Projecting the upcoming elections
  and commenting on things along the way
...
Election Projection        
2004 Edition        
Political Weblog | 2004 Election Projection | Projection Formula | State-by-state Analysis | The Blogging Caesar Bio | Reader Comments    

 Archives:  04/01/04 thru 04/30/04


e-mail Scott at:
thebloggingcaesar
@electionprojection.com

Edicts and Commentary

April 30, 2004

Polling data update

FINALLY!!  After two long weeks with several stops and starts, the Election Projection has been updated.  The formula has been overhauled.  Go read it if you want the whole scoop.  I'll hit the major points here:

  • State polls are used for all 50 states where available and only if they are recent.
  • Nader's votes from 2000 are now broken down between Bush and Kerry based on 2000 exit polls.  Fifty percent goes to Kerry; twenty percent to Bush. (The other 30% said they would've stayed home.)
  • The head-to-head category is now a composite average of five polls without Nader and five polls with him.
  • The baseline adjustment has been recalculated to more closely reflect actual Election 2000 results.
I've also added a couple of enhancements that I hope you'll enjoy.
  • A "Changes due to State Polls" section that shows what effect adding state polls to the mix has on the overall result.
  • A "State of the States" section that breaks down all states according to their margin. This summary provides a quick reference for finding out which states are solidly out of play and which ones are in danger of flipping sides.
  • A "Detailed Data" page which reveals all the numbers as I calculate them.  This is a great resource for number junkies like me and for those who want to make sure I'm on my p's and q's!
Now to the first returns using the new formula.  Are you kidding me??  The President is slightly behind Senator Kerry in the popular vote, 48.56% - 49.61%, while once again winning the electoral vote race, 274-264!  So, after hours and hours of data processing using the new formula, we're right back where we ended up almost 4 years ago!  Without state polls included, Kerry would win Florida and Bush would win New Hampshire.  The first state poll advantage goes to the President.

This upgrade has been a lot of work, but I'm so glad I went ahead and made the changes. It is going to be so much fun watching these numbers ebb and flow throughout the election season. Anyone else out there excited?

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His previous lows were 181 EVs with a margin of -6.63% on September 5, 2003.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 04/30/04

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April 26, 2004

More delays on the update

Unfortunately, I've entered into an expected battle with a very difficult foe.  The virus has me! For the last several days, I've been extremely sick.  Hence, no update.  I haven't even been well enough to monitor the comments - hope you guys have been good!  I do apologize to all of you and share your disappointment that the numbers have not materialized.  Rest assured, I haven't abandoned ship.  If you know me at all from this website, you must know that it pains me to leave the projection in Kerry's favor for so long, especially when the latest numbers show a redder situation.  Oh, well!

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:05pm 04/26/04

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April 21, 2004

Update on the polling data update

I'm sure there are many out there who are disappointed to see no update so far this week. Well, as I've mentioned earlier, I'm adding state polling to the projection and making allowances for a Nader candidacy.  In addition to the large amount of work that is going into these changes, I'm also swamped at my real job.  Yes, the demands of the job that puts food on the table must supercede the demands of this website.  I'm sure you understand.  Don't worry, though, the next update is on its way.  Certainly by the weekend, if not before, your thirst for the numbers will be quenched!

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:15am 04/21/04

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Wictory Wednesday

After several weeks of skipping the Wictory Wednesday post, I'm back at it.  That's because we so badly need to make sure President Bush remains such for four more years.  So what can you do?  Vote!.  But more than that, you can join me and the other bloggers listed below and get involved.

So, please consider volunteering and/or donating to the Bush 2004 campaign.  If you've already donated and volunteered for the Bush campaign, then talk to your friends and make sure they are actively helping our cause as well.

If you're a blogger, you can join Wictory Wednesdays simply by putting up a post like this one every Wednesday, asking your readers to volunteer and/or donate to the Bush campaign.  If you do decide to join, e-mail PoliPundit at wictory@blogsforbush.com so that he can add you to the Wictory Wednesday blogroll, which will be part of the Wictory Wednesday post on all participating blogs:

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:15am 04/21/04

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April 19, 2004

Remembering my parents

Larry Thomas Elliott (1943-2004)  Jean Dover Elliott (1945-2004)

Well, it was 5 weeks ago today that my parents went home to be with the Lord.  My family and I rejoice for them even as we mourn for ourselves.  We are so grateful for the assurance that they are in absolute bliss, bathed in the Father's care.  The hurt is still intense at times; yet we know we are parted but for a time.  We will surely meet them again when this life is over. Unlike these temporal bodies which bloom and quickly whither, the work that God did through their lives and the work He is still doing through their deaths will never pass away.

My parents truly lived the convictions they professed.  They were in the middle of God's will for them when He called them home.  I have no doubt they would have gone to Iraq for the eternal good of the people there even if they had known for sure they would be martyred. That's because Jesus' love transcends earthly trials and tribulations.  I saw time and time again the willingness to give up what they could have had in order to meet the needs of the people around them.  This is the face of true Christianity.  Though Christ passionately hates sin and in no way condones it, He even more passionately loves the sinner and has given His life that we might be saved.  My parents gave their lives demonstrating that love.

I can truly say that I have no anger towards the ones who took my parents' earthly lives, for I believe they are but lost little children who have an eternity in hell coming unless, at some point in their lives, they choose to receive Jesus' gift of salvation.  I hurt for them much more than I hurt for me.  My fervent prayer is that in my parents' death many more would find eternal life through Christ who suffered and died for ALL of us.

If you don't know Jesus, please send me an email and let me share Him with you.

Update:  Several of my very astute readers, one of whom happens to be my lovely wife, have pointed out an oversight in the original post concerning the fate of my parents' killers.  I did not mean to imply that those responsible for my parents' deaths had no chance to see Heaven. No sin is too great that Jesus cannot forgive.  If these people humbly accept Jesus' forgiveness, they, too, can be saved.  Wouldn't that be awesome?  I'd love to be the one to share that message with them for my heart truly does ache for them.  I've edited the post to reflect a more accurate picture of their circumstances.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05pm 04/19/04

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It's a GOP Texas

A long, bitter redistricting battle in Texas is over.  The good guys won!  The Supreme Court has refused to hear the case against a contentious redistricting plan drawn up and approved by the GOP-controlled legislature.  Since it has now cleared the last legal hurdle, this plan will give the GOP a shot at picking up 6 additional House seats, removing any realistic hope the Democrats had to regain control of that legislative body this November.
(link via RealClearPolitics)

Texas has been a GOP-dominated population for some time; now its representation will reflect that ideological leaning.  It was an appropriate change.  I take my hat off to my fellow Republicans there not only for the gumption they showed in getting it passed, but also in the care they took to assure it would withstand legal challenges.  Way to go, guys!  Now if we could only elect two GOP senators from the 30 states President Bush won in 2000, we'd have a filibuster-proof Senate to go along with our takeover-proof House.

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:50pm 04/19/04

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April 16, 2004

Enter state polls

I've begun the rather large undertaking to include state polls in my projections.  The next polling data update will include state numbers for at least the battleground states.  I'm still working out the details on how to handle Ralph Nader, but I will say that he will weigh very lightly in the calculations.  Simply put, I don't believe he'll have nearly the effect he had in 2000.  His vote totals will be far below what he got last time...if he's even running at all by election day.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:30pm 04/16/04

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April 15, 2004

Showcase Blogs of the Week:  The Fourth Rail  &  Federal Review

This is installment number four of my weekly blog showcase.  Since I missed the last few weeks due to my parents passing, I decided to show off two blogs this week.  Please don't slight either of them in favor of the other.  Take time to visit them both.  Now that things are settling down, I hope to resume posting these showcases every week.

  • Bill Roggio has recently started the Fourth Rail blog.  Already he is providing good information with insightful commentary on politics and the war on terror.  I look forward to seeing his influence expand.  He is less than a month old, but it's clear he brings a lot to the table.  He will be a regular read for me.

  • I've linked a couple of times to Federal Review.  Winston has always offered high-quality posts on his blog, but he recently added a feature that is sure to garner much more attention. He has concocted an election projection formula (sound familiar?) that he uses to determine his take on who will win this year's election.  I guess that makes us competitors, but I don't mind giving him a plug since his projection is such great stuff.

    If you run a blog, and you'd like to be showcased here. Send me an email:  blogshowcase.

    Disclaimer:  These showcases do not represent blanket approval of all content on featured blogs.  The subject matter tends to vary greatly from day to day on any given blog.  Please understand that I cannot peruse all the information on these sites, nor can I predict what information will be posted in the future.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:40pm 04/15/04

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    April 13, 2004

    Polling data update

    The temporary dip of which I spoke last time has just gotten a little longer and a little deeper. The situation in Iraq, worrisome to all Americans, appears to be weighing heavily on Bush's numbers.   Even stellar job news for March hasn't been enough to overcome the increasing casualties and unrest over there.  As a result, Senator Kerry has pulled ahead of the President in this week's Election Projection.  The Democratic nominee-to-be leads the popular vote by almost 3 percentage points, 50.93% - 48.07%.  That margin has enabled him to capture a majority of electoral votes as well.  Florida has eased back into the Senator's camp, giving him a 291-247 advantage.  Although my liberal friends might call me a blind optimist, I still believe Kerry won't be able to stay on top for long.  The President will regain the lead.

    Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January.
    His previous lows were 181 EVs with a margin of -6.63% on September 5, 2003.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:30am 04/13/04

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    April 5, 2004

    Polling data update

    The latest Election Projection indicates that if the elections were held today, the President would again be elected by a minority.  For the second time since I began publishing these results, Bush is trailing Kerry in the projected popular vote percentage (48.86% - 50.14%) while leading him in projected electoral votes (274-264).  I mentioned last time, after Bush regained the lead for the first time in over a month, that we should see a steady increase in his margin over the next few months.  I still believe this will be true even though there may be some temporary dips along the way.  Since the recent awesome job numbers had not been announced when these polls were conducted, this update should be just that - a temporary dip.

    Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January.
    His previous lows were 181 EVs with a margin of -6.63% on September 5, 2003.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 4:40pm 04/05/04

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