And the really big, really huge question, will another vacancy open up on the court before a Democrat takes up residence in the White House?  In light of the ages of each Justice now seated, it is highly likely that if an opening does occur, it will be among the liberals.  Imagine the fight if, say, Justice Stevens is no longer on the court sometime in the next 2 years.  This Alito confirmation process will be like a cap gun battle by comparison.  One more conservative on the Court and America will fundamentally change.

Week before last, Election Projection's Weekly Poll asked how many senators would vote to confirm Alito.  Associated with it was a contest in which my readers ventured their predictions of how many Republicans, Democrats, and Jeffords would vote yea.  The actual yea vote was 54 GOP, 4 DEMs, 0 Jeffords.

Congratulations to Ken Adair who got very close to the actual totals.  He correctly predicted 54 GOP and 0 Jeffords.  His prediction of 5 DEMs was only one off.  Nice going, Ken, you're the winner!

Honorable Mention:  Long time reader and commenter Tim J predicted 54 GOP, 6 DEMs, and 0 Jeffords.

If the story sticks and Burns is as involved as the evidence seems to indicate, he may be as good as gone.  However, I don't think there will be as big a bruhaha about this as Democrats hope, and if the Senator can effectively spin the fact that he returned the money he received from Abramoff and associates, he should come out ok.  A key indicator to watch will be his job approval numbers going forward.  In Survey USA's latest poll, conducted in December before the news of Burns divesting himself of the tainted funds, shows him slipping into the mid 40's.  He must get those numbers back above 50 to have much of a chance at re-election.

On a positive note for the incumbent, Burns was able to defeat the perfect Democrat candidate in now-Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000 - even while many GOP Senate incumbents were losing - and this time he will not face such a juggernaught.  Whom he will face is uncertain, and the competition between two or more legitimate Democrat challengers insures a primary battle which could weaken the Democrat nominee.  Vying for the party spot on the ballot are John Morrison, Montana State Auditor, Jon Tester, Montana State Senator, and former Montana State Representative Paul Richards.

Given The Blogging Caesar's hunch that Abramoff will not generate the political spoils which the Democrats expect, I'm giving this race to the incumbent for now.  If I'm wrong on Abramoff, this will be one of the first to go the other way.

Governor and House Races:  The aforementioned Governor Schweitzer is not up for re-election this year, and Montana's at-large House position is comfortably GOP.

Check out more on Montana here.

Update:  As if it wasn't already, Alito's confirmation is now all but certain.

Four years removed from that period of unusual circumstances, Talent is seeking re-election to a first full term.  In Missouri, as is fitting a bellweather, the partisan divide is very close.  Some of the closest races in recent memory have come from Missouri - Talent himself won by only 22,000 votes out of over 2 million in 2002 - and this one promises to be another one.  The Democrat picked to run against him is State Auditor Claire McCaskill.  Having a prominent opponent who has already won a statewide election makes Talent's task uncertain at best.  His approval ratings have been right at 50%, suggesting he is vulnerable.  However, disapproval has dropped below 40%.  The Blogging Caesar thinks Missourians will view Talent as "good enough" and re-elect him by a close but comfortable margin over McCaskill.  It'll be a weak GOP hold, say 52%-48%.

Governor and House Races:  Republican Governor Matt Blunt's next election is 2008.  Missouri's 9 House delegates are all safe in 2006.

Check out more on Missouri here.

Survey USA is a well-respected polling organization, and they periodically post polling results on a state-by-state basis.  Earlier this month, they conducted a poll to determine Bush's job approval in each state.  The results, when viewed in the light of correlation I've just illustrated, would surely make one Senator John Kerry wish the election were today instead of 15 months ago.

Of the 50 states, Bush reaches 50% job approval in only 11, representing a paltry 85 electoral votes.  Even if you give Bush the benefit of the doubt in states where Bush's job approval is 47% or better, he still would only end up with 115 EVs.  That leaves 423 for Kerry, and that's a landslide.  On the other hand, it is interesting that, amid the Abu Graib scandal in May of 2004, my projection showed Kerry would win 337 EVs.  Perhaps not a landslide, but a substantial victory nonetheless.

I believe there is an old saying that fits here very well.  "Timing is everything."  When it comes to the re-election of George W. Bush, truer words were never spoken.

Governor and House Races:  Republican Haley Barbour is not up for re-election until next year, and Mississippi's evenly divided House delegation will easily remain 2 DEM and 2 GOP.

Check out more on Mississippi here.

By all accounts, Samuel Alito is supremely qualified to sit on the Supreme Court.  No one questions his legal fortitude, and there are no skeletons rattling in his closet.  Yet every single Democrat on the judiciary committee voted against him, and it appears just about all Democratic senators will vote no when his nomination comes before the full Senate.  They are not voting against his qualifications, but against his ideology.  It is scary to me to think that Senate Democrats are now setting the precedent that Supreme Court nominees must meet the ideological approval of the opposition party to gain their vote.  Conservatives can only thank God that we are in the majority and pray that we maintain that majority.  And Democrats need to pray, should a Democrat succeed President Bush, that the Republicans don't impose their will on their guy (or gal) the way Biden, Kennedy, et al, are doing to Bush.

Second, the Alito confirmation contest will wrap up today at 5pm EST.  I'll insert a marker in the comment thread, and only predictions entered above that marker will count.  If you haven't participated, click here:    to enter your prediction.  And, if you haven't already, be sure to cast your vote in the poll related to Alito on the right sidebar.

Finally, a new poll will be up some time later tonight.  After the release of a McCain vs. Hillary poll just recently, I think I'll conduct a similar poll here at Election Projection.

Update:  Alito contest is now closed.  I'll post the closest prediction after the vote.

To his credit, however, Dayton saw the provebial writing on the wall and decided to forego a run at re-election.  His decision tranformed this race from leaning Republican to a true tossup.  The Democrats (DFL) who are running for the nomination are Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar and former congressional candidate Patty Wetterling.  Klobuchar is the probable primary winner and will make a very formidable opponent to Kennedy in November.  At this point, this race is razor close.

The Blogging Caesar originally had this race going ever so slightly to the GOP.  However, a major factor in that pick was a primary battle I thought would damage the eventual Democratic nominee.  That expectation arose from a mistaken list of Dems in the running.  I had previously included two other candidates which are not actually running, and their absence clears the way for Klobuchar to emerge from the primary without much of a battle.  So, I'm changing my call on this one.  I'm making it a weak Dem hold for Klobuchar.

Governor's Race:  Tim Pawlenty won the Governorship of Minnesota with only 44.4% of the vote.  That's not too remarkable in Minnesota who elected an independent in 1998 (Jesse "The Body" Ventura).  This year, he will probably need more than that to win.  Pawlenty's success as Governor - his approval has skyrocketed to +24% in recent weeks - bodes well for his re-election plans.  Yet, Minnesota's aforementioned Democratic (DFL) lean makes him somewhat vulnerable.

So far, Mike Hatch, Attorney General, and State Senators Steve Kelley and Becky Lourey are in the running for the Democratic (DFL) nomination.  All are legitimate contenders, but The Blogging Caesar predicts Pawlenty to ride his positive approval numbers to a weak GOP hold.

House District 2:  I wouldn't consider this race competitive except for the candidacy of Coleen Rowley.  Rowley is a former FBI agent and nationally recognized whistleblower.  Even with the celebrity in the race, The Blogging Caesar believes John Kline will keep his seat.  Call it a (not-so) weak GOP hold.

House District 6:  Mark Kennedy's quest for a Senate seat will leave his current House seat empty.  Three state legislators, State Senator Michele Bachmann, and State Representatives Jim Knoblach and Philip Krinkie will duke it out for the GOP nod, while former Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg is the presumed choice of the Democrats.  Even though Tinklenberg will not face a primary fight, The Blogging Caesar predicts District 6, which is much more Republican than Minnesota overall, will remain in GOP hands.

Check out more on Minnesota here.

Update:  Due to an incorrect list of candidates running for the Democratic Senate nomination, I mistakenly called that race for the GOP.  I've updated the list and my call.  The result is posted now.

I recently watched for the second time the movie Remember the Titans.  In case you didn't see it, the movie tells the story of T.C. Williams High School's football team in Virginia in 1971.  Forcibly integrated by federal mandate, the school picks a black man, played by Denzel Washington, as its head football coach.  A highly successful white coach, Bill Yoast, played by Will Patton, is passed over for the job in favor of Washington's Coach Herman Boone.  Yoast instead agrees to be Coach Boone's assistant.

Amid racially charged and violent times, Boone, with the admirable support and humility of Yoast, brings his team together.  Animosity between the white players and the black players turns to tolerance, acceptance, then respect, and, finally, genuine friendship.  The story is a wonderful testimony to the value of every human being, regardless of the color of one's skin.  It is the very living out of Dr. King's immortal vision of racial harmony.  Add to that T.C. Williams' remarkable undefeated championship season, and you have a poignant demonstration of what can be accomplished when people come together.

I salute Dr. King for his vision and the resolve he showed to make it reality.  True racial harmony will not come at the hand of legislation, though that was necessary to break down the walls of segregation.  Rather, it will be through a transformation of people's hearts and minds to look past the covering we all wear on the outside and into the heart which bears our true identity.

Dr. King inspired us all to judge a person not by the color of his skin but by the content of his heart.  Oh, that this would be the steadfast resolution of each and every one of us today.  Dr. King, I share your vision.  Thank you for your life, your works, and your inspiration.  America is a better place because of you.

EP Contest:  As an added twist, I'm opening up this comment thread for a contest.  All Election Projection readers are eligible to participate.  I would like for everyone to enter the exact count of Republican, Democrat, and Independent (Jeffords) senators they believe will vote for Alito.  The reader(s) who is closest to the actual result will receive mention in this blog after the vote takes place.  Want to see you name in lights?  Enter your prediction now. 

Update:  Alito contest is now closed.  I'll post the closest predictions after the vote.

The GOP appears to have settled on their candidate to see just how vulnerable Granholm truly is.  Amway co-founder Dick DeVos is the one, and he will have many millions of his own money at his disposal during the election season.  While the funds to wage an effective campaign will be working for DeVos, the partisan leaning of Michigan will not.  If this were a red state like Arizona, Granholm's approval ratings would indicate a GOP takeover.  But this is not a red state, so Granholm is probably safe.  We'll have to see what kind of candidate DeVos turns out to be.  If his candidacy catches on with voters here, I may change this race's rating.  But for now, The Blogging Caesar calls it a weak Dem hold.

Senate Race:  The same partisan current from which Michigan's governor benefits is also fortifying Michigan's Democratic junior senator.  Freshman incumbent Debbie Stabenow has been in the GOP's sights since she upset another Senate freshman, Spencer Abraham, in 2000.  Add to that her less-than-stellar job approval - she has consistently polled under 50% approval - and a GOP victory would seem very possible.

So far, three Republicans have answer the call to unseat Stabenow.  Oakland County Sheriff and former Michigan State Senate Majority Leader Mike Bouchard is the frontrunner, though former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler, an African-American, could mount a legitimate challenge for the party nomination.  Reverend Jerry Zandstra is also running.  Bouchard would probably be the strongest match against Stabenow, especially given that Oakland County is an important swing district in Mighigan.

Amid all this talk of the GOP gaining Stabenow's seat, two facts remain.  Michigan is still a blue state, and polls have shown her besting her potential rivals by substantial margins.  I know polls this far out can change drastically as Election Day approaches, and I'm not giving up on this seat just yet.  Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar must deem this race a weak Dem hold for the time being.

Check out more on Michigan here.

Things are about to change, though.  Current Governor Mitt Romney is stepping down next year after one term, and The Blogging Caesar sees the race to succeed him leaning toward the Democrats.  Once again, the GOP will field a credible candidate as Romney's Lt. Governor Kerry Healey is the likely GOP nominee.  However, unlike recent elections here, the Democrats also have a solid candidate on tap.  He is Massachusetts Attorney General Thomas Reilly.  If he can get past former U.S. Deputy Attorney General Deval Patrick, which I expect he will, Reilly should become Massachusetts' next governor.  If Patrick wins the primary, I will revisit my projection.  Right now, I'll take Reilly in primary and make this race a weak DEM gain.

Senate Race:  Ted Kennedy, the most prominent mouthpiece of ultra-liberalism on Capitol Hill, is seeking re-election.  Do I really need to say it?  Strong DEM hold.

Check out more on Massachusetts here.

This time, Ehrlich has neither a black running mate to run with nor an unpopular opponent to run against.  As a result, The Blogging Caesar fully expects Marylanders to resort to their natural tendencies and elect a Democrat in 2006.  Which Democrat remains to be seen.  Two are set to wage a primary battle for the right to face Ehrlich.  I'll give Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley and his celebrity the edge over Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan right now.  Either gentleman would most likely prevail in November, however.  Rate this as another governorship gain for the Democrats.

Senate Race:  Democrat Paul Sarbanes is retiring after 5 terms in the Senate and 3 terms in the House before that.  Chasing after this open Senate seat is a popular African-American, Republican Lt. Gov Michael Steele.  Given these factors, some Republicans are optimistic about the GOP's chances to capture another Senate seat in a land of the Democrats.  While Steele is probably the ideal GOP candidate for Maryland, The Blogging Caesar is not optimistic about his prospects.  I'm rating this race a weak DEM hold.

Democratic contestant Kweisi Mfume, were he to win the nomination, might make a Steele victory possible.  I am confident, however, that Mfume will definitely NOT be on the ballot in November, 2006.  Instead, U.S. Rep. Ben Cardin, a senior member of the state's national delegation, will be the party pick.  This race is sure to garner a lot of national attention, but in the end, it will be just another state majority party victory.

Check out more on Maryland here.

Update:  By way of clarification, saying Roe v. Wade legalized abortion is an over-simplification.  In fact, Roe v. Wade struck down a Texas statute prohibiting abortion and by association deemed unconstitutional a large body of state-mandated prohibitions and restrictions on abortions.  In effect, though, most abortions were made legal by that decision.

Given Maine's Democratic leaning, one might think a Democrat in the Statehouse would not need to sweat re-election.  However, like in many other New England states, the GOP has shown the ability to contest well for the top job.  Baldacci's low approval numbers reveal his vulnerability.  It would not be surprising for the GOP to take another New England governorship here in 2006.  However, The Blogging Caesar maintains that Maine's Democratic tendencies and Baldacci's incumbency will overcome the obstacles which confront the Governor and give him another term.  I'll call it a weak hold, though.

Senate Race:  Republican incumbent Olympia Snowe is by no means a conservative stalwart for the GOP.  If she were, she'd have no chance of winning one of Maine's seats in the Senate.  As a liberal Republican, however, she does quite well here.  Democrats are finding it hard to find a credible candidate to challenge her.  Couple that with Snowe's ridiculously high approval, and this one's easy to call:  Strong GOP hold.

Check out more on Maine here.

Hat tip:  Jonah at The Corner

First, Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon can credit his office to a fortunate series of breaks during Election 2004.  In the general election that year, the GOP received 59% of votes cast.  In fact, Melancon's 24% bested third-place finisher Republican Craig Romero by just 1%.  In Louisiana, the top two vote-getters face each other in a December runoff election if no one is able to capture a majority of the vote in November.  Gaining a spot in the runoff by just that 1%, Melancon's chances at winning in December seemed dismal.  Add to the mix that his opponent happened to the be son of the current representative of District 3, and most observers felt a GOP victory was very likely.  However, due to the nastiness of the contest between GOP frontrunner Billy Tauzin III and Romero, the latter declined to endorse his fellow GOPer.  Somehow, in a district that President Bush carried by 58% and that featured the son of the GOP incumbent, Melancon snuck away with 50.2% of the vote.

His improbable victory is only the beginning, however.  As we all know, Louisiana was ravaged last year by terrible hurricane Katrina.  District 3 endured a lion's share of that pounding, and many of the residents here have fled.  The ramifications of this exodus and the uncertain return of those displaced add more confusion to the eventual outcome of the congressional race here. 

Finally, Melancon's opponent this time is none other than State Senator Craig Romero.  As you can see, this race is interesting to say the least.  Under normal circumstances, I would side with the challenger in this GOP-leaning district.  Of course, there is nothing normal about these circumstances.  In the end, I think Melancon will benefit from his visibility in the recovery from Katrina.  Much like a president benefits in a time of war, I believe a congressman such as Melancon will benefit from this crisis.  So, The Blogging Caesar is rating this race a weak DEM hold.

Check out more on Louisiana here.

Go read the whole thing.

Check out more on Kentucky here.

Since Kansas is such a red state, the pool of attractive candidates on the GOP side is deep and wide.  Two such Republicans are State Senator Jim Barnett and former House Speaker Robin Jennison.  Either would be a solid challenger to Sebelius, but not enough, in my book, to overtake her, barring an unforeseen political disaster for the incumbent.  The GOP primary winner will be well poised to take over the Statehouse when Sebelius steps down, however.

One issue that might help the GOP close the gap is the Governor's handling of the Kansas Supreme Court.  Already she has appointed 2 Democratic justices, giving Kansas' highest tribunal 5 Democrats and only 2 Republicans (in a state with only 27% Democrats).  Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar believes even that issue will do little to threaten her.  I rate this race a strong DEM hold.

Senate and House Races:  Neither of Kansas' senators is up for re-election this year, and all four of Kansas' representatives should win re-election.

Check out more on Kansas here.

Before 1960, values and morals were largely uniform across the political spectrum and largely mirrored the Judeo-Christian heritage which defined American society for almost two centuries.  Back then, the issues with which we grappled did not include some of the most hotly-debated subjects of today.  Such things as abortion, homosexual rights, and pornography were almost completely absent from the mainstream political scene.

A lot has changed over the last 50 years, and that change has brought our current two-party system to its breaking point.  The social change of the last half-century, the emergence of the religious right, and a growing backlash to socialistic economic policies is morphing the American electorate into three major political philosophies, not two, and our two-party system is becoming less and less capable of accommodating this tectonic political shift. 

So, here's my prediction.  In the next twenty years or so, we'll become a three-party political system.  The Republican Party and the Democratic Party will be joined by the Libertarian Party as a legitimate force in American politics.  The Libertarian Party will grow substantially over the next couple of decades, pulling support from both the GOP and the Democrats.

Here's the reason why:  Many Americans are libertarian at heart - they just don't recognize it...yet.  These folks believe in less restrictions on behaviors (a liberal or Democratic view) and less involvement by the government in economic issues (a conservative or Republican view).  Right now, many closet Libertarians are counted among the two major political parties.  As Democrats continue to espouse increasingly liberal economic policies - such as universal healthcare - it is becoming more and more difficult for libertarians in their ranks to remain.  Likewise, philosophical libertarians in the GOP are getting increasingly uncomfortable with the growing influence of the values-based politics - such as pro-life policies and the Defense of Marriage Act - in their party.

These forces in both major parties that run contrary to their more libertarian brethren are showing no signs of backing off.  As a result, I predict a slow steady bleed of philosophical libertarians from both the Democrats and Republicans.  This migration will produce, sometime in the next two or three decades, a political system with three major partisan players.

So far, no fewer than 5 Democrats are slated to vie for their party's nomination.  Currently, I don't see a leader among that field.  Prominent contestants include Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver, State Rep Ed Fallon, and Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Patty Judge.  This race promises to be very close.  At this point, The Blogging Caesar is banking on Nussle's track record of winning in a Democratic district and a crowded, potentially damaging Democratic primary to give him the win and a weak GOP gain in November.

House District 1:  Only Jim Nussle's popularity has kept this increasingly Democratic district in GOP hands.  Now that he is running for Governor, the Democrats are poised to take back this seat.  Several Dems have indicated the desire to run, including Trial Lawyer Association Head Bruce Braley and economic development officer Rick Dickinson.  Larry Sabato says these two lead former State Senator Bill Gluba for the Democratic nomination.

For the GOP, State Representative Bill Dix is ahead to gain the nomination over Brian Kennedy and businessman Mike Whalen.  Both Sabato and Charlie Cook rate this race a toss-up.  The Blogging Caesar see it somewhat differently.  Given the success of recent Democratic presidential candidates in this district, I'm calling this a not-so-weak Dem gain.

Check out more on Iowa here.