Poll: Generic presidential, which party wins the White House in 2008?
This week's Election Projection Weekly Poll is up. Without considering the individuals who will eventually rise to the top
of the respective political parties, this edition of the poll asks which party you think will emerge victorious in November, 2008. Will a Democrat
complete the takeover trifeta begun last November in the House and Senate? Or will a Republican keep the GOP run in the Oval Office intact?
The poll is located in the right sidebar. Cast your vote and then discuss it here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05am 01/29/07
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A purple Mountain West? Not just yet
Some folks in the business of political prognosticating look at the 2006 election results and see a swelling Democratic trend.
They like to point to the Mountain West states from Montana and Idaho to Arizona and New Mexico as evidence. Stuart Rothenberg, a respected
prognosticator himself, says "Not so fast!"
In an article published at Realclearpolitics.com he
takes a detailed look at the numbers and doesn't see such a trend. In his piece, he concludes..
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The Mountain West is not the South. It's less reliable than Dixie for Republicans, and it's less conservative on social/religious issues.
Moreover, Democrats have had considerable success in the region over the past three decades, and the party's nominee could carry a few Mountain West
states in the '08 presidential race, particularly if there is a nationwide trend toward their party. But the evidence strongly demonstrates that
there has been no Democratic surge in the region, even if the hyperbole makes for a better news story.
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I encourage you to read the whole article to see how he comes to this conclusion.
Update: I initially posted the author as Michael Barone. The article was actually written by Stuart Rothenberg; I've posted the
correction. Also, as one astute reader points out, the premise of the article is not that the Mountain West remains red, but that is it not trending
blue. In reality, the region has long shown a purplish (is that a word?) tendency. I apologize for the mischaracterization.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:50am 01/29/07
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Thursday, January 25, 2007
The Hill Blog
I found my way to Dick Morris' recent article
at The Hill. It's a good read which in part affirms the good that has come out of President Bush's time in office. But that's not the point
of this post. While there, I noticed a link to The Hill's Congress Blog. "The Hill Blog" is a
compilation of posts from elected officials and other bigwigs on Capitol Hill. If you want a more intimate mosaic of what our congresspeople are
thinking, you should visit there often. I highly recommend it. You'll get viewpoints from both sides of the aisle.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:55pm 01/25/07
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Live-blogging the SOTU address
No, not me. But lots of bloggers did live-blog it last night. Here's a
partial list. Good place to start if you're looking for reactions to the
speech.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:50pm 01/24/07
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Tuesday, January 23, 2007
State of the Union address tonight
President Bush will address the nation tonight. Reports indicate domestic issues will be at the forefront. I will not
be able to listen to it tonight due to other committments. However, I will be interested to hear what you think of it. Please post your
thoughts and reactions in the comment thread here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:30pm 01/23/07
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Monday, January 22, 2007
Poll: What about Hillary's chances?
I'm reinitating the weekly poll feature here at Election Projection. With Hillary's big announcement recently, I thought it
would be appropriate to see what my readers think of her chances. Can she win the nomination? Will she win it all? Tell me what you
think. The poll is located in the right sidebar. Cast your vote and then discuss it here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45am 01/22/07
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Doubting Hillary
Sen. Clinton is running for president. She is a headlining Democrat, and she could be considered the front-runner at this
point. But will she win? I learned in the 90's to never underestimate a Clinton. Hillary has methodically and purposefully - and
skillfully, I might add - laid the groundwork for a legitimate run. She has moved toward the center, both rhetorically and with her vote in the
Senate, while maintaining the approval of her liberal base. She has pursued and obtained clout among her colleagues on Capitol Hill with an
efficiency that is quite impressive for someone with her limited seniority. And she possesses fund raising prowess that has few rivals.
It is interesting, given all this, that
many are
questioning her
chances of
winning the White House in 2008. Making any
predictions at this point is nothing more than throwing darts, of course, and the doubts which abound about Hillary serve to illustrate just how
difficult it is to become the President of the United States of America, even for the well-heeled and politically skilled.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00am 01/22/07
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Commenting on again
I've turned commenting back on. Please remember my commenting policy - no profanity, no personal attacks.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:10am 01/22/07
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Tuesday, January 16, 2007
That's why elections matter
I've received several emails from conservative groups sounding a great alarm. It appears one of the agenda items being
floated by the new Democratic majority will, if enacted, undermine the ability of grass roots organizations to influence their government.
Supposedly, this "curtailment of free speech" will be included in the ethics reform legislation on tap on Capitol Hill. The details of the plan
are fuzzy to me, and they are not actually of import to this post.
What is important to me at this point is the fact that the Democrats are in power now. Should they be passing laws that hinder legitimate
free speech - if that is indeed the case? Absolutely not. Should agencies like the ones who have sent me email alerts do what they can to keep
that from happening? Absolutely. But the hard truth is the Democrats have the authority, if not the moral justification, to enact whatever
they please, a presidential veto notwithstanding. How did they get that power? If you are a conservative who "sent the GOP a message" by
staying home or voting third party, I've got a message for you. Take a look in the mirror. YOU are the reason.
Make sure you don't commit the same error in the future. Regardless of how poorly the GOP acted like the conservatives they were supposed
to be, liberal power in Washington is so much worse. We're only beginning to pay for our temper tantrum last November.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45am 01/09/07
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Sunday, January 7, 2007
Introducing Political Yard
A subscriber to Election Projection Premium Content has started a pretty cool website over at
Political Yard. The creator says he's only 18 - very talented young man, I'd say. It looks to
be a news aggregator with some blogging mixed in. Stop over there often for a good news round-up. Welcome to my blogroll, Charlie!
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:20pm 01/07/07
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Amniotic stem cells
It looks like one of the society's hot buttons may get a chance to cool off. The debate over embryonic stem cell research
may become obselete if the promise of stem cells in amniotic fluid is realized.
This is great news for science, for the suffering and sick, and for our nation's conscience.
From a strictly political standpoint, it is also great news for the GOP.
More than any other issue, embryonic stem-cell research threatens to undermine Republican political viability in many areas. With the vast
majority of Americans favoring this type of research and many of the GOP power-brokers and rank-and-file GOP faithful opposed to it, another source for
stem cells is a huge development, one that could mean disaster in future elections has been averted.
However, I predict the pro-choice crowd will not let this issue rest in peace. The debate over embryonic stem cells provides such promise for
the pro-choice movement to gain an advantage among the electorate that they will fight to keep the divisiveness alive and kicking.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:50pm 01/07/07
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Wednesday, January 3, 2007
2006 Election results posted
I've compiled results of all the races I tracked during this election season. You can see how the projections fared against
the actual results by checking out the charts here. To see how the projected margins matched up, subscribers can
check out the numbers here.
"Name Your Price" subscriptions - valid through November, 2007 - are still available to anyone who wants a detailed look back at all the close races.
Click here for more information and to sign up.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:45pm 01/03/07
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Tuesday, January 2, 2007
One more falls to the Democrats
I know this is old news, but I wanted to cover my bases. During my hiatus, the GOP lost another seat in the House.
The runoff in Texas CD-23 in December went to the challenger, Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, over incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla. This outcome
increases the Democratic hold in the House to 31 seats, 233 to 202.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:35pm 01/02/07
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Monday, Jaunuary 1, 2007
Happy New Year!!
After a much-needed rest, The Blogging Caesar is back. Let me wish each of you a Happy New Year. I'm in the process
of posting the results of last year's elections and will resume commenting on political topics during the "election off-season" of 2007. Also,
I plan on re-enabling the comment threads in a few days, so stayed tuned for that.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:30pm 01/01/07
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