Social security reform: Just the facts, ma'am
I've read, listened to, and evaluated a full spectrum of comments, criticism,
cynicism, and praise for President Bush's proposal to reform Social Security. Personally, I'm not
inclined to jump on any bandwagon, not even the President's, on this issue. What I do want to do
is enumerate the facts, devoid of any partisan bias or political spin. So here I go...
Social Security, without reform, will be bankrupt at some point in the future. The timeframe
for it to become insolvent is certainly up for debate, but the truth remains - Social Security is in trouble.
It is like the Titanic just after the huge ship side-swiped that fateful iceberg. To the
passengers, all seemed well for quite a while. But the ship's architect knew too many
compartments had been breached and the ship was mortally wounded. So it is with Social Security.
The checks keep being sent out each month, but the day when that stops is inevitable without drastic
reform.
Nothing must be done now. I believe, as some have asserted, that we do have the luxury of
time to fix the impending disaster. The catch is that there is no way of knowing how much time.
Using again the example of the Titanic, had the oceanliner been equipped with enough lifeboats for
every passenger, there would have been plenty of time for all to be saved. In fact, in this
hypothetical scenario, the partying and merriment could probably have continued for a time without risking
anyone's life. But if the delay had been too long, if the point of no return had been crossed, tragedy
would have resulted and many would have needlessly perished. If we do something about Social Security
now, we avoid the possibility of crossing that line. With such a tremendous amount at stake - the
contributions of millions of working lifetimes - can we afford to risk waiting too long?
The stock market is a good investment over time. There is risk in investing in the stock
market. Yet, in a very practical sense, that risk decreases to insignificance over the long haul.
Every decade for the last 70 years has seen the S&P 500 gain at least 10% annually. Sure
there have been downturns, and some of them have persisted for a number of years, but the stock market is
representative of the very life force of our economy. The risk of a substantial loss over a generation
is no greater than the risk of our economy sinking into a depression greater than we have ever known.
And, if that were to happen, how do you think the government would be able to pay those Social
Security benefits then, anyway?
Existing Social Security returns are dismal. To the best of my knowledge, the returns on
contributions to the program run a paltry one or two percent. Did you know that at a 2 percent annual
return, it would take around 36 years for $10 to double to $20? At 10%, that same $10 would be
over $300 in 36 years. Fascinating, isn't it?
Finally, I have no idea if the President's plan will be a roaring success or a big mistake.
In fact, no one does - a crucial point to keep in mind as we as a nation square off to debate the path
we should take on this issue.
Those are the facts, and they are indisputable.
The bottom line, and perhaps I'll let a little of my personal ideology creep in here, is this: the
President understands that we stand on the bow of a sinking ship, and he is searching for answers. His
plan is rooted in a fundamentally sound principle. That principle is that the people of the United States,
her entrepenuers, workers, investors, capitalists, and innovators, are better suited to grow the nest eggs of its
citizens than a government agency could ever hope to be. If you oppose his ideas, that is fine - there
may very well be a better way. But saying we don't have a problem or we don't need to address it now
is akin to those who continued to frolic on the decks of the Titanic as their watery graves drew closer and
closer.
Update: Response to this post has varied greatly from intelligent agreement to intelligent
disagreement to the usual "head-in-the-sand-no-problem-exists" Democratic talking point response.
To address the more reasonable responses, here's a follow-up comment.
Social Security can never actually go bankrupt. As an articulate and knowledgable reader pointed
out via email, it is a government agency not unlike the Dept. of Defense. It may reduce
benefits, alter the criteria for those who receive benefits, or raise payroll taxes to maintain the same level
of benefits, but it will never be insolvent in the way a corporaton might be. Even so, while the
semantics may not have been exactly correct, the concept remains - Social Security cannot continue as it
currently exists indefinitely. Replace fact number one with that.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:55am 02/24/05
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February 23, 2005
Blogger appreciation
I can't believe it has been twenty days since I've posted anything on this blog.
Time sure flies when there's not a campaign around! I must say I have gained a deeper appreciation
for my pajama-clad, comrades-at-keyboards who labor away each day scouring the internet for something to react to.
In fact, I'd like to invite my readers to visit the blogs in my blogroll to the left and consider
slipping them a few dollars - they've sure earned it, especially those who don't have a lot of traffic.
As for The Blogging Caesar, I'll try to earn back your attention in the weeks and months to come.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20pm 02/23/05
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February 3, 2005
SOTU reactions
Last year, The Blogging Caesar
graded President Bush's 2004
State-of-the-union address. As you see if you read the post, I wasn't too impressed. This time,
I am more than impressed. At home and abroad his past achievements and future plans are nothing short
of remarkable.
Domestically, the President has shown the desire to take on the hard problems our country faces.
In stark contrast to many previous presidents and most politicians, President Bush does not and will not
defer difficult problems to those who follow him. Many of these issues are long-standing, yet crumbling,
pillars of our government that are enshrined in an ivory tower of political fear. No one wants to deal
with them because of the political consequences. That is a fear this president does not know.
Social security needs fixing; President Bush will not turn a blind eye because the collapse is not
forecast in the next four years. No, he will meet the challenge head-on now while there is still
time.
The tax code, another institution burned into the fabric of our society for generations, can be made so
much better by viewing it practically and structuring efficiently. President Bush will tackle that
behemoth as well.
Almost all of us agree that the immigration situation in this country is far from healthy. I'm not
sure I agree with some of the proposals I've heard from him, but, knowing this man, I am sure something will
be done.
That's really the key to this man's presidency, and that's why he has made so many political enemies.
He simply is not content to tread presidential water by addressing superficial issues that make
good sound bites but don't accomplish anything substantive. He is willing to tackle the tough and
fundamental "bedrock" issues of our day, regardless of the political consequences. As a result, can
anyone doubt that some rather large changes are in store in the near future?
On foreign policy, Bush's resolve and intestinal fortitude have served this country, and our world, well.
What an amazing sight to see an Iraqi woman, freed from tyranny after nearly two generations, hug the mother
of a brave American soldier who died to make that freedom a reality. The Bush doctrine of peace through
freedom is the right way to best the terrorism that threatens us all. His vision of peace is
surely ambitious - some would say completely unattainable. Yet, many felt the same way about Ronald
Reagan's vision of a world without Soviet communism and the Warsaw Pact. When strength of character
and firmness of resolve accompany lofty visions, sometimes those visions outlive the obstacles that would
defeat them. President Bush embodies such traits.
Though I wish to sound like more than just a partisan Bushie, I honestly find it hard to temper my
enthusiasm in response to the President's speech. Reading through the transcript in preparation for this
post, I felt an intense mixture of pride in our country, optimism for the future, and an abiding gratefulness
to God that George W. Bush is my president. As surely as the President closed his address with the words,
"May God bless America," God has already blessed her immensely by ordaining his presidency.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:30pm 02/03/05
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February 1, 2005
Small steps, and progress
John Kerry said
this weekend
that we need to be careful not to over-hype the historic
elections that took place in Iraq on Sunday. For once, I actually agree with his sentiment, but my
rationale is quite different, I'm sure. The statement I have heard from supporters of the Iraq war
and opponents alike goes something like this: "Yes, these elections are a small step in the right
direction...." The difference between the two camps - and between Senator Kerry and me - is the little
three-letter word that we would use to connect that statement to the next.
For liberals like Kerry, the next word is invariably "but." "But the Sunni turnout will lead to
civil war." "But the raging anger at the US (which is proportionally miniscule when compared to the
overall Iraqi population) still exists." But this and but that. The attempt is to state the
obvious - the elections were a good thing - and then undermine that positive with sometimes fabricated, most
of the time exaggerated, negatives.
For me and others who have supported our actions in Iraq, the connecting word is "and." Only a
radical few would try to characterize these elections as the end all, be all indication of success. We
too understand that the encouraging and symbolically monumental events last Sunday are but a baby step in a
long process of developing peace and democracy in Iraq. It is a process that has seen many such baby
steps already, thanks in large part to the United States military and the decisions of our President, and
will see many more to come.
The key is that, while achieving the goal may still be perhaps years away and utter peace may never be
attained there, the Iraqi people are on the right path. The next few chapters of post-Saddam Iraq's history
are still to be determined. Civil war certainly could be in the cards and lead to a protracted process
of suffering and terror. On the other hand, the path to full democracy may not so bad. Either
way, now that the United States has given them the chance at democratic freedom, it will be up to the Iraqi
people themselves which route that path will take. If Sunday is any foretaste of the future, I'd say
the prognosis is bright.
Now, as much as ever, Americans need to be united in our support for a free and democratic Iraq. We
can debate for four score and seven the merits of taking out Saddam, but the circumstances today make that
argument moot. What is important for America going forward is that we be catalysts for change, not
cowards of convenience The truth is that, without our presence in Iraq, terror would thwart this
budding democracy. Abandoning the Iraqis prematurely, as Senator Ted Kennedy
seems to desire, would inevitably turn
the liberals' predictions of chaos and failure into reality and transform an historic opportunity into a
sequel to Saddam's reign of cruelty.
Surely Mr Kennedy must know this, yet he still trumpets ever-so-loudly that we are part of the problem.
Senator Kennedy, we are part of the problem - the terrorists' problem. The other part is
the iron will millions of Iraqi citizens displayed on Sunday. Together the fine men and women of the
United States military and the exuberent, determined men and women of Iraq can see democracy bloom and
flourish over there. I know it would handcuff your party's political designs, but that really
wouldn't be so bad, would it Teddy?
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:50am 02/01/05
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