EDICT #6: Ralph Nader will get less than 1.5 million votes in November
Since Nader announced the beginning of this year's senseless run for the White House, I've held the opinion that he won't be nearly the factor
he was last time. In 2000, he received 2,883,105 votes, or 2.73% of the total. The Blogging Caesar hereby decrees that Nader's vote count this year will not top 1,500,000.
Many lefties who voted for him then will not want to take part in the demise of another one of their own. Regardless of what he and many conservatives
say, if Ralph Nader were not on the ballot in 2000, Al Gore would be in the White House today. I, for one, am grateful to the man for that.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00pm 05/28/04
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May 26, 2004
Polling data update
Is this the end? Has the hole grown too deep? Is our beloved President really going down in November? I say
absolutely not! There's plenty of time for George Dubya to come roaring back. However, I'm convinced next Tuesday, were it election day, would
be a very sad one for Bushies like me. It's obvious that Bush is currently losing the race for White House version 2005. This week's
Election Projection certainly attests to that. Senator Kerry, the off-again, on-again Democratic nominee, has acquired a good
bit of breathing room in his quest to unseat President Bush. He leads by 7.57% (52.87% - 45.30%) in the popular vote projection which translates to a
whopping 337-201 advantage in the all-important electoral vote count.
Looking deeper into the data, we see that the President's increasingly negative job approval numbers are beginning to be reflected in
the latest round of presidential preference polls. For the first time this year, the projection shows Kerry beating Bush head-to-head. Nader's presence makes
little difference. In fact, I believe we're seeing how insignificant his alleged candidacy will be this year. I'm going to be issuing two edicts
in the near future. One will quantify Mr. Nader's useless popularity grab; the other will address Mr. Bush's dismal numbers. Stayed tuned...
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. This update, for the second week in a row, represents
his largest popular vote deficit to date.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:50pm 05/26/04
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May 25, 2004
Busy, busy, busy
Just a quick note to let everyone know I'm still here. Work demands and other obligations are
completely crowding out my blogging and projecting. As a result, this week's projection is going to be delayed for a few days. Don't
fret, though, the election is still months away, and I'm sure once things settle down for me (and they will very soon),
I'll be back to blogging my heart out! In the meantime, the projection will continue to be refreshed. I hope this will be the only delay.
I look forward to getting back to my usual weekly updates.
One other thing, I've suspended commenting for a while. There's been an unacceptable increase in profanity on the board.
I'll reinstate it with the next update for as long as people can keep the profanity out of the discussions.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:50pm 05/25/04
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May 15, 2004
Polling data update
If you are a liberal, this week's Election Projection will be a mighty fine sight.
A mighty fine sight, indeed. Bad news in Iraq and higher gas prices at home are completely overshadowing the ecomony's stunning
performance over the last couple months. As a result, Senator Kerry is now trouncing the President by over seven percentage points,
52.69% - 45.48%. That substantial margin translates to a 327-211 lead in electoral votes. Since my last update, Missouri and Nevada
have flown the coop, bringing to five the number of states won by Bush in 2000 that are projected to go into Kerry's column this year.
Moreover, the situation would be even worse without the influence of state polling data. Bush retains Arizona and West Virginia thanks to those
polls.
Looking at the current projection, my predictions may seem completely absurd. However, I must note that in
1988, Vice President Bush Sr. trailed Michael Dukakis by 17% much later in the election season and came back to win going away.
I know the historical precedent for incumbents would foretell a dismal election for this Mr. Bush, but I believe we are in a unique circumstance
this year. If the situation in Iraq improves by mid-summer, then the stellar economy will take center stage. Once that happens,
the referendum on his Presidency will take a decidedly positive turn. So, I'm going to stand by my predictions for a little while
longer. Things can change quickly and dramatically in political campaigns. I'm still betting that they will change for the better.
I do realize that the situation in Iraq might not turn out so well. If that happens, all bets are off.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. This update represents his largest popular vote
deficit yet.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:25am 05/15/04
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May 8, 2004
Polling data update
Uh oh! The President's numbers have taken a definite hit from the Iraqi prisoner abuse story.
As a result, the latest Election Projection shows Senator Kerry with a substantial lead.
In fact, it's the biggest lead he's had this year. Adding in state polls doesn't change the result. Kerry's lead
right now is pretty solid. He leads by almost 4% in popular vote, 51.04% - 47.13%. The electoral vote picture is
even rosier for Mr. Kerry where he now has a 311-227 advantage. Both Florida and Ohio have switched sides since the last update and are
now colored blue.
We'll have to see if this story runs it's course without permanently damaging Bush. If it does, then the economy's
awesome performance lately should start to bolster his standing with the voting public. If not, Kerry will be in much
better shape going into the conventions than I believed he would be. I'm not yet conceding that Kerry has a chance to
win, though. I still feel the uber-liberal Senator is unelectable. He'll just put up a better fight if the situation
in Iraq continues to weaken President Bush.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His previous lows were 181 EVs with a margin of -6.63% on September 5, 2003.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 05/08/04
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