McCain's VP Choice:  Reports are coming out that neither Mitt Romney nor Tim Pawlenty will be the pick.  Speculation runs high right now that it will be Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  The announcement should come shortly.

Democratic National Convention:  The pep rallies are over, the festivities are done, and the nominee has spoken.  Unlike some folks who criticize the way the Democrats conducted the convention, I felt it was effective, setting reasonable goals and meeting them.  A Democratic friend I work with said that each day they had a message and each day they conveyed that message loud and clear.  I think he's right.

Last night it ended with Obama's acceptance speech.  Like the one he gave four years earlier on the same stage, this one was electrifying.  Unlike in 2004, Obama is no longer an unknown.  So, will this speech have the same impact?  Chances are, it won't.  But it should help him ease tension about his readiness for the top job.  How effective the GOP can be in re-raising that tension in the coming weeks will in large part determine how serious John McCain can threatened the frontrunner's chances to win the White House.

Once thing I will say about the Democratic National Convention: After last night's speech, this conservative is glad it's over.  Now, on to Minneapolis to see if the GOP can recover from the bashing it took in Denver - especially over the last two days.

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Second, according to the CNN/Time poll, Obama is way out in front in New Mexico (53% - 40%), a state George Bush won in 2004 by a narrow margin.  In the major tracking polls, Obama has rebounded some in the Gallup poll to take the lead by a single point, but McCain is holding strong with a one-point lead of his own according to Rasmussen.

Alaska:  In an outcome that defies logic, Alaska Republicans have nominated an indicted senator and are on the verge of nominating an embattled, weakened congressman.  I don't know why they would so freely hand the Democrats these two seats, but it appears that just what they've decided to do.  Senator Ted Stevens and Congressman Don Young (if his 152-vote lead stands after all absentee votes have been counted) will now proceed to the general election where I fully expect both to be soundly defeated.  grrr...go figure.

Democratic National Convention:  Bill Clinton spoke at the convention last night.  I will control the urge to rip into his speech in this space and opt instead to address its intent and impact, as I see it, on the campaign - though I must say it was painful for me to endure!  (heh heh)  Seriously, the former president showed once again why he was such a brilliant car salesman politician.

During the speech, he accomplished two major objectives.  He showed up convincingly in favor of the one who bested his wife in the primaries - how sincere that was only he knows - and he laid out the case that Obama is ready to lead and that a McCain presidency would just be another term for Bush.  In touching on these latter two points, Clinton outlined what should be the main focus of Obama's campaign in the remaining two months before Election Day.  Overall, I felt Clinton did an adequate job; he said what he came to say.  But I don't think the speech knocked anyone's socks off - certainly not mine.

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Senate:  A Public Policy poll out yesterday puts another GOP senator in an unenviable position.  North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole is three points behind her Democratic opponent, Kay Hagan, according to the poll.  The fact that Dole only received 39% in the poll is cause for further alarm.  Granted, Public Policy is a Democratic firm, but to show this poorly in any poll is unsettling at best for the incumbent.

Democratic National Convention:  I was unable to watch the proceedings last night in Denver.  However, I've heard the Democrats took a more aggressive and combative stance against McCain.  So they should have.  You can't win the White House without some measure of criticizing your opponent.  It may be unfortunate, but it is reality.  So, I don't fault my Democratic friends for taking shots at my guy.  Next week, the Republicans will no doubt hit Obama a few times. 

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Democratic National Convention:  Last night, Michelle Obama spoke to the convention and the nation.  Her speech was very well delivered, passionate but not weepy, family oriented but not too familiar, strategic but not too political.  I thought she could not have done better in terms of portraying the humanity of the Obama/Robinson family.  (If there is another couple more gifted in 'speechifying' than Barack and Michelle Obama, they don't come directly to mind.)  The major drawback I took away from the speech was the same bucket of unsubstantive platitudes about 'hope' and 'change' spoken of time and time again by her husband.  This race is tight right now because folks don't hear many meaty ideas among the sugary calls for change.  What they've heard from Barack may tickle their tastebuds, but it leaves them unsated.  Last night, in a wonderfully endearing and eloquent way, Michelle did much the same.  You can see the convention schedule for today here.

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Please click here to find out more.  That link will take you to a login page.  Once there, scroll down to read about all the benefits of a "Name Your Price" subscription.  This week I am giving a free preview of everything Election Projection has to offer.  Just type "guest" in the username and password fields at the login screen.  And please considering helping by signing up.

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Democratic National Convention:  I don't know how much of the convention I'll be able to watch this week, but I plan to at least provide some commentary each day on what transpires.  You can see the schedule for today here.

Election Projection Premium Content:  Next week I will begin another edition of Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program.  In 2006, over 1270 folks signed up by contributing what they could to help keep Election Projection running.  This year, I'm asking my readers to do the same.  In return, you'll get a wealth of information on races in all 50 states - some of which you can only find here.

Please click here to find out more.  That link will take you to a login page.  Once there, scroll down to read about all the benefits of a "Name Your Price" subscription.  This week I am giving a free preview of everything Election Projection has to offer.  Just type "guest" in the username and password fields at the login screen.  And please considering helping by signing up.

By the way, if you don't want to sign up, you can still enjoy Election Projection's daily poll reports and commentary, weekly updates and the extensive tables, maps and charts on the free side.  Either way, I hope Election Projection will continue to be a daily stop for you on the internet as we get closer to Election Day.  And, yes, you really can "Name Your Price".  Thank you so much for your support!

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My next update will be Monday, the first day of festivities at the Democratic National Convention in Denver.  Obama has reportedly chosen his running mate and is supposed to appear with him or her on Saturday.  If I had to venture a guess who it will be, I'd say Hillary.  He probably views picking her as the best way to solidify his base and bolster his appeal to women (though he may settle on Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius as a less-polarizing substitute for the former first lady).  His most strategic pick, in my view, would be Senator Evan Bahy of Indiana.

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Yes, McCain has bested Barack Obama in today's Election Projection - something I honestly did not expect to happen at any time during this election season - but only time will tell if this is a temporary uptick or a sustainable trend.  I am still not convinced McCain can actually win the presidency, yet he has exceeded my expectations from a polling standpoint time after time since becoming the presumed GOP nominee.

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One area which McCain may be able to utilize to gain an advantage is the "risk factor."  A poll out by Pew (see Election News on the right sidebar of the main page for a link) indicates that 57% of respondents view Obama as risky option for president.  Granted, 54% see McCain the same way, but those who view Obama as "very risky" outnumber those who view McCain likewise by a 3 to 2 margin.  It may do McCain well to push this idea in the campaign.

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Earlier this year, Barack Obama flung open the doors of voter participation and harnessed great masses of new voters on his way to an upset victory in the Democratic primaries.  His eloquent speaking style and charisma have captivated many a Democrat with visions of John F. Kennedy and a Democratic landslide in November.

Meanwhile, John McCain's path to the GOP nomination, while perhaps not as flashy, was just as remarkable.  Late last year, McCain's candidacy was all but dead, floundering behind no less than 4 other Republicans in the polls.  Nevertheless he plodded on as, one after another, GOP frontrunners rose and fell around him.  Now, the septuagenarian former prisoner of war stands at the helm of his party, within one fateful election day from the White House he has sought for so long.

But that may be as close as John McCain will get.  Poll after poll seems to indicate that Barack Obama is the man to beat.  However, given Obama's rock star status in a time of pessimistic economic sentiment and President Bush's dismal approval numbers, McCain is performing surprisingly well.  That we have a race at all is newsworthy.  History suggests that any opposing party candidate could reasonably expect to win easily given our current political and economic climate.  Yet, McCain remains within striking distance.  On the other hand, remain a close second long enough and you'll invariably lose, and the prospects of McCain eclipsing Obama on November 4 are doubtful at best.  A look at the Electoral College will illustrate why.

In 2004, George W. Bush won 286 electoral votes to John Kerry's 252.  Obviously, if McCain were to win all the states Bush won, McCain would be our next president.  That's a tall order.  Analysis of the battleground states this cycle reveals good news for Obama.  In Election Projection's August 5 update, New Mexico and Iowa are projected to go to Obama by comfortable 5.3% and 7.4% margins, respectively.  Nevada is in Obama's column by 2.4%.  These three states own 17 electoral votes and represent all of Bush's 2004 advantage.  (Take 17 from Bush's total and add it to Kerry's, and you have a 269-269 tie.)

But the climb for McCain doesn't end there.  Four states are currently within one point - Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Florida.  Notice a pattern there?  Yep, that's right, Bush won all those states in 2004.  By contrast, the blue states with the closest projected margins are New Hampshire (4.0%) and Michigan (4.5%), and every other blue state is projected for Obama by at least 8%.  In other words, the numbers will have to move significantly in McCain's favor for him to legitimately contest any Kerry state at all.  So, barring such a seismic shift, he will have to win all four of the big tossup states I listed - and Nevada, to boot - to win the presidency outright.  As it stands right now then, the election is an all or nothing proposition for McCain - win Virginia, Colorado, Florida and Ohio, or say hello to President Barack Obama.

It is not impossible that McCain could do just that.  The energy crisis plays very well for him and the rest of the GOP, and Obama's luster may be waning somewhat of late.  Looking at November 4 from my vantage point today, though, I'd still give Mr. Obama a decided edge.