaska Senate (GOP)
Republicans here are salivating at the opportunity to unseat Mark Begich in this conservative state.  Three high profile candidates vied for that honor.  GOP voters made the right choice by selecting Former Alaska Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan.  While Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell would have given Begich a strong challenge, Republicans avoided a concession by not picking lightning rod Joe Miller.  GRADE: A

Georgia Senate (GOP)
Businessman David Perdue and Congressman Jack Kingston got the most votes in the primary election.  However, since neither was able to eclipse the requisite 50% +1 to avoid a runoff, Georgia Republicans had to return to the ballot box a month later to finalize their pick.  They get high marks for picking Perdue, but the prolonged runoff period subjected the nominee to more intra-party conflict and gave Democrat Michelle Nunn a longer grace period.  GRADE: B

Iowa Senate (GOP)
The biggest accomplishment by GOP primary voters here was to avoid having the state convention decide their nominee.  Joni Ernst, who has an enviable bio well-suited to run for public office, captured more than enough votes to earn the nomination outright.  A convention-brokered selection could have resulted in an untenable general election option.  GRADE: A

North Carolina Senate (GOP)
Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan is one of the more vulnerable incumbents in the Senate this cycle, and Tarheel Republicans had at least three viable options who were faring well, pre-primary, against her in the polls.  Thom Tillis, the GOP establishment candidate, prevailed, avoiding a potentially damaging runoff in the process.  While Tea Party fans aren't as keen on the career politician as they would have been with either physician Greg Brannon or Pastor Mark Harris, Tillis is an electable choice in the general election - and avoiding that runoff is a big positive.  GRADE: A-

Colorado Governor (GOP)
Primary voters on the Republican side get high marks for not nominating unelectable Tom Tancredo.  They settled on Bob Beauprez, 2006 gubernatorial nominee, by just 3 points over Tancredo in a four-way race.  And while Beauprez was not impressive in his failed bid for governor 8 years ago, he has seemed a stronger candidate so far this year.  GRADE: A-

Hawaii Governor (DEM)
Democratic voters in the Aloha state made history this year by handing Neil Abercrombie the largest primary defeat of a sitting governor in U.S. history.  Judging from pre-primary polling, they made a great move in doing so.  As a result, they have improved their chances of keeping this deeply blue state in the fold.  State Senator David Ige still trails Republican nominee Duke Aiona, Jr. in the polls (ed. note: not anymore), but he has the potential of staging the comeback Abercrombie could not.  GRADE: A+

Illinois Governor (GOP)
Bruce Rauner has the funds to finance his campaign for governor.  That's important in a state that contains the expensive Chicago media market.  Also, as a political newcomer, he doesn't have the track record the other Republican contenders have.  That's likely a good thing as well in this race against a wily, battle-tested incumbent like Democrat Pat Quinn.  GRADE: A

Wisconsin Governor (DEM)
Democrats would like to get rid of Scott Walker perhaps more than any other governor.  He survived their recall election in 2012 and has taken steps to undermine their power base in the state.  Democratic primary voters selected educator Mary Burke to take him on in 2014.  Judging from how she is performing in the polls so far, it looks like they have made a good choice.  As of this writing, Election Projection shows Burke defeating Walker by a fraction.  GRADE: A

That's a lot of good grades!  Unlike the Republican primary disasters noted by Walter, this year's primary results show that voters from both parties have done a good job picking the right nominees to make the most of their general election opportunities.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:07pm 09/15/14 :: link
Yesterday, voters went to the polls in the last four primaries of the 2014 Election season (if you don't count Louisiana's open primary on Election Day).  The final four states were Delaware, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and New Hampshire, where Scott Brown won the GOP nomination to set up his much anticipated battle against Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen.  The other noteworthy result from yesterday was John Tierney's loss in the Democratic primary in Massachusetts' 6th District.  Tierney's defeat marked the first time this election that a Democratic incumbent failed to survive a primary challenge.

I'm always glad when no more primaries remain on the calendar because that means I can finalize all the races I'm tracking here at Election Projection.  This election, I'm tracking 116 races in all - 36 Senate, 44 House and 36 Governors.  The projection update I'll post later this evening will include all finalized matchups - no more undetermined candidates.

So today we begin the 8-week sprint to the finish line.  The year is shaping up to be a good year for Republicans and signs are starting to indicate it may be "wave-worthy" yet.  Regardless, I hope you'll make Election Projection a routine source for your election news and numbers.  I'll be updating the projections with new polls every day, Monday-Saturday, from now until my final projections on Election Eve.  Strap in and hold on - it's going to be an exciting ride!

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:01pm 09/10/14 :: link
A second poll dump from the collaboration between CBS, The New York Times and YouGov has shaken up the numbers here at Election Projection, producing a total of eight Senate rating changes.  However, despite all the movement, the projected balance of power in the 2014 Senate elections remains unchanged at 51-46-3.  The Iowa Senate election is back in the Democratic fold with Bruce Braley forging a small lead over Republican Joni Ernst, but Democrat incumbent Mark Begich is now projected to lose the Alaska Senate election to Republican Dan Sullivan.

Here is the list of rating changes in today's projection update:

Today's Rating Changes
Election Old Rating New Rating
Alaska Senate Weak DEM Hold Weak GOP Gain
Hawaii Senate Strong DEM Hold Solid DEM Hold
Iowa Senate Weak GOP Gain Weak DEM Hold
Kentucky Senate Weak GOP Hold Mod GOP Hold
Minnesota Senate Strong DEM Hold Mod DEM Hold
New Jersey Senate Mod DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
Oklahoma Governor Mod GOP Hold Solid GOP Hold
Oregon Senate Solid DEM Hold Strong DEM Hold
South Carolina Senate Solid GOP Hold Strong GOP Hold
In addition to the eight Senate rating changes - which split evenly between the parties - the list also includes a change in the Oklahoma governor election.  GOP Governor Mary Fallin moves comfortably ahead of Democratic challenger Joe Dorman.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:14pm 09/08/14 :: link
Last week saw two major developments in the elections this year.  In Alaska, Democrats abandoned their frontal assault on Republican Governor Sean Parnell and merged their nominee, Byron Mallott, into the ticket of Independent Bill Walker.  By engineering a deal where Mallott becomes Walker's lt. governor candidate, Democrats hope to pool the Democratic and other non-GOP vote to overwhelm Parnell's support and unseat the incumbent.

In a three-way race, Parnell held a large lead in the polls but struggled to get to 40% with the combined Mallott/Walker vote edging into the low 40's.  The new two-man race between Parnell and Walker has been polled but once - a prior Public Policy Polling survey.  Parnell's new found challenge is highlighted by the poll which gives him a scant 1-point lead over Walker, 41-40.  This race has moved from Solid GOP Hold to a much more competitive Weak GOP Hold.

The other significant shift occurred in the Kansas Senate election where Democratic Chad Taylor announced he was withdrawing from the race.  After Kansas Secretary of State Kris Koback (R) ruled Taylor would not be removed from the ballot, the Democrat reiterated that he would not serve if elected.  The net of his decision is that Republicans find themselves with yet another very challenging race in this deep red state.

Now, in addition to trying to save embattled Governor Sam Brownback, Sunflower State Republicans must also fret over a two-way race between their incumbent, Senator Pat Roberts, and upstart Independent Greg Orman.  As in the race for Alaska governor, I could find but one poll testing the new matchup.  It isn't good news for the red team.  I'm doubtful the poll's findings will be confirmed by subsequent polling, but for now, Orman takes a commanding 10-point lead in the 2014 Kansas Senate election.

Until we have further polling data, this race moves from a Mod GOP Hold to a Strong IND Gain, our first Independent pick-up.  The projected tally in the Senate now stands at 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 3 Independents.  As you can see, Republicans are still projected to take the majority, but Kansas' sudden competitiveness complicates their efforts to make that quest a reality.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:09am 09/06/14 :: link
This week's news has been full of stories concerning Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and her dubious Louisiana residency.  This new scandal comes on the heels of last month's revelation of her dubious use of taxpayer money.  Even before these damaging reports hit the airways, Landrieu was numbered among the most vulnerable incumbent senators in 2014.

Rasmussen released a poll today that provides an indication that the scandals are having a negative effect on her already teetering re-election chances.  The poll finds her 3 points behind Republican Bill Cassidy, 44% to 41%.  That's a six-point swing in Cassidy's favor from Rasmussen's July survey which had Landrieu up by a 46-43 count.

As a result of this new poll, the calculations here at Election Projection move Cassidy into the lead in the 2014 Louisiana Senate election, shifting the projection from Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain.  The Republicans are now projected to earn seven takeovers in the Senate and take a 52-46-2 majority.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:53pm 09/04/14 :: link
The Battleground Poll, a collaboration between the Republican Tarrance Group and the Democratic Lake Research pollsters, released its latest findings this week.  The topline generic congressional ballot poll gives Republicans a 4-point edge over Democrats, 46-42.  That is positive news for the red team to be sure, but it doesn't necessarily herald a coming GOP wave.

For Republicans looking to reclaim the Senate, however, a deeper look into the poll seems to offer more substantial encouragement.  Ed Goeas, representing The Tarrance Group, points out how the GOP advantages go beyond the 4-point topline lead.

In states with a competitive US Senate race, Republicans hold a sixteen point advantage (52%-36%) on this generic ballot.  Not only are Republicans getting stronger support on the generic ballot from "hard" Republicans (93%) than Democrats are getting from "hard" Democrats (89%), "soft" Republicans are voting a net sixteen-points stronger for the generic Republican on the ballot than "soft" Democrats are voting for the generic Democrat.  By any measure, Republicans are fired up and ready to deliver victories to their candidates in November, with of the strong backing of Independent (+15-points) and middle class voters (+11-points).
The 16-point lead in states where competitive Senate races are being held is a bit misleading considering the preponderance of red states in that group, but I see two positives for the GOP, nonetheless.  First, the data confirm that Republicans should have little problem keeping control of the House.  Second, the GOP is poised to take the lion's share of these Senate races, and, in doing so, stand a great chance of winning the Senate, perhaps by a good margin.

With the 2016 Senate election slate looking like a very difficult climate for Republicans in the upper chamber, it probably will take a cushion of 3 or 4 seats to avoid having that majority turn into a one-hit wonder.  Election Projection currently projects 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 2 Independents.  That's a net Republican gain of six seats in the 2014 Senate elections.

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:05pm 09/03/14 :: link
With Labor Day, summer break's symbolic end, behind us, the 2014 election season is underway in earnest.  The next 9 weeks will witness ever-increasing interest in the upcoming elections as part-time political observers start turning their attention to who is running for office - and who's projected to win.

So, if you're looking for a good time to take a baseline measurement, today's Senate House and gubernatorial numbers here at Election Projection provide a useful starting point.  Will this cycle fulfill its current promise of a status-quo election, or will Republicans start to see a wave building as interest builds and likely voter models become better defined?  As they say, only time will tell, but I hope you'll make Election Projection a daily stop as we keep our finger on the pulse of the American electorate, 2014 edition.

posted by Scott Elliott at 2:39pm 09/02/14 :: link
Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue have held the title CEO, but in very different circumstances.  In their race for the open seat Georgia Senate election, both are trying to cast the other in a bad light because of their former executive position.  The Telegraph from Macon, GA notes their respective strategies.
Both candidates are political newcomers who see their business backgrounds as key to wooing independent voters in a race that has garnered national attention as Republicans seek control of the Senate.  The candidates also see an opportunity in attacking their opponent's business record as they look to the general election.
Nunn highlights her position's philanthropic efforts.
"David and I do have different real world experiences," Nunn said at a recent candidate forum. "I have an experience that has been about lifting people up over the last 26 years, building and growing organizations and getting things done for the people of Georgia in a collaborative way, a proven way of working across differences and party lines."
While Perdue touts his past experience dealing with the practical issues involved in running a private sector business and improving economic prospects.
"My issue isn't so much how she ran that organization," Perdue said. "It's just that that leadership does not prepare you, in my mind, to deal with issues we have in a free-enterprise system. I want to focus on why my background is more appropriate to lead in the Senate in regard to bringing economic and free-enterprise solutions to fix the problems that we have with the economy today."
This race continues to be a close battle - one of just two featuring seats currently held by Republicans (the Kentucky Senate race is the other).  Election Projection rates the contest a Weak GOP Hold with Perdue ahead at the moment by 2.8 points.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:29pm 08/30/14 :: link
This actually makes sense.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate Scott Brown is calling on Congress to "immediately" pass legislation that would strip homegrown terrorists of their American citizenship.

Brown's request comes following a Washington Times report indicating that as many as 300 Americans are fighting alongside ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

"One of the greatest threats facing the homeland today is the mayhem that will happen when hundreds of American ISIS fighters return to the United States to spread their terror here," Brown said. "Their goal is to march down Pennsylvania Avenue and plant a flag at the White House, and mass killing is their means for achieving that goal... We need to keep our country safe by stopping these American ISIS fighters from re-entering the country."

Throwing your lot in with a group who has openly vowed to shed the blood of Americans should absolutely render your U.S. citizenship null and void.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:45pm 08/29/14 :: link
Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen took exception to Scott Brown's answer to a question on climate change at the GOP primary forum in New Hampshire on Saturday.  Brown is the likely GOP primary winner and thus Shaheen's likely general election opponent.
At a debate over the weekend, New Hampshire US Senate hopeful Scott Brown weighed in on climate change, later prompting a sharp response from Jeanne Shaheen, the senator he is hoping to unseat.

During the lightning round of a GOP primary forum on Saturday, the moderator asked: "Do you believe that the theory of manmade climate change has been scientifically proven?"

[] Brown said, "uh, no."

On Monday, Shaheen responded to a news story about Brown’s answer.  "Scott Brown is wrong.  Climate change is very real, and here in New Hampshire we are already seeing consequences," she said in a statement.

At this point, 2 weeks away from New Hampshire's September 9 primary, Shaheen is projected to keep the seat in Democratic hands.  The preliminary rating here at Election Projection is Strong DEM Hold.  That will likely change after the primaries are over and the official, poll-driven numbers are calculated.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:07pm 08/26/14 :: link
Last summer, the House passed the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act in an attempt to ban nationwide abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy.  The Democratic-led Senate has yet to bring the measure to a vote.  Pro-life groups have trained their criticism for the lack of a Senate vote on vulnerable Senate Democrats in Arkansas, Colorado and North Carolina.
The Susan B. Anthony List, Students for Life of America, Family Research Council Action, and Concerned Women for America are launching a multi-state "Summer of life" tour this week that will take aim at Sens. Mark Udall of Colorado, Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and aim to bring awareness to the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which would curb abortions after 5 months.
All three are locked in tough re-election battles.  Election Projection currently numbers the Arkansas Senate and North Carolina Senate elections among six projected GOP takeovers on the 2014 Senate map.  The Colorado Senate election is a close one as well, currently listed as a Weak DEM Hold.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:44pm 08/26/14 :: link
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