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  Politics and Elections - August, 2005
Friday, August 19, 2005
Going on assignment...so to speak
This will be my last post for a while.  Some of you may know that I've started writing a book on a Christian's responsibilities in the political process.  Unfortunately, the focus needed for that task is making it difficult to blog and write at the same time - some people can do it, but, as a first-time writer, I'm finding it hard.  So, I've decided to stop blogging for a while.  Check back in November.  I hope to open up the election season then if I'm able.  Whether or not I am, I will at least update my status then.

I wish you all the best and offer my thanks for your loyal readership.

Update:  I've turned commenting off as well.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30am 08/19/05 ::


Wednesday, August 17, 2005
Go, Betsy, Go!
I know I just posted a link to Betsy's Page on Monday, but she's been really smokin' lately.  There are at least 4 or 5 great posts to check out from Tuesday.  You need to go over there and just keep readin' and scrollin', readin' and scrollin'.

posted by Scott Elliott at 2:00am 08/17/05 ::
Iraq war exposes Bush and the GOP
Soon after the operation to topple Saddam began, even as they bemoaned the pending military catastrophe there, extremists on the left accused President Bush of creating a war for political gain.  They derided him for sending our men and women into harm's way to sweeten his re-election prospects.  At the time, I thought this allegation was ludicrous; anyone should have been able to see the political risk he was taking.  Indeed, the President put his very political life at stake by engaging war in the Middle East.

The war, in fact, almost cost Mr. Bush the election last year.  Had he chosen a different course, so much of the anti-Bush sentiment that screamed so loudly during the campaign would have been, at least in part, muzzled.  Imagine if he had decided not to go into Iraq.  Imagine if the establishment of democracy in Afghanistan and the pursuit of Osama bin Ladin had dominated the headlines in the months prior to the election.  I believe the country's attitude toward the President would have been significantly more positive on election day.  Subtract the couple hundred billion dollars we've spent in Iraq from a much-publicized federal deficit and bring back the more than 1800 Americans lost, and you have the makings of a landslide.  Without the political baggage Iraq became for the President, only the most radical could have found serious fault in his administration of the War on Terror.  Sure, his political opponents would have found something to gripe about, but their influence on a vast majority of voters would have been minimal.

Yet a War on Terror that didn't include taking out Saddam might well have included a major terrorist attack on us or our allies facilitated by the dictator's evil regime.  None would deny he had the will and desire to bring such destruction on us.  Few would deny, if given enough time and enough insulation from international scrutiny, that he would have sought that capability.  Now we'll never know - thankfully.  That inability to know what would have happened, however, highlights a potential disaster for Mr. Bush's presidential legacy and, by association, GOP candidates in 2006 and 2008.

Another terrorist attack on America on the scale of September 11, 2001 would open the President up to cries of gross mismanagement - even negligence - with regard to America's pursuit of her terrorist enemies.  In the event of another attack, some would criticize the President for failing to keep us safe - even without our involvement in Iraq - but given all the resources and manpower we've committed to the struggle there, that criticism would surely resound with a much larger slice of the electorate.

Indeed, defending the war in Iraq will certainly become much more difficult if a major terrorist attack is carried out here in the near future.  Who knows if the "rally-around-the-flag" effect would be swept away amid the perception that Bush dropped the ball and enabled what could have been prevented?  In terms of Bush's legacy, history may then view him as the man who severely undermined the security of America during a time when we critically needed to be secure.  And GOP candidates all over might be subject to the wrath of furious and grieving voters adamantly demanding a change in direction.

Truth be told, whether we are attacked again or not, we will never know for sure what the Iraq war enabled and what it prevented.  It is entirely possible that by fighting so many of the enemy in Iraq - augmenting our continuing global pursuit of terrorists everywhere - that we have actually hindered the terrorists' ability to launch a grand-scale attack against us.  On the other hand, it is also possible that our involvement there has aided the terrorists in their quest to inflict their horror upon us - though I must admit I can't fathom how.  Finally, the possibility exists that we've neither increased nor decreased the likelihood of an attack by taking on Saddam and the terrorists in Iraq.

Looking ahead to the next 3 years or so, we will either be attacked or we won't.  If we aren't attacked, some in Bush's camp may tout our strategy, including Iraq, as the reason.  They may or may not be right - we'll never know.  If we are attacked, the left will say the Iraq war is the cause and Bush is the culprit.  They may or may not be right - we'll never know.  The truth will be elusive in either case.  One thing I will say, whether deciding to wage war in Iraq was the right decision or not, without that action the President's legacy and the GOP's prospects in the near term would be much less vulnerable to attack from an attack.

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:15am 08/17/05 ::
Tuesday, August 16, 2005
Shrinking deficit, ballooning danger
Eric Lindholm, aka Viking Pundit, reacts to news of a shrinking projected deficit by pointing to the real iceberg headed our way - the monster of Social Security entitlements.  Here's some of what Eric has to say...
...it's so depressing to see Social Security reform floundering in Washington. Democrats, who are playing against the president for political gain, know these problems exist.  Without reform, everything that people call "the government" will disappear, shouldered aside by spiraling entitlements.  Do the math:  if 33% of all tax revenues goes to interest on the federal debt and 50% go to entitlements, that's a pretty small wedge of pie left for defense, homeland security, education, food safety, etc.  Essentially, the government will turn into a huge money transfer program, taking revenues from the young and sending cash to the banks and seniors.  What's worse is that all the foreign countries that have purchased U.S. treasury bonds will start cashing them in to address the costs of their own aging population, thereby draining even more money from the Treasury.
Scary.  We really do need to do something about Social Security.  Read the whole thing.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:50pm 08/16/05 ::
Monday, August 15, 2005
Melting pot no more
Betsy Newmark, reacting to a piece by Michael Barone, has some excellent comments on some of the problems with multiculturalism.  As a public school teacher, she provides a valuable perspective on multiculturalism in action.

posted by Scott Elliott at 12:40am 08/15/05 ::
Friday, August 12, 2005
Most exciting GOP pickup opportunity of 2006
What do you think that would be?  Patrick Ruffini is taking a poll.  Go vote here.  When you do, you can check where you and other readers of this site stand by clicking the pull down box and selecting electionprojection.com from the list.

I voted for Capito in West Virginia.  Not sure if she's running, or has a chance if she does, but knocking off an institution like the former klansman Byrd would be amazing.  Just the possibility, regardless of how small, gets me excited.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:40pm 08/12/05 ::
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
"Under God" safe...for now
The 4th US Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that the words "under God" can remain in an obligatory recitation of the Pledge of Allegiance.  A Virginia law requiring public schools to daily recite the Pledge was challenged by a disgruntled father of three Virginia school children.  Here's Judge Karen Williams' opinion in favor of the law:
Undoubtedly, the pledge contains a religious phrase, and it is demeaning to persons of any faith to assert that the words 'under God' contain no religious significance.  The inclusion of those two words, however, does not alter the nature of the pledge as a patriotic activity.
My human nature yearns to drip with sarcasm in reaction to the man who initiated such a lawsuit.  However, I will refrain from biting and critical quips and instead just say this.  If an atheist is so troubled by the use of the words "under God," perhaps he is too unsure about his atheism and might do well to consider belief in God.

In pre-emptive response to comments I'm sure to receive from this post, let me put it in perspective for you.  Aside from the words "under God", the Pledge of Allegiance also contains the phrase "with liberty and justice for all."  There are some in this country who don't agree with that.  They are the most extreme among us, and they believe one race's rights should outweigh the rest.  Justice for all is not what they want in the least.  But you know what?  The majority of us don't feel that way, so they must put up with that language in the Pledge.

You have the right to be an atheist, and you have the right to be a racist, but you don't have a right to have every public policy, document, or decree reflect those beliefs.  If a majority of Americans, as determined by who wins elections and appoints judges to interpret the Constitution, believes "under God" is just fine in the Pledge of Allegiance, then, by golly, it is!

Update:  For the sake of consistency, I need to add that if the courts ruled in the father's favor, then, by golly, that would have been just fine, too - not with me mind you, but with the concept of representative government.  If duly appointed judges, nominated and confirmed by duly elected officials, ruled that way, then I should not cry foul and say the republic is broken.  What I should do, in that case, is what the father can do now - work and vote to elect officials who will affect the outcome he desires with respect to the Pledge of Allegiance.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:40pm 08/10/05 ::
Tuesday, August 9, 2005
Freedom
My family and I are on vacation in Texas right now.  We piled the kids and luggage into to the minivan and headed west from North Carolina last Tuesday.  We decided to drive rather than fly.  We decided to leave really early Tuesday morning, around 4:30am.  We decided to take I-30 rather than I-40.  We decided to stop in Birmingham the first night and eat at Johnny Ray's that evening for dinner.  We had originally planned on stopping the second night in Shreveport but later decided to travel all the way to Fort Worth since starting early made travelling easier.  We decided where to stay in Fort Worth, when to leave for Houston and where to stop along the way.  On the way back, we'll make all those decisions all over again.

Why do I share this useless information?  I'll tell you.  Not once this week have we asked anyone for permission.  Not once were we worried that government troops or outlaw bandidos would stop our minivan and hurt us or take our stuff.  The same is true for the thousands upon thousands we passed along the way who are living out their lives and making those decisions for themselves.  Ain't freedom just grand!  May we never lose sight of the awesome privilege of liberty that we have in America, and may we never forget the vigilence required of each of us to keep ourselves free.  But we must be careful not to mistakenly define freedom.  As one of our founding fathers once said...
Liberty is not the license to do as you please, it is the freedom to do as you ought.
Indeed.  The "if-it-feels-good-do-it" crowd should take note - that attitude doesn't reflect freedom.  It corrupts it.

posted by Scott Elliott at 1:15pm 08/09/05 ::
Saturday, August 6, 2005
Edict #1:  Roberts will be seated by the October SCOTUS session
Unless you've been with me since near the beginning of Election Projection, you're probably wondering why the heading at the top of this section says "Edicts and Commentary."  If you have read The Blogging Caesar since the early days, you know every once in a while I used to post a prediction for the outcome of some current event.  I haven't posted such a prediction in a long time, but I feel Roberts' nomination and the ensuing discussion of it does merit an edict.  So here we go...

By edict of The Blogging Caesar, it is hereby decreed that Judge John Roberts will be confirmed by the United States Senate and seated on the Supreme Court bench in time to open the October session.  Furthermore, the filibuster will not be employed by the democrats in the senate.

I hereby seal and deliver this edict this Saturday, the 6th of August, in the year of our Lord 2005.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:10pm 08/06/05 ::
"Roll-adds"
This weekend, I'm expanding my blogroll again.  Be sure to go visit the new guys.

Here we go again (in no particular order):

  • Election Junkie
  • SoCalPundit
  • A Certain Slant of Light
  • Libertarian Leanings
  • Winds of Change
  • The Strata-Sphere
  • Mark Steyn

    posted by Scott Elliott at 1:30pm 08/06/05 ::
  • Tuesday, August 2, 2005
    Ohio 2nd district special election
    David Wissing of The Hedgehog Report is updating frequently on today's special congressional election in Ohio's 2nd district.  Barring a monumental comeback by the challenger, it looks like the GOP will hold this seat.  That's the good news.  The bad news comes from this little tidbit found here...
    As no Democrat has received more than 37 per cent of the vote since Thomas Luken in 1974, Schmidt has been widely favored to win the election.
    Well, as it stands right now, the Democrat Hackett is doing extremely well - Schmidt, the Republican, holds only a 2 point lead with just over 80% of precincts reporting.  After the post below which gives GOPers cause for glee, I must admit this race causes some concern.

    Update:  At 10:30, with 662 out of 753, Hackett has closed the gap considerably.  The vote count stands at 49,681 to 48,811.  As they say in sports, it's anybody's ballgame now.  Win or lose, this is certainly a "moral victory" for the democrats tonight.

    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:15pm 08/02/05 ::
    The submerging Democratic majority
    Not along ago, a headline-grabbing book, "The Emerging Democratic Majority," was written foretelling a soon and lasting democratic majority in American politics.  John Hawkins points to an article in The Star-Ledger that sheds some serious doubt on the authors' jubilant claims.
    About the only thing Democrats here seemed united on was a deep dislike for President Bush. But that won't be enough, they were told by Al From, founder of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, which organized this "national conversation."

    Employing statistics from the national census and the 2004 presidential election, From hit his audience, including some 300 elected Democratic officials, with this grim picture of why he believes Democrats need a new act:

    For every two Americans who say they're liberals, three are conservatives. Democrats lost 97 of the 100 fastest-growing counties in the country last year. Small cities and most suburbs buried the Democratic ticket.  Ditto married couples with children.  The Democratic vote among the Hispanic population fell 40 percent from 2000.  And it collapsed among voters earning more than $40,000 a year.

    Noting that Sen. John Kerry got a bigger vote among Democrats in losing than Bill Clinton did in winning, From declared that "the Democratic base is not big enough to win. The country is more conservative." (Emphasis added)

    glug glug... As I've said before, I'd rather be red than blue these days!

    posted by Scott Elliott at 4:00pm 08/02/05 ::
    Monday, August 1, 2005
    Daily Blog Roundup - R.I.P.
    The Blogging Caesar is sad to announce the very early death of the Daily Blog Roundup.  While I appreciate so much the interest that a few of my fellow bloggers showed in it, their numbers were small compared to the amount of interest I had anticipated.  In light of all the work it takes to scour dozens of blogs everyday, I've decided to close down the Roundup.  Besides, my family and I are about to embark on a vacation to Texas for the next week and a half, so this seems as good a time as any to throw in the towel.  Don't worry, though, The Blogging Caesar will continue to be here to provide a steady dose of conservative Christian commentary on the goings on in the political world - even on vacation thanks to hotels with high-speed internet!

    posted by Scott Elliott at 7:30pm 08/01/05 ::
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