Poll: Senate make-up in 2009
The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. Right now the Democrats hold an effective 51-49 majority in the
Senate. Most pundits, including The Blogging Caesar, see that majority expanding in November. What about you? Can the GOP stave off further losses,
or will the Democrats gain an elusive filibuster-proof majority? The poll is located in the right sidebar. Please be sure to cast your vote.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:25pm 04/21/08
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Friday, April 18, 2008
Endorsement: Governor of North Carolina - State Senator Fred Smith
Election Projection is not, nor will it ever be, an endorsement mill. In fact, I don't foresee another one coming from this blog
this entire election season. That's how strongly I feel about this particular candidate.
My fellow-blogger and friend John Hawkins of Right Wing News has posted a
brief interview with GOP gubernatorial candidate Fred Smith. In
the interview Fred eloquently lays out why he is the best candidate for the GOP nomination and the Governor's Mansion. I haven't made many "official"
endorsements here at Election Projection. However, since he's running in my home state and since he stands on the issues so close to my own positions, I feel
this is an appropriate time for an exception.
If you are a North Carolina fan of Election Projection, let me encourage you to vote in the May 6th primary election for State Senator Fred Smith, a man who stands
on rock-solid conservative principles regarding faith and values, economics and illegal immigration. He's behind moderate Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory in the
polls right now, so he needs a strong final push to take the nomination.
Over the next 18 days, he needs us to get his message out at every opportunity. I intend to help. And with your help - and the help of others with
whom you share Fred's message - he can overcome and win. Please vote Fred Smith on May 6th - and why not click on the picture below and donate something to his
campaign? Or just click on it to learn more about him.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:10pm 04/18/08
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Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Fifty-state tour: South Dakota
At once staunchly Republican in presidential races and prone to electing Democrats to statewide offices, South Dakota, like its neighbor to
the north, is a political anomaly. Two such Democrats are up for re-election this year. One, Senator Tim Johnson, has overcome serious health issues to
resume full senatorial duties. After two razor-close victories in 1996 and 2002, he will be rewarded for his courage by a much easier road back to Washington
in November. The Blogging Caesar rates his race a Strong DEM Hold. The other, Congresswoman Stephanie Sandlin, just keeps
getting stronger with each election. We'll have to see if her race even merits a possibly competitive designation down the road. For now, it doesn't.
There's not much more to say here about South Dakota; you can get the rest of the story from the South Dakota state page.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:40pm 04/16/08
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Fifty-state tour: South Carolina
We arrive in the heart of the Old South. Two things you expect down here, ironically, are large African-American populations and GOP
dominance in presidential and congressional elections. That is exactly what you have in South Carolina. However, with Barack Obama poised to win the
Democratic nomination, there's a good chance we'll get to see just what effect an African-American on the ballot will have in a solid red southern state.
George W. Bush carried the Palmetto State by wide margins in both his presidential campaigns. You have to go back to 1976 and next-door-neighbor Jimmy
Carter's first run to find the last time South Carolina's electoral votes went to the Democratic nominee. This year the dynamics of the race will be
different. Obama's run will tighten things up a bit here in 2008, but not enough to make it tense for John McCain. Whereas 2000 and 2004 were solid
here for the GOP, this year will just be Strong GOP.
Give the same rating to the first-term Senator Lindsay Graham, up for re-election after replacing the late centenarian Democrat (oops) Republican
Strom Thurmond in 2002. Graham angered some conservatives (not me) by joining McCain in the famous "Gang of 14"
alliance. It won't be enough to seriously threaten his re-election chances however.
None of South Carolina's four GOP congressmen and two Democratic congressmen will be seriously threatened this year, either.
Be sure to check out all the great information on the South Carolina state page.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:50pm 04/15/08
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Fifty-state tour: Rhode Island
Little Rhodey is blue on blue. After disposing of RINO Senator Lincoln Chaffee in 2006, Rhode Islanders now claim only one
Republican among their statewide elected officials and congressional delegation. That one is Governor Don Carcieri. So blue is Rhode Island that
no other state in the union voted more favorably for Al Gore in the 2000 election. In 2004, Rhode Island finished in that regard behind only John Kerry's
home state of Massachusetts.
So will there be any exciting contests, intriguing matchups or surprising upsets in the Ocean State this year? In a word, no. The Democratic
nominee for president will waltz to an enormous victory here, as will Democratic Senator Jack Reed. And the two Democratic congressmen don't even have any
announced GOP challengers yet. Frankly, there's little more to say about this most fortified of Democratic bastions.
The rest of the very deep blue details are on the Rhode Island state page.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15pm 04/15/08
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Monday, April 14, 2008
Poll: Voter turnout in 2008
The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. The last presidential election witnessed an extremely high voter
turnout. This primary season we've seen record turnouts all over the place - particularly on the Democratic side. What about November? Do
record turnouts this winter portend record turnouts in the fall? Or will the excitement settle down enough to effect how many folks come out to vote?
The poll is located in the right sidebar. Please be sure to cast your vote.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:15am 04/14/08
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Saturday, April 12, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Pennsylvania
Only California, Texas, New York and Florida are bigger electoral vote prizes than Pennsylvania. At 21 EVs, PA is crucial to any
Democratic presidential hopeful. Like Florida for the GOP, lose Pennsylvania and you probably lose the election. So what will happen this year after
two very close contests here in 2000 and 2004? The Blogging Caesar says more of the same. John McCain may be better suited to this state's electorate
than George W. Bush, but Pennsylvania will go Weak DEM in 2008 nevertheless.
Since this is an off year for senate and gubernatorial races, we'll move on the House. If 2006 was a blue wave year, Pennsylvania's Republican delegation
was right in its path. The GOP saw no less than four incumbents flounder amid local scandals and national hostility. If there is anything positive as
we approach this year's election, it is that the remaining Republicans are not very vulnerable. In fact, Democrats hold both seats in Election Projection's
hotly contested House races list. And they are both freshmen representatives who won their seats two years ago.
In District 10, Chris Carney faces two solid candidates, one of whom can emerge to give the incumbent a stout challenge if they don't abuse each other too bad
before the primary. In District 4, we have an exciting rematch brewing between former Representative Melissa Hart and the Democrat, incumbent Jason
Altmire, who unseated her in 2006. These two races start out as Weak DEM Holds, but don't be surprised if either switches
a time or two before November. Also don't be surprised to see one or more additional PA House races join the hotly contested list in the coming months.
The Pennsylvania state page is loaded with lots of great details. Why not check it out?
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:25pm 04/12/08
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Thursday, April 10, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Oregon
Oregon is part of the "Solid West Coast," the three-state shoreline comprised of California, Oregon and Washington. Over the last
several cycles, this region has been reliably Democratic in presidential contests. Of the three, however, Oregon is the least solidly blue. George W.
Bush almost won here in 2000, coming just a few thousand votes short of Al Gore. And though John Kerry was able to stretch that margin out a bit in 2004,
this state remains more of a battleground state than most people figure.
November should once again prove that point. Already, polls indicate John McCain faring decently against the two Democratic contenders. A lot can
and will happen over the next seven months. I think McCain has a chance to turn Oregon to the red, but I'm not overly optimistic. For now, The Blogging
Caesar is calling this one a Weak DEM win that should be somewhere between 2000's razor-close finish and 2004's four-point Democratic
victory.
The inflated impression of Oregon's liberal lean also contributes to an air of vulnerability surrounding GOP Senator Gordon Smith. He is up for re-election
this year and, as in 2002, the Democratic faithful see his seat as a pick-up opportunity. Smith certainly isn't a shoo-in for a third term, but neither is he in serious
danger in my view. Last time, Democrats set their sights on him only to see him cruise to a comfortable 56-40 victory. I expect the margin will be
tighter this time, but still in the Mod GOP Hold range.
A quick look at Oregon's five congressional races shows only an open Democratic seat in District 5 can even earn a possibly competitive rating.
Be sure to check out the Oregon state page where you can find a lot more good information.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:35pm 04/10/08
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Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Oklahoma
This state is OK when it comes to presidential and congressional elections. It has given the GOP candidate its electoral votes (currently
seven) without reservation in every election since LBJ, and four of five House seats are solidly in GOP hands. Oddly, given Republican dominance in national
offices, the executive branch of state government is loaded with Democrats.
This year's elections will do little beyond maintaining the status quo. No campaign funds need be spent in Oklahoma to ensure another presidential win for
the GOP and solid re-elections for all five congresspeople. Neither will any money be spent on races for Oklahoma's Senate seats and Governor's Mansion since
they aren't contested this year. All in all, there will be very little fireworks sweeping down the plain around here - but I bet the waving wheat will still
smell sweet.
Visit the Oklahoma state page for the details.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:15pm 04/09/08
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Saturday, April 5, 2008
Fifty-state tour: Ohio
Picture this. A governor with an approval rating in the teens in a state ravaged by economic woes and a congressman indicted
for conspiracy to commit fraud against the United States. Combine that with swelling national tide against them, and you have the environment facing the GOP in
Ohio in 2006. The results could have been worse. Yes, the Democrats did win the statehouse, a Senate seat, and the indicted congressman's House
seat, but the GOP held on to the rest of their delegation, some of whom faced stiff challenges from strong Democratic candidates.
The situation here is a bit different this time. With a presidential race on the ballot and with Barack Obama trailing John McCain by high single digits,
2008 looks to be less severe on the Grand Old Party. Also gone are dead weights Governor Taft and Congressman Ney, not to mention Senate RINO Mike DeWine.
Without Republicans bad guys to point their fingers at, Ohio voters will be inclined to maintain the status quo this year.
That's why The Blogging Caesar is forecasting no party switches in Ohio this fall. The presidential race as well as the congressional races in Districts 1,
15, 16, 18 will all be held by the incumbent party. Of those races, the GOP will be the benficiary of the status quo in all but District 18 where 2006 upset
victor Democrat Zack Space seeks re-election for the first time. His race and the open seat in District 15, featuring a retry by 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy,
are the most likely to switch if any do.
Don't miss all the great stuff on the Ohio state page.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:55pm 04/05/08
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Friday, April 4, 2008
Fifty-state tour: North Dakota
This state is an enigma, one might say. North Dakota gives the GOP presidential and gubernatorial candidates huge margins of
victory every four years while its entire congressional delegation, 2 senators and 1 representative, are Democrats who routinely win their elections by margins
almost as large. Go figure. This year, John McCain, Governor John Hoeven, and Congressman Earl Pomeroy will easily win, keeping North Dakota's
reputation for political schizophrenia intact.
There is some more good information for you to peruse on the North Dakota state page.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:55am 04/04/08
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Thursday, April 3, 2008
Fifty-state tour: North Carolina
Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina! The fifty-state tour has reached my home state. I live in a state that has voted
reliably for the GOP presidential candidate every election since Jimmy Carter's first. This year will make eight straight. Eventually, the Old North
State may become competitive on the presidential front, but that possibility is still a good way off.
Senate races here have been quite a bit more competitive over the last 30 years. But this year will not be. Elizabeth Dole brought a wealth of public
service accomplishments to her first attempt at the Senate in 2002. Since taking office, she has been a solid, if not spectacular, conservative voice for the
voters of North Carolina. She will win re-election by a good margin, one made more comfortable by an absence of first-tier Democratic challengers willing to
take her on.
One race that does appear to be comptetive this year is the race for the Governor's Mansion. Though I hate to admit it given my support for State Senator
Fred Smith (R), I have to say the Democrats have the inside track to replace term-limited Governor Mike Easley. Either Lieutenant Governor Bev Purdue or
State Treasurer Richard Moore will be tough for the GOP nominee to beat. So, this one starts off as a Weak DEM Hold.
In the House, the race for the seat in District 8 stands out immediately as a barnburner. When a race features a rematch between two candidates who were
separated by roughly two tenths of one percent, a thrill ride the second time is almost certain. Such is the case here where GOP incumbent Robin Hayes will
face school teacher Larry Kissell. The Democratic "powers that be" provided very little support for Kissell in 2006, a fact which probably saved Hayes'
seat. This time that will change. Even so, The Blogging Caesar is rating this one a Weak GOP Hold to start. Of all the
races I've handicapped so far, however, this is among the most likely to switch back and forth before Election Day.
See the rest of the goods on the North Carolina state page.
Next stop: North Dakota
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 04/03/08
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