Introducing Alex Hammer, candidate for governor of Maine
If you've spent any time at all on this website, you've probably noticed the lack of coverage I give to third-party and
independent candidates. Except in places like Vermont, these candidates rarely present a legitimate challenge in statewide or congressional
races. On occasion, I have been approached by an independent candidate or two and have tried to accommodate their requests for at least a
mention on Election Projection.
Alex Hammer is one such candidate. Beyond a simple request for mention, however, Mr. Hammer has corresponded with me at length about his vision
for Maine and his prospects of following in the footsteps of former successful independent gubernatorial candidates from Maine such as Angus King and
Jim Longley. I have taken a look at his positions on fiscal and social issues and find him to be an intriguing match for an independently-minded
state such as Maine. Fiscally, he is a conservative who believes in smaller and more efficient government. Socially, he is more
conservative than I would have thought for a non-GOPer from a northeastern state.
While I can't go so far as to endorse his candidacy over the Republican in this race, I do see him as a much better alternative than the current
Democratic governor. And his willingness to honestly and openly answer my questions bodes well for him. He is the first
actual candidate to pursue The Blogging Caesar, and I am happy to oblige with this post. If nothing more, maybe it will help him raise awareness
of his candidacy and give him a chance to impact the debate up there in Maine.
You can visit his website at www.Hammer2006.com.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:10pm 05/31/06
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Tuesday, May 30, 2006
RATING CHANGE ALERT: Alaska Governor
When I posted my preview of Alaska, I called the governor's race there
a weak GOP hold with this caveat: "The biggest question surrounding this race concerns [Tony] Knowles. If he decides to run for his old seat -
which he might - things would immediately brighten further for the Democrats in this race. .. If he goes for it, that will have to change
to weak Dem gain." (Thanks to reader Blaine, who reminded me I made that statement.) Yesterday, Knowles did indeed
decide to run.
With two terms as governor and a close loss in a run for
the Senate under his belt, Knowles is the most formidible opponent Alaskan Democrats can muster. Add to that incumbent Frank Murkowski's troubles
and you have the ingredients for a takeover - even in a GOP-leaning state. Regrettably, The Blogging Caesar must follow through with my earlier
pledge and move this race from weak GOP hold to Weak DEM Gain. This change gives the Democrats a 7-statehouse gain
among governors. Election Projection now projects the Dems to hold a 29-21 advantage over the GOP after the elections.
Update: I failed to mention that Jarod
was the first to correctly pick this change in the contest thread. High honorable mention goes to
Blaine, noted above, who stated that Alaska would go DEM as soon as
the news of Knowles decision broke.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:40pm 05/30/06
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RATING CHANGE ALERT: Iowa Governor and Nevada Senate
I'm hearing talk that Chet Culver is not a strong candidate and will have a difficult time against Jim Nussle. However,
his continued small but legitimate lead in the polls in Iowa do not give me comfort. When balanced against the numbers, hearsay doesn't quite
add up in my book. So, I'm changing this race from weak GOP gain to Weak DEM Hold.
I initially felt former President Carter's son Jack would be a pretty strong contender for John Ensign's senate seat in Nevada. Polls are
not bearing that out. Ensign is ahead by 20 points in the latest poll. Without any history of closer polls in this race (unlike Pennsylvania's
governor's race), The Blogging Caesar does not see the point in calling this race a weak GOP hold. Instead, I moving it to
Strong GOP Hold.
I previewed these alerts by holding a contest to see who could guess the changes. Many commenters got one of the two correct. Several
got both right. The winning comment - the first to get it right - goes to
Logan. Good job.
A complete revised listing of my Senate and gubernatorial race ratings is up. Check them out here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:25pm 05/29/06
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Friday, May 26, 2006
Updated race ratings
Senate
Even though I don't believe for a second that Tom Kean will defeat Robert Menendez in New Jersey, his
continued strong showing in the polls has caused me to move that race from 9th to 8th ahead of Debbie Stabenow's race in Michigan. Unlike
Kean, the GOP challengers there are not polling well. As a result, I've also moved the Michigan Senate race from Moderately Vulnerable
to Mildly Vulnerable.
Since Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN) will have no Democrat listed against him on the Indiana ballot, I've move that race down 6 spots from 24th
to 30th. Why not move it to least vulnerable you say? Because I think a write-in candidate would probably have a better shot at bringing
Lugar down than those named on a ballot would have against Tom Carper, Craig Thomas, or Teddy Kennedy.
Governors
Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) appears to be in a bit more difficult race than I originally suspected. Minnesota's race for the statehouse has been moved up
from 17th to 16th, switching places with Nevada. I've also moved this race from Mildly Vulnerable to Moderately Vulnerable.
Sonny Perdue (R-GA) also finds himself in a closer race than expected. Due to Cathy Cox's strong numbers, I've decided to move the Peach State's
governor race up from 25th to 22nd, passing Alabama, Vermont, and Kansas.
House
No changes were posted this week. Previous rankings still apply.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:05pm 05/19/06
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Bush on illegal immigration
Tonight, President Bush addressed perhaps the hottest of the hot button issues in the political pipeline today - illegal
immigration. In his speech, the President positioned himself somewhere in the middle of the debate. He is obviously far from those who would
erect a wall on our southern border today and deport millions of illegals tomorrow. On the other hand, he tried to distance himself from those
who would offer "an automatic path to citizenship." This, he said, is amnesty, and he is opposed to it. Instead, he offered a five-part solution
to the problem.
Secure the borders: Bush proposed adding 6,000 more border patrol agents by the end of 2008, bringing the total to 18,000.
He also reported "the most technologically advanced border security initiative in American history." High-tech fences, motion sensors, new
patrol roads and barriers, unmanned aerial vehicles, and infrared cameras will all be utilized to keep more illegals from entering the U.S. As these
new agents and technologies are being trained and implemented, Bush called for the deployment of 6000 National Guard men and women to the southern
border to help ease the transition and immediately effect the flow of illegal traffic across the border.
Create a temporary worker program: The President seeks to decrease the motivation of those who enter the U.S. illegally by establishing
a temporary worker program which will give would-be immigrants a more easily accessible way to come here legally. The real strength of this
program, Bush asserted, is that we would have greater control over those who are here, why they are here, and how long they stay. And when such
a program is available, Bush's thinking goes, human smugglers and long walks across the desert would become less appealing.
Hold employers accountable: The President favors holding employers accountable for their hiring practices. Yet, he said, the
epidemic of document fraud rolling through the illegal immigrant population makes it difficult for employers to know the status of the people they hire.
Bush put forward the idea of a tamper-proof identification card for legal foreign workers. These cards would likely include some form of biometric
authentication mechanism, such as a digital fingerprint, to ensure authenticity and to "leave employers with no excuse for violating" immigrant hiring
laws.
Address the illegal immigrants already here: "We must face the reality that millions of illegal immigrants are already here." With
that, Bush began his treatment of the most contentious facet of the illegal immigration debate - what to do about illegals living in the U.S. today.
Granting any advantage on the road to citizenship to those are have lived here would not be the right way to approach this situation. But, he said,
long-time residents who came here illegally should be differentiated from those just arrived. He believes "those who have roots in our country"
should be required to pay "a meaningful penalty" for breaking the law, but that they should then be allowed to apply for citizenship just like any other
immigrant. To pay the penalty, to the President, is to repay their debt to society for their illegal activity.
Encourage assimilation into the American culture: In this last part of his solution, the President touted the "shared ideals,"
"appreciation of our history," and "respect for the flag we fly" as necessary components to which all immigrants should aspire. Perhaps most
significant in the quest to assimilate into our culture is acquiring the ability to read and write English. If immigrants commit themselves
to these ideals, the President said, "they add to the unity of America."
Like many conservatives, I've grown weary of many aspects of Bush's presidency - his immigration policy being one. Going into the speech
tonight, I was pessimistic. This illegal immigration problem is a behemoth of the highest order, and it is growing. Bush's speech did a
little to assuage that pessimism.
I am encouraged by his plan to beef up border patrols and deploy high-tech tools to tighten our borders. These are positive steps that will
produce concrete results as long as they are accompanied by the authority necessary to actually turn illegals away. I also strongly support
the concept of biometric-enabled ID cards to give employers a way to surely verify prospective hires. But again they must be accompanied by
diligent, blanket enforcement of the law. Employers will now be without excuse, but will they be prosecuted for infractions?
The main issue I have with the temporary worker program is two-fold. First, when it comes to the fight against illegal immigration, such a program
is tantamount to surrender. What this proposal says to me is this: "Since we can't keep them out, let's just create a way for them to come
in legally." Second, how will we enforce the time limit? When a temporary worker's time expires, what if he doesn't want to go back
home? It seems to me that we're just replacing a splash through the Rio Grande and ride in the back of a smuggler's 18-wheeler with some paperwork
and a waiting period.
As for current illegals, the issue is as complicated as it is contentious. Unlike some, I don't see the feasibility of mass deportations.
Not because of the "roots" of long-term illegals, but because of the enormity of the task. To find, identify, and transport millions of illegal
immigrants would require more resources and time than anyone - even hard-liners, I think - really wants to invest to that end. The right answer -
deporting every single illegal and requiring them to pay a fine to re-enter the country (to pay their "debt to society") is the impossible answer.
Yet we cannot just make the problem go away by granting amnesty and citizenship.
That being the reality, I must grudgingly acknowledge that,
indeed, some type of "rational middle ground" contains the only workable solutions. I do not know the details of what the President has in mind
in this regard, but a substantial monetary penalty and no advancement whatsoever down the path to citizenship seems to traverse that middle ground well
enough. By definition then, in the absence of a deportation mechanism, it would follow that paying the fine removes the qualifier "illegal" from
the immigrant's designation. Overall, this is not the ideal solution, but it is a reasonable one.
Finally, all this talk about "assimilation" is a bunch of nice-sounding rhetoric. How can we ever hope for these immigrants to assimilate
when they see themselves as Mexicans (or whatever) now and forever and the liberal political correctness crowd cries foul if any document they might
need to read is not available in Spanish? As we saw recently in the remarkably arrogant and defiant protests by thousands of illegals, resistance
is not futile, assimilation is.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35pm 05/15/06
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Bill Nelson appointed to second term in Senate
Today was the filing deadline for candidacy in Florida. In what was supposed to be a time of GOP optimism at the Florida
Secretary of State's office, Republican Katherine Harris instead eagerly appointed incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson to a second term. In
a mock ceremony, Ms. Harris proudly announed once again that she was going to earmark millions of dollars of her own fortune to ensure Nelson's
place in the Senate for at least 6 more years. She then resoundingly slammed shut the door on all legitimate challengers to Nelson's seat and
placed the Senate scepter into a gleeful Nelson's out-stretched hands. It was a moving event for the crowd of Democratic faithful in attendance,
many of whom could be heard chanting "Woo-hoo, Kath-er-ine."
The mood was decidedly different than after the election in 2000. Demonized then by the Democrats for her completely appropriate role in Bush's
victory, Ms. Harris, perhaps in a move to placate their angry mobs, chose to bestow on them a pre-election gift. Said the sitting U.S.
Representative, "You Democrats can now use all those campaign funds it would have taken to compete against a real GOP candidate in Florida to fight against
legitimate GOP candidates in other states." Then, as the partisan crowd whooped it up, she added "With my appointment of Senator Nelson, you
won't have to worry about the GOP gaining another Florida Senate seat."
The above ceremony did not actually occur, of course, but with the stubborn refusal of Ms. Harris to get out of this race, it might as well have.
Thanks a lot, Katherine.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:30pm 05/12/06
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CA-50: Field clears for Bilbray
David Wissing over at The Hedgehog Report says that Republican Eric
Roach has decided to end his quest for the general election nomination in California's CD-50. He explains the unique nature of this race...
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If case you’ve forgotten, there is a very important Special Election coming up on June 6th to see who will replace Duke Cunningham in the US House.
Because of the way things worked out, the Special Election will occur on the same day voters choose the General Election nominees for the same seat.
Until yesterday, it appeared the Republicans, while already choosing Brian Bilbray as their candidate for the Special Election, still had a potentially
divisive fight over their candidate for the General Election in November.
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David goes on to say that he thinks this may not be as good a development for the GOP as it might appear. Go read his
rationale. I see his point, but I still think avoiding a devision in-party battle is
almost always a good thing. We'll see on June 6th.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:15pm 05/09/06
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RATING CHANGE ALERTS: Texas CD-22, Wyoming CD-AL
No change in color here; just some minor ratings changes. First, Delay's resignation makes it very likely that a Republican
will retain his seat. Until I see polling data suggesting a close race, I'm moving this race off the competitive race chart and calling it a
possible competitive race.
Second, did you see the latest poll from Wyoming? Remarkably, Gary Trauner, the Democratic challenger to Rep. Barbara Cubin, is within 4 points
in that race. I'm not ready just yet to declared this race competitive, but in my mind this poll certainly moves this race into the possibly
competitive category.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:20pm 05/08/06
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Poll: Eight big state governorships on the line
The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. Did you know that all eight of the largest states - in
terms of population - are electing governors this year? Right now, the GOP holds 5 of them - CA, NY, TX, FL, OH - and the Dems hold 3 - Il, PA,
MI. Of these eight, how many races do you think the GOP will win in November? Answer this week's poll question and debate it here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:40am 05/08/06
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Sunday, May 7, 2006
Tracking initiated for Texas
I've started tracking polls and calculating projections for the Texas races. You can see the format by checking out
Texas' state page. Two down, forty-eight to go. North Carolina, Illinois, and Indiana will be coming
soon, followed by Nebraska and West Virginia whose primary elections will be held on Tuesday. The formula I will be using is still a bit in flux
as I try to settle on uniform set of measurements that will be accurate for all races.
The main hypothesis of the formula will be that an average of the latest poll from several polling firms is a good indication of the eventual
vote. Therefore, that metric will get the vast majority of the weight in my formula. Other factors, such as the voting history, incumbent
approval and extenuating circumstances will be used to tweak the result gathered from polls. A more complete explanation of the formula will be
posted when I iron out all the details.
Here are the initial "official" projections for Texas:
Senate: Key Bailey Hutchison(R) over Barbara Ann Radnofsky(D) by 33.6%
Governor: Rick Perry(R) over Chris Bell(D) by 18.3%
NOTE: Though the two other candidates running for Governor will have an impact on the numbers, they won't change the outcome and will
not be included in these calculations.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:45pm 05/07/06
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Saturday, May 6, 2006
Weekly Governor ratings update
Unlike yesterday's Senate ratings update, there is some movement this week in the
Governors' ratings list.
Chet Culver seems to be doing much better against Jim Nussle in Iowa. So I've moved this race down from 5th to 7th most vulnerable. I'm
very near a rating change on this race in fact. Currently, I rate this race as a Weak GOP Gain, however, that could change if Culver comes
out ahead of Nussle in the next round of polls. Arkansas and Colorado move up to 5th and 6th, respectively.
With Judy Topinka polling even with or slightly ahead of Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and the Governator polling ahead of his Democratic
opponents, I believe that there currently a greater chance of both Republicans winning than both losing. As a result I've flip-flopped these
two races. Illinois is now 8th; California is 9th.
Republican Mark Green appears to be putting some heat on James Doyle in Wisconsin, recently polling within 2 points of the incumbent. Doyle is
looking a bit more vulnerable than the statehouses in Florida and Maine. So I've moved Wisconsin up 2 spots to 13th.
In Alabama, which should be easy for the GOP, incumbent Bob Riley looks like he'll weather the challenge from Judge Roy Moore in the GOP primary.
Without having to sweat too much about that contest, Riley should be easily re-elected. Alabama falls one spot, coming in at 22nd.
Not that it matters, but I've also move Jodi Rell's Connecticut contest from 32nd to 34th. She continues to post astronimically high
job approval and re-elect numbers.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:25pm 05/03/06
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Weekly Senate ratings update
Last week I posted my first Senate ratings list which ordered all 33 races from the most vulnerable to the least.
Every Tuesday, from now until Election Day, I will be revisiting the list and making any changes I feel are necessary to the rankings.
This week's list is up. After Lincoln Chafee's surprisingly strong performance in a Rhode Island poll, I felt like he might move down on the
list. However, another poll release later showed Mike DeWine in Ohio doing quite well as well. As a result, I decided to leave the
list unchanged this week. Check back next Tuesday to see who's moving up and who's moving down.
Update: Sorry, I forgot post a link to the list - it's here. (Link fixed)
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 05/02/06
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