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Projecting the upcoming elections and commenting on things along the way... |
Election Projection
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Edicts and Commentary
July 28, 2004 Polling data update This is the last pre-season Election Projection.
With the start of the Democratic National Convention, the regular season has begun. The final preliminary
count shows a close race. During the last week, we've seen a noticeable, and expected, decline in the
Edwards bounce. Kerry gives back Florida and Nevada this week and Ohio, too, thanks to state polls.
But he does retain Missouri as a result of state polls.
To the numbers: John Kerry opens the season with a slight lead. He gets 275 electoral votes to
Bush's 263. His popular vote lead is 2.2%, 50.2%-48.0%. I am waiting with great
anticipation to see how much the Kerry advantage will swell in the coming week following the Democratic lovefest
currently going on in Boston. If there is a chance this year that The Blogging Caesar's
Edict 7 is proven wrong, it will be with the next projection.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst
percentage deficit so far. That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:15am 07/28/04 Link to this post |
Next update coming soon I apologize for not getting the update done this weekend - too many other things on tap. I will be posting it very soon. I hope to upload it tomorrow..er..later today. Since I believe my readers will be interested in seeing what kind of bounce Kerry gets from the DNC, I'm only going to include polls that were conducted on or before Sunday, July 25. posted by Scott Elliott at 1:25am 07/27/04 Link to this post |
State-by-state analysis I've posted my up-to-date predictions for the upcoming presidential election. They aren't as rosy for President Bush as the original ones I made back in December of last year. However, The Blogging Caesar still sees a very nice victory for the incumbent. posted by Scott Elliott at 5:15pm 07/25/04 Link to this post |
My top twenty blogs John Hawkins at Right Wing News periodically
posts a list of his top forty favorite blogs. Unfortunately and incomprehensibly, The Blogging Caesar has yet to make the
list. This time he adds a
suggestion that other bloggers post lists of their own. I think that's a great idea, and so here's mine.
Instead of listing them from the bottom, like he does, I'm going to start it off with my number one:
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:00am 07/22/04 Link to this post |
the fourth rail I've plugged Bill Roggio's excellent blog before. Looking at his traffic, I feel I need to do more. He provides some of the most well-reasoned, skillful and insightful expositions that I've found anywhere on the web. The man is a true talent. I'm so glad he's on my side. I've added a prominent link to his site at the top of this page. I hope you will make him a daily stop in your internet experience, especially those of you who are currently teetering on the political fence. Mr. Roggio just might provide the nudge you need to make the right choice. Keep it going, Bill! posted by Scott Elliott at 12:45am 07/20/04 Link to this post |
Polling data update The Edwards bounce is still with us. John Kerry's lead in this week's
Election Projection has increased. He is maintaining a small but solid
margin over the President in head-to-head polling, and Mr. Bush's job approval is still stuck in the high 40's.
State polls have no effect on the electoral votes, which stand at 327-211 in Kerry's favor. The
liberal senator from Massachusetts can credit Ohio, Missouri, and Nevada for his expanding electoral vote
advantage. They have changed colors since the last update. Kerry is faring quite well in the popular
votes as well these days, sporting a 4.8% lead (51.5% - 46.7%).
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst
percentage deficit so far. That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:30am 07/19/04 Link to this post |
Polling data update There are two opposing forces clearly at work in the presidential race right now.
This week's Election Projection shows that they are mostly cancelling out each
other. On the one hand, Kerry has chosen his running mate, and the resulting bounce has pushed him out to
a 3.9% advantage against President Bush in head-to-head polling. Last week, Kerry was behind Bush by 1.8%
head-to-head. If you're looking for an actual number to quantify the "Edwards bounce," The Blogging Caesar
comes through for you. Kerry has realized a 5.7% improvement against Bush in the polls in the few days
following his VP announcement.
On the other hand, the electorate is beginning to view both Bush's job performance and the country's overall
direction in a better light. People are slowly becoming more positive about things. As a result,
Bush's job approval has climbed to 48.2%, 1.2% better than last week, and the right track numbers are 8.3%
better. While these numbers are a definite improvement for Bush, they are still negative, and they aren't
enough to completely overcome Kerry's VP bounce. Kerry has increased his popular vote lead by a couple
of points (50.9% - 47.2%), while the electoral vote count is stuck at 291-247 in favor of the challenger.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst
percentage deficit so far. That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:45pm 07/11/04 Link to this post |
Fiddlesticks! John Kerry has selected the worst possible person to complete the Democratic ticket.
Yep, John Edwards will do more for Kerry's chances than anyone else he might have picked. That is not
good news for me because it means the GOP will have to work a little harder than they otherwise would have to secure
a second term for President Bush. Back in January, I expressed my concern about the
potential I saw in Senator
Edwards. His selection as Kerry's running mate only serves to solidify my worries. Even so, I must
say I was surprised by the pick. I figured Kerry would be more concerned about being the top dog on the
ticket than winning the election. He certainly proved me wrong. Edwards will be very effective,
especially in the South. I salute Mr. Kerry for picking the best person for the job.
In all honestly, a Kerry/Edwards ticket is looking pretty formidable. We're in for an exciting run up
to election night. I was hoping for a yawner, a 1984-style landslide, but, alas, I'm afraid I'll be disappointed.
If you click on my State-by-state Analysis link, you'll see it is
being updated. The choice Kerry made has compelled me to remove my previous predictions.
I'll try to post an up-to-date rundown soon. Hey, there is a silver lining, though. With the
contest in doubt, more people will be flocking to sites like mine!
Update: I've taken more flack from this post than just about any other. So much so that I
feel I need to clarify my position on the John/John ticket. I do understand that VP selections don't
normally win or lose presidential elections and that voters pull the lever for the guy who is on the top of the
ticket, not the bottom. My point here is simply that Kerry has chosen the guy, in my humble opinion, who
will help him more than any other pick would have. Some have argued with good reason that Gephardt's ties
to labor and his Missouri background would help Kerry. Some have also rightly stated that Edwards is a
liberal through and through. I just think Edwards' suave charisma and good looks, coupled with his ability to
look moderate even while acting as liberal as they come, will give Kerry's campaign a boost. Yes, I know,
it'll be a small boost, but even a 1% boost is 1% that Team Bush must overcome.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:40pm 07/07/04 Link to this post |
The greatest country on earth The United States of America. There's a ring to those words that gives me goose
bumps. I am so honored to be a part of this wonderful country, to be just a speck in the grand mosaic of
our country's amazing history. The USA has done more for freedom, prosperity, and equality than any
country since the dawn of time. Our democracy is the model for rest of the world. Through our
leadership, the world has confronted and defeated the scourge of Hitler, Hirohito, and Lenin. Through our
economic strength, even our poor would be considered rich in many places around this world. Through our
faith, we've shown an unbending commitment to aiding those less fortunate around us. In foreign lands, we've sent
supplies and manpower to disaster-stricken countries literally hundreds of time through the years. At home,
the generosity of Americans to charitable causes knows no equal. No other country can begin to compare
with the humanitarian legacy that is ours.
I know that we are not perfect. Many in other countries see us as the bad guys, even as we sweat and
sacrifice and die to bring them food, clean water, shelter, and medical care. Indeed, some in
this country would point only to our weaknesses and our shortcomings. Their criticism and distaste serves
to highlight this nation's greatness. Only a magnificent country such as ours could stand up under the
constant, burdensome weight of negativity and moral decay which we face today. But we must stem the tide,
for even the mighty can fall.
Make no mistake; our country's greatness is borne out of our Christian heritage and the enormous blessings
God bestowed upon us as a result. The tenets of the Holy Scriptures, in days gone by, were the principles
that guided us, that undergirded us. Honesty, perseverance, self-control, responsibility, virtuousness -
these are the traits that defined us. Even those who shunned Christianity as a religion were greatly
influenced and benefitted by these Christian morals and values. We as a people are now rejecting this
heritage, and we are suffering. God will withdraw His blessing on our beloved nation if we stay this
course.
Yet, I believe it is not too late. We who are called to His purpose are the key. We cannot
blame those who would desecrate God's laws, for we have given them the power to do so through our apathy,
through our complacency. We have allowed ourselves to be deceived and brain-washed into
thinking that we should not stand up for that which we believe in the public arena. It is not the
activists' fault, nor is it the media's, that the Christian God is being banished from the realm of public
thought in which He once held such a prominent place. My prayer and my plea is for Christians all over
this land to search their hearts and search the scriptures. It is our God-given right to vote, to teach,
to debate, and, yes, to legislate what we believe is right. Our philosophical and political opponents do
nothing less. This country was founded on the character of Christianity, without which it will not long
survive. If Christians and like-minded non-Christians will wake up and take up our oars and row, this
ship called democracy will take us where we need to go, and The United States of America will continue to be
the greatest country on earth.
Happy birthday, USA!
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50pm 07/04/04 Link to this post |
Back and forth they go. Where they'll stop, nobody knows. Not much activity on the polling front
this week, but when we're dealing with a race this tight, just one poll can make all the difference. Such was the case
the last two weeks, and this week's Election Projection is no different. Two weeks ago,
a Los Angeles Times poll kept President Bush from claiming the projection lead. Last week, a poll from
Fox News pushed him over the top. This week, a new poll from CBS and The New York Times gives the
advantage back to Senator Kerry. The current electoral vote count favors Kerry 291-247.
He has gained Florida this week, and that change makes the difference. Projected popular vote percentages
also favor the challenger, 49.6% - 48.6%.
As for state polls, Ohio steps in to provide the lone "switcher" this week. That pivotal state is in the
Really Close Bush category because of a couple of state polls showing Bush in the lead there.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst
percentage deficit so far. That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:15pm 07/04/04
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