| Archives |
|---|
June, 2009
May, 2009
April, 2009
March, 2009
November, 2008
October, 2008
September, 2008
August, 2008
June, 2008
May, 2008
April, 2008
March, 2008
February, 2008
January, 2008
December, 2007
November, 2007
October, 2007
September, 2007
July, 2007
June, 2007
May, 2007
April, 2007
March, 2007
February, 2007
January, 2007
November, 2006
October, 2006
September, 2006
August, 2006
July, 2006
June, 2006
May, 2006
April, 2006
March, 2006
February, 2006
January, 2006
December, 2005
November, 2005
August, 2005
July, 2005
June, 2005
May, 2005
April, 2005
March, 2005
February, 2005
January, 2005
November, 2004
October, 2004
September, 2004
August, 2004
July, 2004
June, 2004
May, 2004
April, 2004
March, 2004
February, 2004
January, 2004
December, 2003
|
|
| Politics and Elections - June, 2006 |
|---|
| Monday, June 26, 2006
|
|---|
| Vacation time
|
|---|
Mrs. Blogging Caesar and I are on vacation right now - the kids are visiting her parents. Posting will be light this
week. Golfing will be heavy.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:00am 06/26/06 ::
link |
| Wednesday, June 21, 2006
|
|---|
| Daily Poll Report
|
|---|
Rasmussen
Washington Senate:
Cantwell(D) 44%, McGavick(R) 40%
Quinnipiac
New York Governor:
Spitzer(D) 66%, Faso(R) 20%
Pennsylvania Senate:
Casey(D) 52%, Santorum(R) 34%
Strategic Vision
Michigan Senate:
Stabenow(D) 50%, Bouchard(R) 37%
Stabenow(D) 53%, Butler(R) 34%
Michigan Senate (primaries):
GOP: Bouchard(R) 41%, Butler(R) 36%
Michigan Governor:
DeVos(R) 48%, Granholm(D) 41%
New Jersey Senate:
Menendez(D) 38%, Kean(R) 36%
SurveyUSA
Alabama Governor:
Riley(R) 51%, Baxley(D) 40%
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:20am 06/21/06 ::
link |
| Monday, June 19, 2006
|
|---|
| Poll: Where do you stand on abortion?
|
|---|
The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. Last time we tackled the very contentious issue of same-sex
marriage. This week, lets grab another tiger by the tail and look at abortion. Being pro-life and pro-choice means different things to
different people. Where do you stand? Please participate in the poll located in the right sidebar.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:40pm 06/19/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Feeling a little better
|
|---|
The Blogging Caesar is slowly coming back. Man, this was one bad infection! Watch for lots of updates to Election
Projection in the coming days as I try to catch up on my election coverage. They'll be some race rating changes, and I have a boatload of primary
results to post from the last couple of weeks. Things here at EP should really start to heat up over the next 2 or 3 weeks, so make sure you stop
by frequently.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:35pm 06/19/06 ::
link |
| Wednesday, June 14, 2006
|
|---|
| Still here, still battling
|
|---|
The good news is I think this eye infection has hit bottom and might be starting to improve. The bad news is, judging from
Mrs Blogging Caesar's experience with it, I still have a week or so before I'll be feeling back to normal. I appreciate everyone's patience with
me as I recover. Very soon, The Blogging Caesar will be back and blogging up a storm.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:05pm 06/14/06 ::
link |
| Monday, June 12, 2006
|
|---|
| Still out of commission
|
|---|
Just an update on my eye situation. Unfortunately, it has taken a turn for the worse. The infection has spread to
my other eye. Mrs. Blogging Caesar went through the same thing earlier, so I'm pretty sure I have what she had. It has taken her about
3 weeks to get over it. That means I still have almost 2 weeks to go. Oh brother! Hopefully, it won't take two weeks for me to be up
to blogging again, but for now that is certainly not the case. I'll try to keep everyone updated periodically if indeed I'm not able to carry out
my normal posting and projecting. I would appreciate your prayers for a speedy recovery.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:55am 06/12/06 ::
link |
| Thursday, June 8, 2006
|
|---|
| Recovery time
|
|---|
| The Blogging Caesar has caught a nasty eye infection. It's affecting my whole body. So posting will be light until
I feel more like myself. I'll try to post my daily poll update tomorrow, but don't expect much beyond that. Also, we've run into some
problems with the comments again. I've disabled them temporarily while I figure out what to do.
In the meantime, here are some good sites to keep you informed...
New England Republican - thanks for the mention, guys.
Wizbang Politics - the fallout of former Polipundits landed squarely here, including my cuz, Lorie Byrd.
Right Wing News - John Hawkins has been gracious enough to link to me twice on his weekend reading list.
Viking Pundit - My favorite western Massachusetts conservative, Eric Lindholm, always has good stuff to read.
Frank Williams - A solid conservative blogger I met at the Civitas Conservative Leadership Conference in April.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 06/08/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| A victory in Iraq - al-Zarqawi is dead
|
|---|
The number one terrorist in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
was killed today by U.S.
planes. It is a good day for Iraq and for America, but the task is not done.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45am 06/08/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Daily Poll Report
|
|---|
Rasmussen
Colorado Governor:
Ritter(D) 43%, Beauprez(R) 38%
Ritter(D) 47%, Holtzman(R) 33%
Quinnipiac
Connecticut Senate:
Lieberman(D) 68%, Schlesinger(R) 14%
Lamont(D) 37%, Schlesinger(R) 20%
Connecticut Governor:
Rell(R) 64%, DeStefano(D) 24%
Rell(R) 65%, Malloy(D) 22%
Connecticut Senate (primaries):
DEM: Lieberman(D) 55%, Lamont(D) 40% (LV)
Connecticut Governor (primaries):
DEM: DeStefano(D) 46%, Malloy(D) 35% (LV)
Strategic Vision
Wisconsin Senate:
Kohl(D) 58%, Michels(R) 38%
Kohl(D) 65%, Lorge(R) 25%
Kohl(D) 67%, Redick(R) 18%
Wisconsin Governor:
Green(R) 46%, Doyle(D) 45%
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:50am 06/08/06 ::
link |
| Wednesday, June 7, 2006
|
|---|
| More thoughts on California CD-50
|
|---|
| All over the internet today, and certainly in the comment threads on this website, everyone is in a tizzy about what yesterday's
special election in California CD-50 means to the political climate and what it portends for the general election nationwide in November. Are we
now heading for a Democratic tidal wave? Or maybe last night demonstrates how the GOP is in much better shape than political naysayers would have
us believe.
As I said before, this election was a wash. Neither side can, nor should they try to, claim any real momentum or advantage in light of
Bilbray's almost 4-point victory over Busby. Let's take a look at what both sides are saying and try to apply some objectivity to the
situation.
Here are the facts as I see them...
The GOP spent gobs of money in a district that favors Republicans - and won by only 4%.
The most recent incumbent of this seat is a convicted criminal - and the incumbent party still held the seat.
A conservative candidate, William Griffith, caused the margin of victory to be smaller than it would have otherwise been. How much smaller is
not a matter of fact; it is a matter of conjecture. The impact is somewhere between 0% and 3.67%, inconclusive.
The incumbent party's margin of victory shrank from 22% in 2004 to only 4% in 2006.
The Democratic candidate made some unfortunate comments in the week prior to the election that may or may not have affected the margin.
The Democratic candidate gained the same percentage of the vote as she did in the primary and could not improve on the average of recent Democratic
presidential hopefuls in the district.
Now let me do my best to expound on these facts with objective eyes. If you have ever seen "The Princess Bride," you'll notice a similarity
between this discussion and the "dizzying intellect" the Sicilian demonstrated as he reasoned which glass of wine contained the poison. He
repeatedly explained why he couldn't choose this glass and then why he couldn't choose that glass in an ever-expanding cloud of logic. The
rationales for both a GOP "moral victory" and a Democratic "moral victory" in this race behave much the same way. Here we go...
Clearly the Democrats won the moral victory since they trimmed the margin of victory from 22% to 4%, but clearly the Democrats can't claim the moral
victory because they nevertheless lost the race even though the GOP incumbent is in jail. On the other hand, clearly the GOP can claim a moral victory
since they won this race even though a conservative pulled a good piece of their guy's vote away from him, yet clearly there is no advantage there since
it cost the GOP $5 million to do it. Clearly there is no real advantage for the Democrats since Busby did practically no better than Kerry and
Gore did, but clearly in a district that Bush won by 11% a 4-point margin is encouraging. And on and on...
Cutting through the rhetoric and spin, I think the appropriate conclusion is this: the incumbent party won this race by a slightly smaller
margin than one would expect - if we factor in the votes for Griffith - for an open seat in a district with a GOP lean. Despite all the
permutations of possibilities that could have resulted here yesterday, the big winner was the status-quo - with perhaps a slight Democratic lean.
If there is any spin to be put on this race, then, it is that since the GOP already holds the majorities in both Houses of Congress, the status-quo is
a better deal for Republicans than for Democrats.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:45pm 06/07/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Bilbray by 4 or so
|
|---|
| Disaster averted, Republican Brian Bilbray looks to have beaten back a stiff challenge from Democrat Francine Busby. With
about 90% of precincts reporting, Bilbray holds a 49.5% - 45.2% lead over Busby. My prediction of a 7-point triumph was a bit inflated, but if I
claim a 3% margin of error, it doesn't look too bad.
This result is a wash. The GOP avoided the razor close victory (or nightmarish loss) that would've given Democrats reason to crow about November.
On the other hand, the margin was certainly not large enough to bolster the Republicans' outlook either. As I said in my
last post, Bilbray needed to win by 4 or more for me to feel OK about this race. He did, barely, and so I do.
A Democratic tsunami may develop sometime between now and November, but based on California's special election yesterday, it hasn't formed yet.
Other significant results from last night (as of 6:55am this morning)...
California gubernatorial primary:
Angelides(D) 47.6%, Westly(D) 43.7%
Alabama gubernatorial primary:
GOPer Riley beats Moore 63.9% - 36.1%
Democrat Baxley defeats Siegelman 60.4% - 35.7%
Montana Senate primary:
Burns will easily; Tester clobbers Morrison 61% - 36% (53% reporting)
Iowa gubernatorial primary:
Culver(D) 38.8%, Blouin(D) 34.0%, Fallon(D) 25.9%
Update: David Wissing at The Hedgehog Report makes an interesting observation:
| I say the Republicans "won" the night, less to do with the fact that Bilbray actually won
(which is the most important thing in the end), but because they avoided what would have been wall-to-wall coverage from the media if Busby had
won last night. Instead, the story will be buried on Page A24 and not even mentioned on the TV news. That alone means the GOP "won the night"
yesterday.
|
Democrats are going to claim a "moral victory" in this race. Regardless of the margin, keeping the mainstream media from trumpeting a GOP defeat
gives the GOP a "moral victory" of their own.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:55am 06/07/06 ::
link |
| Tuesday, June 6, 2006
|
|---|
| Bilbray by 7
|
|---|
| In today's blockbuster special election taking place in California's CD-50, The Blogging Caesar predicts Brian Bilbray will
emerge victorious over Francine Busby. Here is my take on the final vote.
Bilbray 51%, Busby 44%, Others 5%
Many people are calling this race a critical indication of things to come. I happen to agree. In this GOP-leaning district, Bilbray MUST
win. A loss will be a very, very bad omen heading toward November. Even if Bilbray wins, the outlook is not necessarily sunny for
Republicans. In my estimation, anything less than a solid 4-point victory will not be a good sign. A 4-8 point win will give me confidence
that the GOP will indeed hold both houses in November. Anything more than 8 points will mean the majorities are secure and serve to demonstrate
the conservative position on illegal immigration is the ticket to brighter and redder GOP days ahead.
Update (11:55pm): There may be some confusion about the returns coming in on the California SOS website. What I understand is that
the results listed here are CD-50's primary results. These results will determine
who is on the ballot in November's general election. They do not represent the special election being held between Bilbray and Busby. The
California SOS site has this link for returns from that race.
It is currently not found (404 error). It will probably be up sometime overnight.
Update2 (12:15am): The special election returns page is up...no results yet, though.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:15pm 06/06/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Daily Poll Report
|
|---|
SurveyUSA
California Governor (primaries):
DEM: Angelides(D) 44%, Westly(D) 36%
Alabama Governor (primaries):
GOP: Riley(R) 64%, Moore(R) 33%
DEM: Baxley(D) 46%, Siegelman(D) 41%
Maine Governor (primaries):
GOP: Emery(R) 31%, Woodcock(R) 29%, Mills(R) 27%
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00am 06/06/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Super Tuesday 2006, part one
|
|---|
Today marks the second biggest primary day of 2006. Only September 12 boasts more primaries than today. In addition
to the primary races going on, a major special election is being held in California's House district 50. Check back here later for links to all
the results. And I'll be up early tomorrow morning to post the ramifications of the outcome of CA CD-50.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:20am 06/06/06 ::
link |
| Monday, June 5, 2006
|
|---|
| Poll: Where do you stand on the marriage amendment?
|
|---|
| The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up. With Congress taking up the issue of a constitutional
amendment to define marriage as between one man and one woman only, it seems appropriate to find out how Election Projection readers feel about that.
Please participate in this week's poll and then post your thoughts on the matter here.
Update: I should've known opening up a comment thread on such a divisive subject was not a good idea. Most of the comments have
been OK, but several have not. I regret publishing this post and hope that my readers will not continue the discussion of homosexuality and
marriage on other threads.
One more thing, I hold a deep and abiding respect for the Bible. I believe it is the inspired Word of God.
So, belittling its significance and undermining its truths by saying such things as "it has been translated many times over the years and the meaning
has changed" is just something I cannot endure. No other book in human history has been so extensively documented, substantiated and carefully
guarded to maintain absolute correctness and truth as the Holy Bible. I can stand by as my political opponents share their positions on the issues
of the day, but having the Bible trashed and completely misconstrued is not something I will be a party to on this website.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:00am 06/05/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Daily Poll Report
|
|---|
The Field Poll
California Senate:
Feinstein(D) 54%, Mountjoy(R) 28%
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:35am 06/05/06 ::
link |
| Thursday, June 1, 2006
|
|---|
| Daily Poll Report
|
|---|
I'm guessing that due to the Memorial Day holiday, polling firms are taking some time off. As a result, I can't find any polls to report.
Feel free to post links in this comment thread to any poll you might find today. I'll be sure to publish it in tomorrow's polling report.
posted by Scott Elliott at 3:20pm 06/01/06 ::
link |
|
|---|
| Michael Moore sued for $85 million...
|
|---|
| ...by an "anti-war" Iraqi veteran who lost both arms in a helicopter explosion. Turns out that the man, Sgt. Peter
Damon, is not anti-war at all. When someone is determined
to promote an certain agenda, taking situations, quotes, or gestures out of context is a very effective way to make a lie seem true. Moore is a
master at this type of deception. I hope it costs him this time.
Hat tip: David Wissing
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20am 06/01/06 ::
link |
|
|
|
|
