Fifty-state tour:  Maine

Maine and Nebraska have one thing in common that no other state can claim.  These two states do not necessarily award all their electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes statewide.  Instead, they award one electoral vote for the winner of each congressional district (two in Maine, three in Nebraska) and two to the statewide winner.  Even with this unique electoral breakdown, all four of Maine's EVs will go to the Democratic nominee in November.  In case anyone's counting, The Blogging Caesar rates Maine as Strong DEM, Solid DEM, and Mod DEM for the statewide, CD-1, and CD-2 races, respectively.

Unlike the presidential contest, the race for the Senate in Maine is strictly statewide.  This year, Republican Susan Collins will try to win such a race and hold on to the seat for the GOP.  Collins is largely viewed as moderately to very vulnerable, though she outperformed prognostications to win in 2002 with ease.  In 2008, The Blogging Caesar sees a close but comfortable margin of victory for the incumbent, a Weak GOP Hold.

Fifty-state tour:  Louisiana

The ravages of hurricane Katrina are still being felt in the Bayou State.  The folks in Louisiana have yet to fully recover.  One of the side-effects of the storm has been a decreased Democratic presence in the state.  Bobby Jindal's landslide victory in the 2007 gubernatorial election here foreshadows the possibility of more GOP gains in the near future.  Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu will have to run for all she's worth to keep her seat in Washington, but even that may not be enough against a well-known party-switcher in State Treasurer John Kennedy.  Score a Weak GOP Gain in the only realistic pick-up opportunity for the GOP in the Senate this year.  Count on Louisiana's nine electoral votes going to the GOP candidate as well.

In the House, we won't see any change in the partisan makeup of Louisiana's delegation.  We will see, however, a couple of new faces here pretty soon.  Special elections are being held May 3rd in district one to replace now-Governor Bobby Jindal and in district six in the wake of Republican Richard Baker's mid-term resignation.  A third new face will take a seat in Washington in November as a result of the retirement of Republican Jim McCrery in district four.  None of these seats - nor any of the other 4 - seems vulnerable at this point.

Fifty-state tour:  Kentucky

Scandal brought down one of the few incumbents up for re-election in 2007, bluegrass GOP Governor Ernie Fletcher.  His loss notwithstanding, Kentucky has been and will continue to be reliably Republican in presidential races.  Other offices, though, are not so fixed.  Early on this cycle, it appeared GOP Senator Mitch McConnell might be somewhat vulnerable.  The Blogging Caesar doesn't think so.  I don't see a McConnell defeat in the cards at this point.  In fact, I'm rating his re-election bid a Strong GOP Hold.

Turning to Kentucky's House delegation, John Yarmuth scored a Demcratic takeover in 2006, besting GOPer Anne Northup in district 3.  After the loss, I figured Yarmuth would succumb to a rematch with Northup if she decided to run.  Fifteen months later, she has indeed thrown her hat in the ring, but her prospects are surprisingly bleak.  Perhaps a loss in last year's gubernatorial primary has tarnished her a bit.  Whatever the reason, I have to give the rematch - assuming Northup can with this primary - to Yarmuth.

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Ralph Nader's weekend announcement that he will run for the presidency again this year begs for a poll here.  I'll get back to the polls dealing with the candidates' ideology next week.  In 2000, Nader's run probably handed George W. Bush the victory.  In 2004, he didn't have much of an impact.  What about this year?  Will his candidacy hurt one party's nominee more than the other's, or will he be an insignificant sidenote?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Fifty-state tour:  Kansas

Other than Jim Leach's stunning loss in Iowa's 2nd district, the victory by Democrat Nancy Boyda in Kansas' 2nd distict might be the most suprising upset of 2006.  However, Republican Jim Ryun is back this year to try to wrest the seat back from the freshman congresswoman.  Nine months out, The Blogging Caesar thinks he has a great shot at doing just that.  Call this one the first Weak GOP Gain in a long, long time.

On the statewide front, Kansas has been a reliable, albeit smallish, source of electoral votes for the GOP in recent memory.  In 2008, those six EVs will remain in the GOP column once again by a wide margin.  And finally, the Senate race - if you can call it that - should also be an easy win for the GOP.  Pat Roberts will earn a third term in the Senate without having to break a sweat.

Fifty-state tour:  Iowa

In 2000, Iowa went narrowly blue.  In 2004, it went narrowly red.  In 2008, it's anybody's guess which way it will turn.  Since 2004 was a good night for Republicans overall and since 2008 might not be, The Blogging Caesar rates this state Weak DEM for now.

In 2006, the GOP lost two House seats here and, with them, their delegate majority in the state.  District 1 was no surprise, Jim Nussle left the seat in this left-leaning district to run for governor.  District 2 was a big surprise.  David Loebsack came out of nowhere to shock GOP incumbent Jim Leach.  So unexpected was this outcome that the 2006 CNN election page did not even highlight this race as key.  Now that it is in the hands of a Democrat, it will be a difficult task for the GOP to take it back.  It doesn't appear Leach will run aginst Loebsack, so this race, as well as the other 4 Iowa House seats will remain in the incumbent party's hands.

In the Senate, powerful Demcratic Senator Tom Harkin will cruise to victory.

Fifty-state tour:  Indiana

The Hoosier state saw an interesting turn of events during the last elections.  Nowhere was the blue wave of 2006 larger than here.  Before Election Day, seven of the nine Indiana House seats were in GOP hands.  Afterward, the Democrats held a 5-4 majority.  It was a stunning reversal in this usually reliably Republican state.  Moreover, the three GOP candidates who lost were all incumbents.  And while all three seats are, as one might expect, vulnerable, The Blogging Caesar rates them as just possibly competitive, another indication of the difficult road the GOP faces to get back on top.  Of the three, I'd rate Hill vs. Sodrel III (or is it IV?) in CD-9 as the most likely to be hotly contested by the time the election rolls around.

On the gubernatorial front, GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels, who rode a much redder environment to a takeover in 2004, is hoping to avoid the fate of his now former congressional Republican colleagues.  It will be a close race that he could lose.  Nevertheless, it will open as a Weak GOP Hold.  The GOP will also hold onto the 11 votes in Indiana's electoral basket.  Look for the GOP nominee to win here by yet another comfortable margin.

Poll:  Barack Obama's political ideology

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Over the next three weeks, we're going to be taking a look at this audience's perceptions of the three possible nominees in terms of their political ideology.  First up is Barack Obama.  Do you think he is liberal, moderate, or conservative, and to what degree?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Fifty-state tour:  Illinois

Illinois is a Strong DEM state when it comes to presidential politics.  If native son Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination, it will undoubtedly move into solid territory.  In the Senate race, Richard Durbin will also enjoy a Solid DEM Hold.

Turning to the House, while I'm only tracking one race - Republican Jerry Weller's open seat in CD-11 (which I have rated a Weak DEM Gain to start off), there are numerous possibly competitive races.  On the GOP side, Mark Steven Kirk could face a stiff challenge from Daniel Seals in CD-10, and two opens seats, Denny Hastert's seat in CD-14 and Ray Lahood's seat in CD-18, could also be close once the campaigns get into full swing.  For the Democrats, Melissa Bean's seat in CD-8 is the only somewhat vulnerable seat here.

New RSS feed available

I finally got around to installing RSS.  Click on the option at the top of the right sidebar to subscribe to Election Projection's RSS feed.  Let me know if you have any trouble with it.

Fifty-state tour:  Idaho

This state is normally deep red across all political categories.  In 2008, this trend will be no different.  However, there were a couple of events here over the last two years that merit mention.  First, in the blue wave election of 2006, Republican Bill Sali just barely - by Idaho's standards - got by his Democratic challenger, Larry Grant, to retain the open seat in Idaho's first district for the GOP.  Second, Senator Larry Craig's bathroom indescretions made many a headline since then.  At this point, neither seems to raise concern heading toward November.

With the benefit of incumbency and state partisanship now squarely on his side, Sali should easily win a re-match with Grant.  And Larry Craig's decision to resign paves the way for the GOP nominee - probably Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch - to enter the Senate following Craig's departure.  The rating for that seat will open as a Solid GOP Hold.  The presidential race and the House races are pretty much the same.

Fifty-state tour:  Hawaii

The Aloha State is full of breathtaking excitement and wonder - but not when it comes to this year's political races.  Besides the presidential contest, only Hawaii's two House seats are up for grabs this year.  Of course, even saying they are "up for grabs" is quite a stretch.  Both Democratic representatives will cruise to landslide wins.

Although Hawaii is a state where the legislature is made up of 64 Democrats and just 12 Republicans, there may be something positive developing for the GOP in the future.  In 2000, Al Gore walloped George W. Bush here by some 18 points.  In 2004, John Kerry managed only a 9 point victory.  That means 2008 should see a virtual tie, right?  No, I don't think so.  Governor Linda Lingle proved in 2002 and 2006 that a Republican can win here, but the prospects of Hawaii going red in the presidential race any time soon are slim to none.  Hawaii will remain a Strong DEM state at least for the near future.

Fifty-state tour:  Georgia

The heart of the Solid South, Georgia was witness to one of the most surprising upsets of the 2002 election.  Republican Sonny Perdue's out-of-nowhere victory over heavily-favored incumbent Governor Roy Barnes was astounding.  Massive GOP turnout in Georgia also saw the demise of Democratic Senator Max Cleland.  His opponent, Saxby Chambliss, is up for re-election this year. 

Chambliss should have no problem keeping his seat, though another serious blue tide could make him uncomfortable.  The Blogging Caesar rates this race a Strong GOP Hold.  And Georgia's electoral votes should end up in the GOP's column by a similar margin.

In the House, we have a rematch brewing between incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall (CD-8) and Mac Collins.  After a wierd mid-decade round of redistricting, these two fought it out two years ago in a newly-formed district 8.  Marshall's victory by less than 1750 votes sets the stage for another close fight this year - if Collins can get by some primary competition.  Until signs point to an upset, The Blogging Caesar gives Marshall the nod once again.  Call it a Weak DEM Hold.

Fifty-state tour:  Florida

Since the historic razor-close vote here in 2000 which propelled George W. Bush to the presidency, Florida has moved slightly toward the red.  In 2004, Bush carried the state by a close but not nerve-wracking 5 points.  In 2002 and 2006, respectively, Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist easily won the statehouse.  Only Katherine Harris' self-aggrandizing run against Senator Bill Nelson in 2006 kept the GOP from sweeping all statewide elections since 2002.

This year, the only statewide race is the battle for the White House.  The overall political climate may give Democrats reason to hope that the Florida prize which eluded them so narrowly in 2000 will be theirs in 2008.  For the time being, however, The Blogging Caesar sees Florida remaining a Weak GOP state.

Turning to House of Representatives, we see several new faces in Florida's delegation.  No less than six congresspersons will be seeking their first re-election victory.  Two of them, Tim Mahoney (CD-16) and Ron Klein (CD-22), both Democrats, will try to hold seats they won from the GOP last time around.

Of the two, Mahoney's seat appears to be the most vulnerable to turning red again.  Republican Joe Negron, were he to run, would make this seat a prime takeover target.  (He narrowly lost to Mahoney in 2006 even though disgraced Rep. Mark Foley's name was still on the ballot.)  At this point, Negron has not jumped into the race.  Without him, Mahoney's seat starts out as a Weak DEM Hold.  I'll leave Klein's seat and Republican Vern Buchanan's seat in CD-13 in the possibly competitive category for now.

Fifty-state tour:  Delaware

Delaware is a reliably Democratic state which can be expected to vote blue at the top of the ticket in all but the reddest of landslides.  President Bush was able to cut the Democrat's margin of victory from 13% in 2000 to just 7% in 2004, but I don't see the margin getting any closer than that in 2008.  This year, we are probably looking at a gap resembling the 2000 result.  As such, Delaware will start out the year as a Strong DEM state once again.

Down the ticket, we find the first gubernatorial race in our fifty-state tour.  Democrat incumbent Ruth Ann Minner is term-limited.  In this mostly blue state, the open seat she leaves behind does not provide the GOP with much of a pick-up opportunity.  Call it a Strong DEM Hold..  In the Senate race, Joe Biden's short-lived presidential campaign will not keep him from easily earning his 8th term in the Senate.  His will be a Solid DEM Hold.

Delaware has only one congressional district, and it has been filled by GOPer Mike Castle for over a decade.  In recent elections, he has handily won re-election, and I don't see any reason for that to change. So call this one a Solid GOP Hold in this blue state.

Weekend primary/caucus results

This weekend, five states conducted primaries or caucuses for one or both parties.  On Saturday, John McCain won a disputed race in the Washington GOP caucuses.  Mike Huckabee benefited from an apparent anti-McCain vote to blow out the senator in Kansas and eked out another victory in Louisiana.  On the Democratic side, Barack Obama registered a sweep over the weekend, taking Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington on Saturday and Maine on Sunday.  I'll be updating the primary table today to include these results.

Poll:  President Bush's approval on Election Day

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Presidential approval plays heavily in the outcome of elections when the incumbent is running.  This year, George W. Bush is not running for re-election.  However, his approval numbers should still effect his party's chances somewhat.  His approval rating currently hovers in the lower 30's.  What do you think it will be in November when folks head to the polls?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Resuming the 50-state tour - Updated

Some of you have written inquiring about the 50-state tour.  With all the primary festivities lately, I haven't had the opportunity to get past Connecticut.  That will change next week.  In fact, starting Monday, I'll be posting preliminary evaluations of at least 2 states most days until they are all done.  Here's a tentative schedule of updates.

• Feb 11:  Delaware, Florida, Georgia
• Feb 12:  Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois
• Feb 13:  Indiana, Iowa, Kansas
• Feb 14:  Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
• Feb 15:  Maryland, Massachusetts
• Feb 16:  Michigan, Minnesota
• Feb 17:
• Feb 18:  Mississippi, Missouri, Montana
• Feb 19:  Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire
• Feb 20:  New Jersey, New Mexico
• Feb 21:  New York
• Feb 22:  North Carolina, North Dakota
• Feb 23:  Ohio Oklahoma
• Feb 24:
• Feb 25:  Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
• Feb 26:  South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee
• Feb 27:  Texas, Utah
• Feb 28:  Vermont, Virginia, Washington
• Feb 29:  West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Oh my!  Romney's out - Updated

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Super-Duper-Mega-Jumbo Tuesday reactions

The biggest day of the primary season has passed.  Lots went on yesterday and into the wee hours of this morning as the nation watched the numbers come in from all over.  I was mesmerized by the constantly changing and expanding parade of returns on my television screen.  Last night reminded me why I love the competition of politics so much.  Today, as the dust still settles, let me give you my initial reactions to what transpired.

1.  Mike Huckabee shined in the south.  The former Southern governor's performance surprised me.  I figured Huck was done after losses in South Carolina and Florida.  Up until curtain, the polls from states such as Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee seemed to bear that out.  However, a late round of polls from Insider Advantage, which were released after I made my predictions, showed the last-minute numbers breaking in Huckabee's favor.

2.  California was huge.  The Golden State has the largest population, yes, but I'm not stating the obvious here.  It was the margin of victory by Hillary Clinton and John McCain that will make California's results last night pivotal in both nomination races.  As the day dawned yesterday, much of the discussion centered around who would win California.  Both Clinton and Barack Obama and McCain and Mitt Romney were deadlocked there in the polls.

The earlier results heightened the anticipation.  With McCain winning the big block states in the Northeast, folks were wondering if Romney might win California and head off a rout.  On the Democratic side, with Barack Obama amassing several impressive wins east of the Mississippi, a win in California would give Obama claim to a decisive victory on Super Tuesday.

However, the outcomes differed on both accounts.  Instead of Romney gaining traction in the face of McCain's big night, he - and any remaining chance he had at the nomination - was blown away in California.  McCain's 10-point victory sealed the deal for him.  He will be the GOP nominee for president.  For Obama, the potential to wake up as frontrunner this morning vanished instantly when California was called for Hillary with less than 20% of the vote counted.  Her 10-point victory was a resounding confirmation that she is indeed still the one to beat.

3.  Huckabee's impact on Romney. One common theme during the days before yesterday was the effect that Huckabee would have on Romney's chance at the nomination.  Looking at the numbers from last night, Romney was hurt by the fact that Huckabee was still in the running.  However, the degree to which that was the case is debatable.

I've done a quick study on how the results would have changed if Huck had dropped out after Florida.  As expected, the larger a proportion of Huck's vote I give to Romney in my analysis, the closer Romney's delegate count gets to McCain's.  But even with Romney getting 2 out of 3 Huckabee votes, he still does not surpass McCain on the scoreboard yesterday - and that's not including the advantage McCain had already heading into the day.  Bottom line:  Huck did impact Romney, but McCain would still be the frontrunner even with Huckabee out of the race.

4.  Democratic turnout was very impressive. Voters had turned out in far larger numbers on the Democratic side in the primaries and caucuses before yesterday.  That trend continued.  Missouri is a great example.  Approximately 820,000 people voted in the Democratic primary.  On the GOP side, the number was less than 600,000.  The story was the same in practically every primary held yesterday.  Even in a strong red states like Georgia and Tennessee, Democratic primary voters outnumbered their GOP counterparts by 75,000 or so.

I'm not sure what to make of these turnout results.  The initial reaction would be one of anxiety looking ahead to November.  Certainly, if the general election reflects the same kind of participation, it is hard to see a happy ending for the GOP.  That said, we've still got a long way to go until November, and the Democrats now face the challenge of keeping up the intensity over a sustained period of time.  That's not an easy task.  Could they be peaking at the wrong time?  We'll have to wait and see.

5.  A brokered convention likely for the Democrats - only. Both Hillary and Obama can make the claim that they had a good showing last night.  That fact indicates the tightness of their race and the increasing likelihood that neither will secure nomination before the convention in August.  Adding to that probability are the super delegates, which make up a substantial portion of the total delegate pool.  They will be by and large uncommitted before the convention.  With the committed delegate counts so close, it is difficult to see how one or the other can get to the needed majority before the primaries end.

Super-Duper-Mega-Jumbo Tuesday predictions and results - Updated

Poll:  Are you glad the Patriots lost the Super Bowl?

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  This week I thought we'd deviate from politics a bit.  Last night, the New York Giants defeated the previously unbeaten New England Patriots who were seeking an historic undefeated championship season.  No team has gone undefeated since the NFL season was expanded to 16 games.  The Patriots are the only team to get to the Super Bowl with that chance.  Are you glad they didn't make it?  Or were you rooting for a perfect season?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Edict #3:  John McCain will attain the delegates needed for the GOP nomination in March

By edict of The Blogging Caesar, it is hereby decreed that Arizona Senator John McCain will be the 2008 GOP nominee for President of the United States.  He will accumulate 1,191 delegates - the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination - sometime during the primaries held in the month of March.

I hereby seal and deliver this edict today, Saturday, the 2nd of February, in the year of our Lord 2008.

Super Tuesday predictions coming

I'm going to be posting a table sometime before Tuesday afternoon with my predictions for Super-Duper-Mega-Jumbo Tuesday.  Yes, I will be prognosticating all 21 states.  In the meantime, send me your link if you'll be posting predictions, too.

Super Tuesday polls

An edict upcoming after all

I'm unable to resist.  So, even though I felt earlier that I could not issue an edict on the GOP race, I've since changed my mind.  Stay tuned; The Blogging Caesar will issue edict #3 tomorrow.