Unlike the presidential contest, the race for the Senate in Maine is strictly statewide.  This year, Republican Susan Collins will try to win such a race and hold on to the seat for the GOP.  Collins is largely viewed as moderately to very vulnerable, though she outperformed prognostications to win in 2002 with ease.  In 2008, The Blogging Caesar sees a close but comfortable margin of victory for the incumbent, a Weak GOP Hold.

The Maine state page has a lot more information - and it's just a click away!

Next stop:  Maryland

In the House, we won't see any change in the partisan makeup of Louisiana's delegation.  We will see, however, a couple of new faces here pretty soon.  Special elections are being held May 3rd in district one to replace now-Governor Bobby Jindal and in district six in the wake of Republican Richard Baker's mid-term resignation.  A third new face will take a seat in Washington in November as a result of the retirement of Republican Jim McCrery in district four.  None of these seats - nor any of the other 4 - seems vulnerable at this point.

You can find lots more stuff on the Louisiana state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop:  Maine

Turning to Kentucky's House delegation, John Yarmuth scored a Demcratic takeover in 2006, besting GOPer Anne Northup in district 3.  After the loss, I figured Yarmuth would succumb to a rematch with Northup if she decided to run.  Fifteen months later, she has indeed thrown her hat in the ring, but her prospects are surprisingly bleak.  Perhaps a loss in last year's gubernatorial primary has tarnished her a bit.  Whatever the reason, I have to give the rematch - assuming Northup can with this primary - to Yarmuth.

Be sure to check out the Kentucky state page for more information.

Next stop:  Louisiana

On the statewide front, Kansas has been a reliable, albeit smallish, source of electoral votes for the GOP in recent memory.  In 2008, those six EVs will remain in the GOP column once again by a wide margin.  And finally, the Senate race - if you can call it that - should also be an easy win for the GOP.  Pat Roberts will earn a third term in the Senate without having to break a sweat.

The Kansas state page has all the details.  Don't miss it!

Next stop:  Kentucky

In 2006, the GOP lost two House seats here and, with them, their delegate majority in the state.  District 1 was no surprise, Jim Nussle left the seat in this left-leaning district to run for governor.  District 2 was a big surprise.  David Loebsack came out of nowhere to shock GOP incumbent Jim Leach.  So unexpected was this outcome that the 2006 CNN election page did not even highlight this race as key.  Now that it is in the hands of a Democrat, it will be a difficult task for the GOP to take it back.  It doesn't appear Leach will run aginst Loebsack, so this race, as well as the other 4 Iowa House seats will remain in the incumbent party's hands.

In the Senate, powerful Demcratic Senator Tom Harkin will cruise to victory.

Be sure to check out the Iowa state page for more information.

Next stop:  Kansas

On the gubernatorial front, GOP incumbent Mitch Daniels, who rode a much redder environment to a takeover in 2004, is hoping to avoid the fate of his now former congressional Republican colleagues.  It will be a close race that he could lose.  Nevertheless, it will open as a Weak GOP Hold.  The GOP will also hold onto the 11 votes in Indiana's electoral basket.  Look for the GOP nominee to win here by yet another comfortable margin.

The Indiana state page has all the details.

Next stop:  Iowa

Turning to the House, while I'm only tracking one race - Republican Jerry Weller's open seat in CD-11 (which I have rated a Weak DEM Gain to start off), there are numerous possibly competitive races.  On the GOP side, Mark Steven Kirk could face a stiff challenge from Daniel Seals in CD-10, and two opens seats, Denny Hastert's seat in CD-14 and Ray Lahood's seat in CD-18, could also be close once the campaigns get into full swing.  For the Democrats, Melissa Bean's seat in CD-8 is the only somewhat vulnerable seat here.

Be sure to check out the Illinois state page for more detailed information.

Next stop:  Indiana

With the benefit of incumbency and state partisanship now squarely on his side, Sali should easily win a re-match with Grant.  And Larry Craig's decision to resign paves the way for the GOP nominee - probably Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch - to enter the Senate following Craig's departure.  The rating for that seat will open as a Solid GOP Hold.  The presidential race and the House races are pretty much the same.

More details available on the Idaho state page.

Next stop:  Illinois

Although Hawaii is a state where the legislature is made up of 64 Democrats and just 12 Republicans, there may be something positive developing for the GOP in the future.  In 2000, Al Gore walloped George W. Bush here by some 18 points.  In 2004, John Kerry managed only a 9 point victory.  That means 2008 should see a virtual tie, right?  No, I don't think so.  Governor Linda Lingle proved in 2002 and 2006 that a Republican can win here, but the prospects of Hawaii going red in the presidential race any time soon are slim to none.  Hawaii will remain a Strong DEM state at least for the near future.

The Hawaii state page has the whole scoop.

Next stop:  Idaho

Chambliss should have no problem keeping his seat, though another serious blue tide could make him uncomfortable.  The Blogging Caesar rates this race a Strong GOP Hold.  And Georgia's electoral votes should end up in the GOP's column by a similar margin.

In the House, we have a rematch brewing between incumbent Democrat Jim Marshall (CD-8) and Mac Collins.  After a wierd mid-decade round of redistricting, these two fought it out two years ago in a newly-formed district 8.  Marshall's victory by less than 1750 votes sets the stage for another close fight this year - if Collins can get by some primary competition.  Until signs point to an upset, The Blogging Caesar gives Marshall the nod once again.  Call it a Weak DEM Hold.

You'll find more details on the Georgia state page.  Don't miss it!

Next stop:  Hawaii

This year, the only statewide race is the battle for the White House.  The overall political climate may give Democrats reason to hope that the Florida prize which eluded them so narrowly in 2000 will be theirs in 2008.  For the time being, however, The Blogging Caesar sees Florida remaining a Weak GOP state.

Turning to House of Representatives, we see several new faces in Florida's delegation.  No less than six congresspersons will be seeking their first re-election victory.  Two of them, Tim Mahoney (CD-16) and Ron Klein (CD-22), both Democrats, will try to hold seats they won from the GOP last time around.

Of the two, Mahoney's seat appears to be the most vulnerable to turning red again.  Republican Joe Negron, were he to run, would make this seat a prime takeover target.  (He narrowly lost to Mahoney in 2006 even though disgraced Rep. Mark Foley's name was still on the ballot.)  At this point, Negron has not jumped into the race.  Without him, Mahoney's seat starts out as a Weak DEM Hold.  I'll leave Klein's seat and Republican Vern Buchanan's seat in CD-13 in the possibly competitive category for now.

There is plenty more stuff on Florida's state page.  Be sure to check it out.

Next stop:  Georgia

Down the ticket, we find the first gubernatorial race in our fifty-state tour.  Democrat incumbent Ruth Ann Minner is term-limited.  In this mostly blue state, the open seat she leaves behind does not provide the GOP with much of a pick-up opportunity.  Call it a Strong DEM Hold..  In the Senate race, Joe Biden's short-lived presidential campaign will not keep him from easily earning his 8th term in the Senate.  His will be a Solid DEM Hold.

Delaware has only one congressional district, and it has been filled by GOPer Mike Castle for over a decade.  In recent elections, he has handily won re-election, and I don't see any reason for that to change. So call this one a Solid GOP Hold in this blue state.

Check out the Delaware state page for lots more information.

Next stop:  Florida

• Feb 11:  Delaware, Florida, Georgia
• Feb 12:  Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois
• Feb 13:  Indiana, Iowa, Kansas
• Feb 14:  Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine
• Feb 15:  Maryland, Massachusetts
• Feb 16:  Michigan, Minnesota
• Feb 17:
• Feb 18:  Mississippi, Missouri, Montana
• Feb 19:  Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire
• Feb 20:  New Jersey, New Mexico
• Feb 21:  New York
• Feb 22:  North Carolina, North Dakota
• Feb 23:  Ohio Oklahoma
• Feb 24:
• Feb 25:  Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island
• Feb 26:  South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee
• Feb 27:  Texas, Utah
• Feb 28:  Vermont, Virginia, Washington
• Feb 29:  West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

Update:  The primary table has been updated.

Update:  Kim Priestap over at Wizbang! has been all over Romney's decision.  At the time of this update, she's up to Update X.  Bob Owens, referenced in Update VII, gets it right.

1.  Mike Huckabee shined in the south.  The former Southern governor's performance surprised me.  I figured Huck was done after losses in South Carolina and Florida.  Up until curtain, the polls from states such as Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee seemed to bear that out.  However, a late round of polls from Insider Advantage, which were released after I made my predictions, showed the last-minute numbers breaking in Huckabee's favor.

2.  California was huge.  The Golden State has the largest population, yes, but I'm not stating the obvious here.  It was the margin of victory by Hillary Clinton and John McCain that will make California's results last night pivotal in both nomination races.  As the day dawned yesterday, much of the discussion centered around who would win California.  Both Clinton and Barack Obama and McCain and Mitt Romney were deadlocked there in the polls.

The earlier results heightened the anticipation.  With McCain winning the big block states in the Northeast, folks were wondering if Romney might win California and head off a rout.  On the Democratic side, with Barack Obama amassing several impressive wins east of the Mississippi, a win in California would give Obama claim to a decisive victory on Super Tuesday.

However, the outcomes differed on both accounts.  Instead of Romney gaining traction in the face of McCain's big night, he - and any remaining chance he had at the nomination - was blown away in California.  McCain's 10-point victory sealed the deal for him.  He will be the GOP nominee for president.  For Obama, the potential to wake up as frontrunner this morning vanished instantly when California was called for Hillary with less than 20% of the vote counted.  Her 10-point victory was a resounding confirmation that she is indeed still the one to beat.

3.  Huckabee's impact on Romney. One common theme during the days before yesterday was the effect that Huckabee would have on Romney's chance at the nomination.  Looking at the numbers from last night, Romney was hurt by the fact that Huckabee was still in the running.  However, the degree to which that was the case is debatable.

I've done a quick study on how the results would have changed if Huck had dropped out after Florida.  As expected, the larger a proportion of Huck's vote I give to Romney in my analysis, the closer Romney's delegate count gets to McCain's.  But even with Romney getting 2 out of 3 Huckabee votes, he still does not surpass McCain on the scoreboard yesterday - and that's not including the advantage McCain had already heading into the day.  Bottom line:  Huck did impact Romney, but McCain would still be the frontrunner even with Huckabee out of the race.

4.  Democratic turnout was very impressive. Voters had turned out in far larger numbers on the Democratic side in the primaries and caucuses before yesterday.  That trend continued.  Missouri is a great example.  Approximately 820,000 people voted in the Democratic primary.  On the GOP side, the number was less than 600,000.  The story was the same in practically every primary held yesterday.  Even in a strong red states like Georgia and Tennessee, Democratic primary voters outnumbered their GOP counterparts by 75,000 or so.

I'm not sure what to make of these turnout results.  The initial reaction would be one of anxiety looking ahead to November.  Certainly, if the general election reflects the same kind of participation, it is hard to see a happy ending for the GOP.  That said, we've still got a long way to go until November, and the Democrats now face the challenge of keeping up the intensity over a sustained period of time.  That's not an easy task.  Could they be peaking at the wrong time?  We'll have to wait and see.

5.  A brokered convention likely for the Democrats - only. Both Hillary and Obama can make the claim that they had a good showing last night.  That fact indicates the tightness of their race and the increasing likelihood that neither will secure nomination before the convention in August.  Adding to that probability are the super delegates, which make up a substantial portion of the total delegate pool.  They will be by and large uncommitted before the convention.  With the committed delegate counts so close, it is difficult to see how one or the other can get to the needed majority before the primaries end.

On the other hand, McCain's big night has solidified the chance that we will know the GOP nominee well before the convention in September.  I was wavering a bit on my third edict after Huckabee won some states I had predicted for McCain, but the result in California put my hesitation to bed - just in time for me to get there myself.

Whew!  What a night!  It reminded me - as if that were necessary - why I love the competition of politics so much.  This election season has been filled with excitement and drama, ups and downs, changing frontrunners and disappointing dropouts.  What more could we ask for?  And to think, we haven't even settled on the party nominees yet!

We have arrived at the biggest day in the history of primaries.  Almost half of these United States are conducting their primaries or caucuses today.  Over 1000 delegates are at stake on the Republican side and twice that are being contested on the Democratic side.  Truly this is the big one.

Here's how I see the Republican races unfolding today.  John McCain will be the big winner.  He is still riding the momentum from his victories in South Carolina and Florida - plus he enjoys a structural advantage.  Unlike the Democrats, who award all delegates (except super delegates) proportionally according to the vote, state GOP conventions have several methods for allocating their delegates.  Many states have a winner-take-all format.  Others use a proportional model.  Still others choose a modified winner-take-all system which takes congressional district results into account.

It just so happens that in many states where McCain is ahead, the method is winner-take-all.  As a result, he stands to gain large delegate blocks in such states as New York, Arizona, Missouri, and New Jersey.  On the other hand, with the exception of Utah, states Mitt Romney might be expected to win break down the allocation of delegates to more than one candidate.  For example, Romney's home state of Massachusetts employs a proportional model.

The bottom line is that McCain's delegates will come easier than Romney's, increasing the effect of his strong polling numbers nationwide.  I'm predicting McCain will win 60% to 65% of the delegates at stake today.  Mitt Romney will come in with 25% to 30% or so, and Mike Huckabee, around 10%.  Ron Paul's best chance of picking up delegates will come in Alaska.  Other than that, he may snatch a delegate here and there, but his haul won't amount to much.

On the Democratic side, the fact that every state awards proportionally will make it difficult for either Obama or Hillary to gain an overwhelming delegate advantage.  In fact, I don't see either candidate earning more than 55% of the delegates to be awarded today.  Looking at the polling data, I would say Obama will get 25 to 75 more delegates than Hillary.  Last month, conventional wisdom pointed to a Republican brokered convention.  After today, ironically, it may be the Democrats who will be more likely facing a convention fight.

Here is a roundup of other blogger predictions, followed by two tables containing mine.

NB Politico  Tsunami predictions galore! Texas Gringo at RedState  Extensive breakdown of the GOP races. The Square Deal  Romney's California surge may give him a reprieve. Coldheartedtruth  C.H. Truth says Obama could pull this off. Freedom's Lighthouse  McCain is sitting pretty. Outside The Beltway  It won't be over tonight - at least mathematically. Church and State  Huckabee to outperform in the south. Sister Toldjah  Hillary takes Massachusetts from Obama/Kennedy. Confederate Yankee  Results: DEM - advantage Obama, GOP - advantage Obama. Allah Pundit at Hot Air  Hillary and Romney win California. The Political Tipster  So many polls, so little time. Label Free Zone  Neal Ford see a very big night for McCain and Obama.

If you have posted predictions, send me an email so I can put you on this list.

I hereby seal and deliver this edict today, Saturday, the 2nd of February, in the year of our Lord 2008.