Edict #7: The President's low-water mark for 2004 was 201 EV's on May 26
The Blogging Caesar hereby declares that the President has officially turned the corner.
Last month on May 26, Bush was projected to win a scant 201 electoral votes.
By decree of said Caesar, the President will not be projected to win less than that for the remainder of the
election season.
Of course, you may say, the Blogging Caesar controls this website and can simply refuse to update the numbers if
Bush is projected to win less than 201 EVs. This is true, yet I will commit to all of you that I will notify this
audience if Edict #7 is broken at any time between now and November 2.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45pm 06/18/04
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June 13, 2004
Rethink Iraq
US military action in Iraq has been a constant source of debate in this country since President Bush made the decision to topple Saddam Hussein.
It seems from some of the comments I've received on this site that many have concluded our presence there is a complete mistake. Daniel Drummond, a frequent
participant in this site's comment forums, has crafted a wonderful treatise explaining many of the reasons why Bush did the right thing in liberating that
country.
I would like for everyone who visits Election Projection to run on over to The Fourth Rail
and read it carefully (the links included provide vital information, so be sure not to miss them). And to those of you who pride yourselves on "having an open mind,"
I'd encourage you to put your mind where your mouth is. If a thorough reading of Drummond's piece doesn't at least give you cause to rethink Iraq, then you might as
well stop considering yourself "open-minded."
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:45pm 06/13/04
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June 12, 2004
Polling data update
It has been a while since the last polling data update. After a long period in which no polls were conducted, it seems a heap of polling
firms caught up at once. Over the last several days, a flood of polling data has been released. This week's
Election Projection is up and ready for your perusal.
American fatalities in Iraq have decreased; gas prices have come down, albeit slightly, as well. The economy is moving along nicely, and jobs
are being created. One would expect the President's numbers to have improved over the last two weeks, and one would be correct. Bush has closed the gap
on Kerry, but not as much as I had hoped. The current tally shows Kerry up by 94 electoral votes, 316-222, and by 5.1 percentage points, 51.6% - 46.5%.
That's a gain of 21 electoral votes for the President from the last update (he gains Arizona and Missouri this time around). Missouri is the only state to flip based on state polls.
Without them, it would have remained blue.
I'll preview an upcoming edict The Blogging Caesar will soon issue and tell you that you shouldn't expect
Bush's numbers to return to the depths of the previous projection. Bush has hit bottom and is beginning what will be a long, steady rise to invulnerability,
notwithstanding another news cycle like the recent prisoner abuse story.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. The last update, on May 26, 2004, was Mr Bush's worst
percentage deficit so far. That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:45am 06/12/04
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June 8, 2004
Housekeeping
I'm sure there are many of you who are wondering about things here at Election Projection.
I thought I'd take a moment to address
some of your concerns.
Polling data update
Polls are starting to trickle in now, so it won't be long until I update the projection. I've been extremely busy at work and at home, but the sense
I get from a cursory look at the polling data is that the numbers have moved very slightly in the President's favor from the current projection. We'll see if they
will move enough to even up the percentages soon.
Closed comments
I've received several emails asking why commenting is closed. I have a comment policy that does not allow profanity nor personal attacks on individuals or
groups. I am very serious about guarding the civility of this site. Sometimes, especially when I'm too busy to monitor comments for a couple of days,
contributors begin to violate these rules. Rather than spend time I don't have editing the offending comments, I choose to close commenting altogether.
I hope that eventually people will understand that meanness and profanity won't be tolerated, and I won't have to resort to shutting down the comment boards.
Don't worry, though, commenting will resume when I post the next polling data update.
Reader emails
Since going live with this website, I've tried to answer as many emails as I could. I greatly enjoy reading feedback from this site's visitors. However,
with its growing popularity, the volume of emails has become too large for me to be able to answer every one. Please know that I do read each and every email
I receive and do continue writing. If you don't get a response, I hope you'll understand that I can't take the time to answer them all.
State-by-state analysis
One of the most controversial features of my site has been the state-by-state analysis in which I predict a 449-89, 42-state
Bush victory. I've resisted making changes as long as the current circumstances provided a possibility of such a landslide. I know this section will
be linked to, cut and pasted on many a democratic website, but I must admit now that I no longer feel confident that Bush will win by such a large margin.
Don't think I'm conceding a Kerry presidency. Bush will still win convincingly, I believe. In the next week or so, look for a revised state-by-state
analysis.
Pro-Bush site, objective projection
Another subject that has been raised in more than one email is the decidedly pro-Bush lean of The Blogging Caesar. I have been very satisfied to read acknowledgement
from readers on the left that the projection is an unbiased measure of the current political climate. Some have requested, however, that I try to remove
any pro-Bush stances from the opinions I express in my posts. This I will not do. I am unashamedly and solidly supportive of President Bush. I will not mute that sentiment,
even as I provide an unbiased electoral outlook. By the way, I hope my liberal friends will still feel the same way about the objectivity of the projection once the
map becomes much redder!
I'm opening up a comment thread for this post only to allow reader response to it. Please limit responses to the subjects addressed in this list.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 06/08/04
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June 4, 2004
Jobs and simple math
I'm really happy for those who found jobs last month. All
248,000 of you. And the extra 75,000 that found jobs in March and
April that weren't previously recorded, I'm happy for you guys, too. In fact, I'm happy for the 1.42 million of you who have found jobs since last August.
One more thing, to those who've started or maintained small businesses of their own over the last 3 1/2 years and to the multitudes hired by such businesses, I'm waiting
with great anticipation for your companies to grow big enough to be counted in the employment figures as well.
All told, the economy has added 1.2 million reported jobs in 5 months so far this year. That's 240,000 per month. Michael, who's out
chasing the wind, makes a great observation.
He quotes John Kerry's master plan for creating jobs, does some clever computing with very simple math, and concludes that a vote for Kerry is a vote to slow down
current job growth. For a number cruncher like myself, that's the kind of illustrative calculating I love!
Update: For some reason, Michael's site seems to have gone down very shortly after I posted this entry. I'll go ahead and show you
what he included there. John Kerry claims on his website to have a
plan to create 10 million jobs during his first term. If you divide the 48 months that make up a four-year term
into 10 million, the result is 208,333 per month. That's 40,000 per month less than the economy has been creating since the first of this year.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45pm 06/04/04
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June 3, 2004
Polling drought
There haven't been any national polls released in the past week. I know polling land is getting parched and crusty.
Unfortunately, I can only analyze polling data; I cannot conduct polls. By early next week, I expect we'll see several new polls.
If we do, you can rest assured The Blogging Caesar will be here to quench your thirst with a new Election Projection update.
Update: Over the last two days, a lot of state polls have been released with some interesting numbers. National polls are
still scarce with only ARG publishing a new one. I have taken a look at the state polls and determined that the electoral vote totals
projected here would remain the same with those polls included. So, I'm going to continue to wait for some more national polls to be released
before updating.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:15am 06/03/04
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