Fifty-state tour:  New Hampshire

The Northeast is a bastion of blueness.  New England states routinely vote for the Democratic nominee in presidential elections by large margins.  Until recently, New Hampshire was a red anomaly in this region.  However, as more and more folks have migrated here from surrounding areas (especially from New Hampshire's famously liberal neighbor to the south), the state has taken on a bluer and bluer purple hue.  In 2004, John Kerry was able to wrest New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes into the Democratic column after George W. Bush had won here in 2000.  But that's not where the blue invasion stopped.  Last election, Democratic challengers unseated both GOP congressmen, and the party won an astounding 88 seats in New Hampshire's 430-seat House of Representatives, blowing away the prior 98-seat GOP majority.

Given the Granite State's leftward lurch over the last few years, one might expect it to go easily for the Democratic nominee again in 2008.  The Blogging Caesar says, "Hold on a minute!"  I believe John McCain will do very well here.  He has spent half his waking hours over the last decade in the state, building a solid and effective grass roots network.  That fundamental support will serve him well, as will Granite Staters' independent streak.  Yes, he is a Republican running in an increasingly Democratic state, but his personality and posture fits the electorate just enough to pull out a Weak GOP win here.

That outcome does not seem to be as likely for GOP Senator John Sununu.  He faces not just a growing ideological riptide against him, but also the most potent candidate New Hampshire Democrats have to offer in former Governor Jeanne Shaheen.  Early polls last year had the incumbent running near 20-point deficits against Shaheen.  Those polls have closed significantly since then, but Sununu is still in deep trouble.  The Blogging Caesar sees this switching hands in a Mod DEM Gain.  In truth, that rating may be a bit generous for the Republican; this race could end up being no contest.

As I mentioned, both House seats went to the Democrats in 2006.  One of those races (District 1) was a big surprise.  This year, Jeb Bradley is running to regain the seat he lost two years ago.  Expect a close election between him and new incumbent Carol Shea-Porter.  For now, The Blogging Caesar will let Ms. Shea-Porter keep her seat and rate this one a Weak DEM Hold.  Ditto for Paul Hodes in District 2.

The statehouse will also be contested this year, but Democrat John Lynch is a sure bet to retain his place in the Governor's Mansion.

Poll:  McCain against Hillary and Obama

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Now that John McCain is the presumptive GOP nominee, I thought I'd see how you think he would do against the possible Democratic nominees, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.  Can he beat both of them or will he fare better against one than the other?  Or maybe he wouldn't win against either.  What do you think?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Change to Missouri projection

Fifty-state tour:  Montana

Big Sky country is GOP country when it comes to presidential elections.  This state has awarded its electoral votes to the Republican candidate every year since 1968 except 1992 (thank you, H Ross Perot).  Count Montana's EVs in the GOP column once again in 2008.  However, in other races, the Democrats have had a lot of success here.  In 2004, Democrat Brian Schweitzer unseated the GOP incumbent to win the statehouse, and last election, Jon Tester ousted GOPer Conrad Burns by a very narrow 3000-vote margin.

Governor Schweitzer is up for re-election this year and should have little problem holding that position for the Democrats.  And popular Max Baucus is nowhere near as vulnerable as his former colleague Burns was at this point in 2006.  Finally, Dennis Rehberg, the lone Republican incumbent in the mix, is also a shoo-in for re-election this year.

Poll:  Rev. Wright and Obama's bid

Poll:  March Madness

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  I thought we'd take a break from politics this week and look at the phenomenon that is March Madness.  North Carolina, Memphis, Kansas, and UCLA earned number one seeds.  How many of these four teams do you think will make the Final Four?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Fifty-state tour:  Minnesota

Minnesota has a reputation for independent thinking when it comes to politics.  So much so that candidates from the "Independence Party" sometimes gain a plurality of the vote.  That's how one Jesse Ventura of wrestling fame became governor here a few years back.  That same mindset boosts Republican John McCain's prospects of winning this state's 10 electoral votes.

The last two election cycles, those votes went to the Democratic nominee by the narrowest of margins.  Just two percent separated George W. Bush from Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.  So, The Blogging Caesar is hopeful McCain will be able to flip this state in 2008.  Even so, I am hesitant to call it for the red team just yet.  Let's just leave it at a Weak DFL designation for now.  (For those who don't recognize the DFL notation, the Democratic party in Minnesota is called the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.)

Moving down the ticket, this state provides more entertainment - much more.  Seeking freshman GOP Senator Norm Coleman's seat is comedian and commentator Al Franken.  The outspoken and outlandish Franken is making a serious run, and some believe he will win the DFL nomination.  If he does, I believe Coleman will beat him, though I think it will be closer than some of my colleagues on the conservative side believe it will be.  If someone else gets the nod to face Coleman, this will be a nail biter.  Either way, though, I'll settle on the incumbent at this point; call this one a Weak GOP Hold.

In the House, look for a close race in outgoing GOPer Jim Ramsted's 3rd district.  The GOP found a well-financed, solid candidate in State Representative Erik Paulsen.  However, this race should be close, another Weak GOP Hold.  Bush outdistanced Kerry in this district in 2004 which gives Paulsen another reason for confidence.  That said, if a good measure of the blue wave of 2006 is still washing around out there come November, this seat will be a prime candidate to switch.

Fifty-state tour:  Michigan

Program note:  Until now, my preliminary projections on the presidential contests in each state did not factor in known nominees.  I have now become convinced that Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination.  Therefore, starting with today's evaluation of Michigan, preliminary projections will assume a John McCain vs. Barack Obama general election match up.

Michigan has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last four elections dating back to Bill Clinton's first run.  Each one, though, especially the last two, was not a landslide, and Michigan continues to be mentioned among the most competitive states each cycle.  With John McCain as the GOP standard bearer, 2008 may be the year the GOP can break through.  The Blogging Caesar still rates Michigan a Weak DEM state for now, but McCain's well-publicized appeal to moderates and independents may be enough to tip the scale in his favor.  George W. Bush lost Michigan by 5 points in 2000 and just 3 in 2004.  That's a margin McCain has a good chance to overcome.  As will be the case in many states, the African-American turnout with Obama heading the Democratic ticket will be key.

The only other races of note here this time around are Carl Levin's shoo-in bid for his 6th term in the Senate and the race for House Seat #7.  In 2006, Tim Walberg upended the GOP incumbent in the Republican primary and then won a very close race in the general election.  He will have a big target on his back this year, put there by the DCCC.  Initially, The Blogging Caesar rates this race a Weak GOP Hold, but this is certainly another race that could go to the Democrats.

March 11, 1966

I'm celebrating my forty-second birthday today, so I hope you'll understand if I delay resuming the fifty-state tour one more day.  I've taken the day off from work, and my wonderful wife and kids have some fun things planned for me.  Tomorrow, we'll take look at Michigan; today, it's party time!

Under the weather

Sorry for my sparse posting recently.  I've been battling a bug these last few days.  I'm feeling better today so expect things to pick up once again this week.

Poll:  John McCain's political ideology

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  This week, we look at the political ideology of the third remaining player in the race for the White House - Senator John McCain.  Where do you think he sits on the political spectrum?  Is he liberal, moderate, or conservative, and to what degree?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

The future of conservatism

Hillary wins Ohio, ahead in Texas

As of 11:10pm EST, Hillary Clinton is projected to win Ohio.  Her 16-18 point lead is just too large for Barack Obama to overcome, even with the urban areas of the state still outstanding.  In Texas, with just 26% of the vote in the primary counted, she has pulled ahead of Obama by a very small margin.  Tonight may be a bit of deja vu as Ms. Clinton seems to be rising from mat just as she did earlier this year in New Hampshire.  For sure, her performance today will keep her in the race.  And, if she is victorious in Texas, it's hard to see anything but a brokered convention in Colorado this August.

Another TBC edict fulfilled

Mini Super-Tuesday Predictions

I'm very busy at work this week, so I can't post my usual prediction roundup.  However, I do have a prediction of my own.  Hillary will win Ohio by a larger margin than she will lose Texas and will stay in the race at least a while longer.

Fifty-state tour:  Massachusetts

We've come to the most liberal state in the Union, at least as measured by Democratic Party dominance.  So blue is Massachusetts that over the last 4 elections cycles, no Republican candidate for the House has gotten within 25% of his or her Democratic opponent.  In a total of forty races, that would be not one.  And the chance of that changing in November is practically non-existent.  Every race The Blogging Caesar will track this year in this state is rated Solid DEM Hold.  Enough said.

Poll:  Hillary Clinton's political ideology

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Two week's ago, the poll here asked about Barack Obama's political ideology.  This week, we're asking the same question about Hillary Clinton.  Do you think she is liberal, moderate, or conservative, and to what degree?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote.

Fifty-state tour:  Maryland

This blue state has become even bluer in recent elections and, in 2006, two strong Republican candidates could not withstand the blue wave in a blue state.  GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich had a stellar record in the statehouse the four year prior, but it didn't matter when Election Day rolled around.  He lost by good margin to Democrat Martin O'Malley.  One has to wonder if Ehrlich would have lost had the tide against Republicans not been so large across the nation.

The same can be said of his running mate who tried to win a seat on Capitol Hill.  Former Lt. Governor Michael Steele, a bright African-American star in the GOP, lost the battle for outgoing Senator Paul Sarbanes' seat to Ben Cardin.  In my view, he likely would have won that race in many previous election cycles.

With no Senate or gubernatorial race on tap this year, and with all eight House seats firmly in the incumbent party's hands (2 GOP, 6 DEM), there is not much more to report from the Bay State heading into 2008 - except that Maryland's 10 electoral votes should be Strong DEM.