To the numbers:  John Kerry opens the season with a slight lead.  He gets 275 electoral votes to Bush's 263.  His popular vote lead is 2.2%, 50.2%-48.0%.  I am waiting with great anticipation to see how much the Kerry advantage will swell in the coming week following the Democratic lovefest currently going on in Boston.  If there is a chance this year that The Blogging Caesar's Edict 7 is proven wrong, it will be with the next projection.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

On the other hand, the electorate is beginning to view both Bush's job performance and the country's overall direction in a better light.  People are slowly becoming more positive about things.  As a result, Bush's job approval has climbed to 48.2%, 1.2% better than last week, and the right track numbers are 8.3% better.  While these numbers are a definite improvement for Bush, they are still negative, and they aren't enough to completely overcome Kerry's VP bounce.  Kerry has increased his popular vote lead by a couple of points (50.9% - 47.2%), while the electoral vote count is stuck at 291-247 in favor of the challenger.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

In all honestly, a Kerry/Edwards ticket is looking pretty formidable.  We're in for an exciting run up to election night.  I was hoping for a yawner, a 1984-style landslide, but, alas, I'm afraid I'll be disappointed.  If you click on my State-by-state Analysis link, you'll see it is being updated.  The choice Kerry made has compelled me to remove my previous predictions.  I'll try to post an up-to-date rundown soon.  Hey, there is a silver lining, though.  With the contest in doubt, more people will be flocking to sites like mine!

Update:  I've taken more flack from this post than just about any other.  So much so that I feel I need to clarify my position on the John/John ticket.  I do understand that VP selections don't normally win or lose presidential elections and that voters pull the lever for the guy who is on the top of the ticket, not the bottom.  My point here is simply that Kerry has chosen the guy, in my humble opinion, who will help him more than any other pick would have.  Some have argued with good reason that Gephardt's ties to labor and his Missouri background would help Kerry.   Some have also rightly stated that Edwards is a liberal through and through.  I just think Edwards' suave charisma and good looks, coupled with his ability to look moderate even while acting as liberal as they come, will give Kerry's campaign a boost.  Yes, I know, it'll be a small boost, but even a 1% boost is 1% that Team Bush must overcome.

I know that we are not perfect. Many in other countries see us as the bad guys, even as we sweat and sacrifice and die to bring them food, clean water, shelter, and medical care. Indeed, some in this country would point only to our weaknesses and our shortcomings. Their criticism and distaste serves to highlight this nation's greatness.  Only a magnificent country such as ours could stand up under the constant, burdensome weight of negativity and moral decay which we face today.  But we must stem the tide, for even the mighty can fall.

Make no mistake; our country's greatness is borne out of our Christian heritage and the enormous blessings God bestowed upon us as a result.  The tenets of the Holy Scriptures, in days gone by, were the principles that guided us, that undergirded us.  Honesty, perseverance, self-control, responsibility, virtuousness - these are the traits that defined us.  Even those who shunned Christianity as a religion were greatly influenced and benefitted by these Christian morals and values.  We as a people are now rejecting this heritage, and we are suffering.  God will withdraw His blessing on our beloved nation if we stay this course.

Yet, I believe it is not too late.  We who are called to His purpose are the key.  We cannot blame those who would desecrate God's laws, for we have given them the power to do so through our apathy, through our complacency.  We have allowed ourselves to be deceived and brain-washed into thinking that we should not stand up for that which we believe in the public arena.  It is not the activists' fault, nor is it the media's, that the Christian God is being banished from the realm of public thought in which He once held such a prominent place. My prayer and my plea is for Christians all over this land to search their hearts and search the scriptures.  It is our God-given right to vote, to teach, to debate, and, yes, to legislate what we believe is right. Our philosophical and political opponents do nothing less. This country was founded on the character of Christianity, without which it will not long survive.  If Christians and like-minded non-Christians will wake up and take up our oars and row, this ship called democracy will take us where we need to go, and The United States of America will continue to be the greatest country on earth.

Happy birthday, USA!

As for state polls, Ohio steps in to provide the lone "switcher" this week.  That pivotal state is in the Really Close Bush category because of a couple of state polls showing Bush in the lead there.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003..  May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.