The question then becomes when will this transistion reach critical mass and flip Virginia to blue?  We may see that point reached this year, although I suspect we are still one or two election cycles away.  You can count on Virginia to be a battleground state this year, but The Blogging Caesar thinks John McCain will take it by a Weak GOP margin.

One thing that may prove me wrong on that one is what could be called a "reverse coattails effect."  Down-ticket contests favor the Democrats, starting with the race for retiring GOP Senator John Warner's seat.  With uber-popular Democrat and former Governor Mark Warner trouncing his fellow ex-Governor Jim Gilmore in the polls, the Democratic nominee for president could realize at least a slight tailwind from Warner's likely strong performance.  Warner's presumed victory is among the most certain Democratic takeovers of the cycle.  Unless Gilmore finds a miracle on the way to the voting booth, this one will be a Strong DEM Gain.

The good news doesn't stop there for Democrats in Virginia.  Looking at the House races, the blue team has a good chance to cut into the GOP's 8-3 congressional advantage.  District 11, situated in the increasingly liberal Northern Virginia area, is presently held by Republican Tom Davis.  He is retiring at the end of this term, leaving an open GOP seat vulnerable to a rising opposing demographic.  This race will be very tight, but The Blogging Caesar thinks the political landscape lends itself to a Weak DEM Gain here.  Beyond 11, Congresswoman Thelma Drake in district 2 is also somewhat vulnerable, but she should retain her seat.

This should be an exciting year in Virginia, so you'll want to check out the Virginia state page frequently.

Check out the Vermont state page for more information.

Be sure to check out the Utah state page for more information.

GOP Senator John Cornyn, up for re-election for the first time in 2008, will benefit as well from Texas' conservate streak.  Like McCain (at least in Texas), Cornyn will enjoy a wide margin of victory in November.  The same can be said for a surprising number of the Lone Star State's 32 congresspeople.  In a state this big, it seems odd that only two House seats are remotely competitive and only one of them will be truly competitive.

Democrat Nick Lampson was the beneficiary of Tom Delay's resignation debacle in 2006, winning this extremely red district by 10 over write-in GOP candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.  This year, a GOP challenger's name (Pete Olsen) is on the ballot.  That alone will make Lampson's re-election bid difficult in this district.  Unless Pete Olsen runs a very bad campaign, The Blogging Caesar believes he should win.  Give district 22 back to the GOP in November, Weak GOP Gain.  No other House race in Texas is worth mentioning with the possible exception of Ciro Rodriguez's seat in district 23, and I don't expect to see it moving into the hotly-contested pool anytime soon.

There is much more for your perusal on the Texas state page.

Correction:  Previously, I noted Dick Armey as the former congressman from district 22, not Tom Delay.

In other news, Republican Greg Davis barely avoided defeat in his bid to win the vacant seat of now-Senator Roger Wicker in Mississippi's 1st congressional district.  A runoff will be held on May 13th between Davis and Democrat Travis Childers who actually bested Davis by a 49-47 tally.  This seat is in Republican territory, so yesterday's result is a surprise.  Both the DCCC and the NRCC poured funds into the race in recent weeks as Childer's chances of an upset improved.  A loss in the runoff would be a serious setback for the GOP.  Judging from yesterday's result, that possibility looms large.

Update:  To satisfy some of my readers who have sent emails in about the exact margin, I'm posting this update.  The margin of Hillary's victory, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, is actually 9.2% according to the Pennsylvania State Dept. website I linked to below.  Votes for Hillary total 54.6%; votes for Obama, 45.4%.  If you round their totals to the nearest percent, that results in a 55% to 45% tally and a 10-point margin.  Nevertheless, the more accurate measure would be to do the rounding after calculating the margin.  This procedure yields a 9-point margin.  So it's technically 9 instead of 10.  (Some folks, methinks, need to lighten up!)

If you have posted predictions, send me an email so I can put you on this list.

Moving on down the ticket, we don't see a lot of fireworks brewing.  In the Senate race, GOP incumbent Lamar Alexander should have no problem gaining a return trip to Washington.  In Tennessee's House races, the five Democratic and four Republican representatives should find their way back to Washington without much trouble as well.

The Tennessee state page has more details.

My fellow-blogger and friend John Hawkins of Right Wing News has posted a brief interview with GOP gubernatorial candidate Fred Smith.  In the interview Fred eloquently lays out why he is the best candidate for the GOP nomination and the Governor's Mansion.  I haven't made many "official" endorsements here at Election Projection.  However, since he's running in my home state and since he stands on the issues so close to my own positions, I feel this is an appropriate time for an exception.

If you are a North Carolina fan of Election Projection, let me encourage you to vote in the May 6th primary election for State Senator Fred Smith, a man who stands on rock-solid conservative principles regarding faith and values, economics and illegal immigration.  He's behind moderate Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory in the polls right now, so he needs a strong final push to take the nomination.

Over the next 18 days, he needs us to get his message out at every opportunity.  I intend to help.  And with your help - and the help of others with whom you share Fred's message - he can overcome and win.  Please vote Fred Smith on May 6th - and why not click on the picture below and donate something to his campaign?  Or just click on it to learn more about him.

There's not much more to say here about South Dakota; you can get the rest of the story from the South Dakota state page.

George W. Bush carried the Palmetto State by wide margins in both his presidential campaigns.  You have to go back to 1976 and next-door-neighbor Jimmy Carter's first run to find the last time South Carolina's electoral votes went to the Democratic nominee.  This year the dynamics of the race will be different.  Obama's run will tighten things up a bit here in 2008, but not enough to make it tense for John McCain.  Whereas 2000 and 2004 were solid here for the GOP, this year will just be Strong GOP.

Give the same rating to the first-term Senator Lindsay Graham, up for re-election after replacing the late centenarian Democrat (oops) Republican Strom Thurmond in 2002.  Graham angered some conservatives (not me) by joining McCain in the famous "Gang of 14" alliance.  It won't be enough to seriously threaten his re-election chances however.

None of South Carolina's four GOP congressmen and two Democratic congressmen will be seriously threatened this year, either.

Be sure to check out all the great information on the South Carolina state page.

So will there be any exciting contests, intriguing matchups or surprising upsets in the Ocean State this year?  In a word, no.  The Democratic nominee for president will waltz to an enormous victory here, as will Democratic Senator Jack Reed.  And the two Democratic congressmen don't even have any announced GOP challengers yet.  Frankly, there's little more to say about this most fortified of Democratic bastions.

The rest of the very deep blue details are on the Rhode Island state page.

Since this is an off year for senate and gubernatorial races, we'll move on the House.  If 2006 was a blue wave year, Pennsylvania's Republican delegation was right in its path.  The GOP saw no less than four incumbents flounder amid local scandals and national hostility.  If there is anything positive as we approach this year's election, it is that the remaining Republicans are not very vulnerable.  In fact, Democrats hold both seats in Election Projection's hotly contested House races list.  And they are both freshmen representatives who won their seats two years ago.

In District 10, Chris Carney faces two solid candidates, one of whom can emerge to give the incumbent a stout challenge if they don't abuse each other too bad before the primary.  In District 4, we have an exciting rematch brewing between former Representative Melissa Hart and the Democrat, incumbent Jason Altmire, who unseated her in 2006.  These two races start out as Weak DEM Holds, but don't be surprised if either switches a time or two before November.  Also don't be surprised to see one or more additional PA House races join the hotly contested list in the coming months.

The Pennsylvania state page is loaded with lots of great details.  Why not check it out?

November should once again prove that point.  Already, polls indicate John McCain faring decently against the two Democratic contenders.  A lot can and will happen over the next seven months.  I think McCain has a chance to turn Oregon to the red, but I'm not overly optimistic.  For now, The Blogging Caesar is calling this one a Weak DEM win that should be somewhere between 2000's razor-close finish and 2004's four-point Democratic victory.

The inflated impression of Oregon's liberal lean also contributes to an air of vulnerability surrounding GOP Senator Gordon Smith.  He is up for re-election this year and, as in 2002, the Democratic faithful see his seat as a pick-up opportunity.  Smith certainly isn't a shoo-in for a third term, but neither is he in serious danger in my view.  Last time, Democrats set their sights on him only to see him cruise to a comfortable 56-40 victory.  I expect the margin will be tighter this time, but still in the Mod GOP Hold range.

A quick look at Oregon's five congressional races shows only an open Democratic seat in District 5 can even earn a possibly competitive rating.

Be sure to check out the Oregon state page where you can find a lot more good information.

This year's elections will do little beyond maintaining the status quo.  No campaign funds need be spent in Oklahoma to ensure another presidential win for the GOP and solid re-elections for all five congresspeople.  Neither will any money be spent on races for Oklahoma's Senate seats and Governor's Mansion since they aren't contested this year.  All in all, there will be very little fireworks sweeping down the plain around here - but I bet the waving wheat will still smell sweet.

Visit the Oklahoma state page for the details.

The situation here is a bit different this time.  With a presidential race on the ballot and with Barack Obama trailing John McCain by high single digits, 2008 looks to be less severe on the Grand Old Party.  Also gone are dead weights Governor Taft and Congressman Ney, not to mention Senate RINO Mike DeWine.  Without Republicans bad guys to point their fingers at, Ohio voters will be inclined to maintain the status quo this year.

That's why The Blogging Caesar is forecasting no party switches in Ohio this fall.  The presidential race as well as the congressional races in Districts 1, 15, 16, 18 will all be held by the incumbent party.  Of those races, the GOP will be the benficiary of the status quo in all but District 18 where 2006 upset victor Democrat Zack Space seeks re-election for the first time.  His race and the open seat in District 15, featuring a retry by 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy, are the most likely to switch if any do.

Don't miss all the great stuff on the Ohio state page.

There is some more good information for you to peruse on the North Dakota state page.

Senate races here have been quite a bit more competitive over the last 30 years.  But this year will not be.  Elizabeth Dole brought a wealth of public service accomplishments to her first attempt at the Senate in 2002.  Since taking office, she has been a solid, if not spectacular, conservative voice for the voters of North Carolina.  She will win re-election by a good margin, one made more comfortable by an absence of first-tier Democratic challengers willing to take her on.

One race that does appear to be comptetive this year is the race for the Governor's Mansion.  Though I hate to admit it given my support for State Senator Fred Smith (R), I have to say the Democrats have the inside track to replace term-limited Governor Mike Easley.  Either Lieutenant Governor Bev Purdue or State Treasurer Richard Moore will be tough for the GOP nominee to beat.  So, this one starts off as a Weak DEM Hold.

In the House, the race for the seat in District 8 stands out immediately as a barnburner.  When a race features a rematch between two candidates who were separated by roughly two tenths of one percent, a thrill ride the second time is almost certain.  Such is the case here where GOP incumbent Robin Hayes will face school teacher Larry Kissell.  The Democratic "powers that be" provided very little support for Kissell in 2006, a fact which probably saved Hayes' seat.  This time that will change.  Even so, The Blogging Caesar is rating this one a Weak GOP Hold to start.  Of all the races I've handicapped so far, however, this is among the most likely to switch back and forth before Election Day.

See the rest of the goods on the North Carolina state page.

Next stop:  North Dakota

Of the four hotly-contested seats on the radar, three are currently held by Republicans.  One of them, the open seat of retiring Congressman Jim Walsh in District 25, features the man who almost beat Walsh last time, Democrat Dan Maffei.  Without the luxury of incumbency, the GOP's chances are less than rosy.  Looks like another one bites the dust - Weak DEM Gain.

The most likely to switch parties of the other three is another open seat in District 26 - and another GOP seat.  Tom Reynolds' retirement has the Democrats hopeful of shrinking the GOP House delegation from New York down to just four.  However, this seat will start out as a Weak GOP Hold.

On the Democratic side, only one of their 23 seats is vulnerable.  Freshman congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand faces a strong challenge in District 20 from former New York Secretary of State and state GOP Chairman Sandy Treachwell.  Both are well-financed, but the previously-mentioned luxury of incumbency gives Gillibrand the upper hand for now - Weak DEM Hold.

The New York state page has the whole, rather large, story.  Don't miss it!

Next stop:  North Carolina

Complicating the matter for the GOP is the retirement of long-time Senator Pete Domenici.  His seat will be contested by, ironically, all three of New Mexico's congresspeople.  I am not aware of a time when that has ever happened.  Among the three, Democrat Tom Udall appears to be in the best shape.  Polls have shown him way out in front of both GOP candidates.  It looks like a good year to be blue in New Mexico.  For now, I'll go with the numbers and project a Weak DEM Gain.

And the hits don't stop there.  Heather Wilson's entry into the Senate race has left the Democratic-leaning seat in District 1 up for grabs.  The GOP has been able to enlist a strong candidate in Sheriff Darron White, so hope remains that this seat will stay in the red column.  However, as Larry Sabato says, "this will likely be one of the fall's most competitive races with the strength of White's candidacy balanced against a pro-Democratic demographic and national mood."  Until I see the mood rising out there, I'm rating this one a Weak DEM Gain as well.

Well, that completes the Democratic sweep here.  Please check out the New Mexico state page for more information.

Next stop:  New York