Debate #1: First Contact
After all the rallies, attack ads, and media shoots, we're finally going to get the two
candidates in the same room together to debate what really matters in this election. Okay, maybe not.
But they will be in the same room together. I'm going to be posting my reactions on this site as
the debate progresses, so be sure to check back frequently this evening.
As a preview, I'm posting just a thought or two in advance of tonight's meeting. I believe Kerry
must do his best to present himself as a candidate to vote for, rather than simply a replacement to fill in
should Bush be kicked out of office. This debate and the two that follow are Kerry's last best chance
to turn the tide in his direction. He still should try to cast Bush in a negative light, but if he can't
muster something of substance for his own candidacy, he'll end up falling further behind in the coming days.
Bush, on the other hand, must avoid a big stumble. He is a known quantity, and as long as he
doesn't significantly damage that image in the eyes of voters, he should come out without hurting his standing.
Here's what to look for in the three debates:
Kerry will try to get under Bush's skin. Bush must keep his temper in
check. Hopefully, the President is prepared for this tactic and will be in control of his emotions.
I believe we'll see Kerry repeatedly direct inflammatory accusations at the President in hopes of
angering him.
Bush will rattle off position after contradictory position that Kerry has voiced on a variety of issues,
especially Iraq.
Speaking of Iraq, it will be the biggest fight. And the contest will be between Bush's decisive
resolve, or irresponsible stubborness depending on your point of view, and Kerry's flip-flopping on the decision
to use force in Iraq and then on the funding of the troops there. Only time will tell whose message resonates
more effectively with voters.
Not to be forgotten will be Kerry's inevitable rehashing of the normal Democratic talking points regarding
the economy, health care, social security and the deficit. How well Bush responds to these attacks will
go a long way in deciding who wins the debates.
I'm looking forward to these debates. They should be fun to watch. My prediction is that no major
movement either way will result from them. Bush will solidify, not significantly increase, his current lead.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:00am 09/30/04
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September 26, 2004
Polling data update
President Bush's job approval is at its highest level of the year. Head-to-head
polls show a slight dip in the President's lead over John Kerry. Combined, these two factors produce the
exact popular vote percentage as last week - 51.1% to 47.1%. However, recent state polls impact this week's
Election Projection significantly with regard to electoral votes. By
regaining Pennsylvania, Oregon and New Mexico, Kerry has trimmed Bush's lead to 295-243.
With 57 electoral votes leaning precariously his way, Kerry must be careful not to lose anymore ground if he
hopes to avoid a landslide defeat. Conversely, the President simply needs to hold his own in the debates,
and he should win in November. Bush's aggregate job approval now stands at 51.6%, a mark that is starting
to give him a certain degree of invulnerability for an incumbent seeking re-election. I wrote in my
last projection update that Senator Kerry's choice to continue
focusing on Iraq is not the right decision. A
bi-partisan poll out today illustrates the difficulty
he faces in trying to score points with the situation there.
Here's a snapshot of some of the
results of that poll:
Who would better safeguard America from a terrorist threat?
Bush 57%, Kerry 34% (Bush +23%)
Who would better deal with Iraq?
Bush 54%, Kerry 39% (Bush +15%)
Who is a stronger leader?
Bush 56%, Kerry 35% (Bush +21%)
The likely result of Kerry's new strategy is to highlight Bush's advantages rather than creating a negative
perception of him. People by and large have formed their opinions about the trustworthiness of Bush in
the run up to the war in Iraq and the events following. Regardless of how they feel about that, voters
still give him these huge double-digit advantages over Kerry on the issues of leadership, national security, and
Iraq.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been
477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total
was 181 on September 5, 2003. May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far. That
update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/26/04
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September 21, 2004
Happy birthday, Mom!
Jean Dover Elliott would have been 59 today.
She had such a warmth about her. The love of Christ was so evident in her life. I love her
dearly and miss her terribly. I long to hear her voice and feel her embrace. But, I take comfort
in knowing that she is unimaginably content right now in the arms of her Savior. And I will see her again
when my tasks on this earth are done. Mom, thank you so much for loving me, for raising me to know right
from wrong, and, most importantly, for teaching me about Jesus.
[For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my mother was killed along with my father and two others
in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004. They were on a humanitarian mission to bring aid to suffering and needy
people there. My parents had spent the last 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels
through which the love of God changed countless lives.]
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/21/04
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September 19, 2004
Polling data update
Now that President Bush is clearly ahead in the polls, I'm going to try to temper my
enthusiasm as I report this week's Election Projection. A slew of state
polls out this week tilt the count decidedly in Bush's favor. He now holds 328 electoral votes after
gaining 4 states. Oregon, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and biggie Pennsylvania are on his side for the time
being, giving the President his largest lead since January 31. Kerry is now projected to win only 210
electoral votes and is trailing the incumbent by 4%, 51.1% - 47.1% in the popular vote.
John Kerry's campaign is floundering and the President is riding high. The challenger has not been
able to dictate the terms of the race so far. According to
Newsweek, Kerry is looking to change the focus
of his attacks on Bush. He has chosen to shift focus from domestic issues and try to hammer home a
negative critique of the situation in Iraq. (Hat tip:
Taegan Goddard)
He needs to do something to wrest the momentum away from Bush, or he will be in for a rout in November.
I don't think this will work for Kerry, though. Keeping the discussion on Iraq plays, however
indirectly, to the issue of national security, Bush's strength. Besides, I can't imagine there are too
many voters out there who are still capable of being influenced by the whole "Bush is lying" mantra. After
all, that theme has been played almost constantly this year already.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been
477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total
was 181 on September 5, 2003. May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far. That
update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 09/19/04
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September 17, 2004
War and football
I just came across this blog, written by
Captain Frank Myers, US Corps of Engineers. He's serving in Baghdad, Iraq. I want everyone to read
this letter he
wrote to Alabama head football coach Mike Shula. What a great piece! To you, Captain Myers, and
all your men, I offer profound gratitude for your service. As you put it so well:
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For we do not only fight to free other people from oppression, we fight to protect what we
love about America. College football is part of what we love. That’s why the soldiers seem so
happy now that their beloved teams are playing. It reminds us of the good, fun things about our country
we love so much.
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May God bless each of you!
Welcome to my blogroll, Captain.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:50pm 09/17/04
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September 16, 2004
Are you kidding me??
What is going on?
First this:
Ohio...
Bush 52%, Kerry 42%
Florida...
Bush 51%, Kerry 46%
Wisconsin...
Bush 52%, Kerry 44%
Now this:
Illinois...
Kerry 49%, Bush 45%
New Jersey...
Bush 49%, Kerry 45% (2000 result: Gore by 15.8%!)
Pinch me, I'm dreaming! Seriously, I don't think for a minute that Bush will actually take New Jersey,
but to see him ahead there and only 4 points behind in Illinois makes my day. I'm sure the anniversary
of 9/11 and McGreevey's troubles partly explain the Jersey survey. I'll say it's an outlier...for now.
One more thing...
Bush within single digits in New York!
Gotta love it!
Hat tip: RealClearPolitics
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:20pm 09/15/04
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September 12, 2004
Polling data update
This week's Election Projection is up. Bush has
enjoyed a solid if not enormous bounce from the RNC. Earlier this week, as my Daily Projection Updates
revealed, the bounced reached it's pinnacle with the President ahead by 4.8%. Just before the convention,
Bush held a small 0.3% lead. Thus, by decree of The Blogging Caesar, the official Bush Bounce from the RNC
was 4.5%. It has dwindled ever so slightly since and currently stands at 4.1%,
51.1% - 47.0%.
Due to some crazy state polls, Bush's increased popular vote advantage is met with a small decrease in
his electoral vote lead. He gives back Wisconsin this week while gaining Iowa, resulting in a 285-253 EV
count.
In a stark difference from over the summer, the battle is being waged mostly in the blue states now.
The President's improving approval numbers and general upturn in the electorate's sense of how things are going
are contributing to this change. State polls still depict a tight race that leans to Senator Kerry in
several states. In fact, four states, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Wisconsin, as well as Maine's
2nd district are all in Kerry's basket due to state polls. These states represent 32 electoral votes.
They also reflect the grave state of the challenger's position as they are but a whisker from going to
Bush. Moreover, Pennsylvania is right on the threshold as well. In terms of margin, that makes 53
electoral votes that are approximately 1.5% away from red territory. By contrast, New Hampshire, with its
4 EVs, is the only state on Bush's side within that same margin.
We'll see if Bush's bounce can hold up better than Kerry's did. I suspect it will. I'll also
venture a guess that we've seen the last projection with Kerry in the lead. And the election itself will
demonstrate that Bush's true advantage is even more than the polls indicate. I'm very pleased with the
President's current standing and his prospects heading into the homestretch.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been
477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total
was 181 on September 5, 2003. May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far. That
update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:10pm 09/12/04
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September 10, 2004
Making up for lost time
I've settled onto my sofa in front of the tube awaiting the first ACC matchup between
Miami and Florida State. It's weird to think these two teams are now in the same conference. Anyway,
I've blocked out the next 3 or 4 hours to watch the game and do some blogging.
This has been a very busy week on the political front, and I've been too busy with other committments to
post anything. I plan to make up for lost time tonight while watching the game.
Desparately seeking Kerry - Polipundit, one of my very favorite bloggers, wonders when Senator Kerry will ever
answer questions
from the media again. It has been a month and nine days now. Read the Chicago Tribune article
Poli links to. By the way, let me take this chance to thank my man Polipundit for helping me get into
blogging. His advice, when I was but a blogging baby, proved invaluable. If only I could get on his
blogroll! hehe.
48 Flags for 9/11 - As we prepare to mark the third anniversary of the tragedy that was September
11, 2001, I'd like point everyone to this patriotic project. It's
a great story and a wonderful way to honor both the lives of those who perished and character of our strong
and resilient nation.
Oregonians for Nader - Good news for Nader supporters. A judge has ruled that Ralph Nader
has fulfilled the signature requirement and will be on
ballot in the Beaver State.
A plethora of polls - A boatload of voter surveys, both state and national, has been released in the last
few days. We'll see this weekend how they've affected the tally here at Election Projection.
Of course, those of you who have signed up for The Blogging Caesar's
Daily Projection Updates, already know how the numbers have changed.
If you want to get the daily scoop, too, send in your donation of $40 or more today...
A heartfelt thank you - Speaking of donations, I'm deeply grateful to everyone who has donated to
help me with this site. I'm looking forward to many more years of blogging and to projecting the outcome
of many elections to come.
Narrowing the playing field - This is not good news for Democrats and reveals what must be a
deteriorating outlook inside the Kerry campaign. Kerry planned on fighting Bush in 21 states, but he
has decided to buy advertising in only
fourteen states. Well, hold on a
minute...Kerry has now changed his mind and will add
Missouri and Colorado
back into the mix.
I'm an idiot! - At least according to
Teresa Heintz Kerry.
If you don't agree with her husband John Kerry's health care plan, you are too.
A plug for another projection - I've been keeping tabs on various other election predicting sites.
A few are linked in the sidebar. One particular site about which I've heard quite a few negative
comments is Electoral Vote Predictor. I wish to address "the
votemaster's" website. He, like I, is very partisan in his philosophy. He is my antithesis, so to
speak. In my opinion, however, he does a good job of reporting the latest polling data in an objective
way. Along with my site, of course, I'd encourage you to check him out as we all try to make sense of
who's winning this crazy race to November 2nd. On a similar note, I'm looking to expand the list
of projection sites linked here. So, if you run one or know of one you think is well-done, please email
me with the url.
A tale of two hit pieces - Kitty Kelley's character assassination of President Bush and his family
is set to make waves next week as she does the morning show circuit. Last month, the Swift Boat Veterans
for Truth made waves with a blockbuster book painting John Kerry in an extremely negative light. The
coverage of that book in the media focused almost entirely on the background of those who questioned John
Kerry's character. As Ms. Kelly is interviewed by the mainstream media, I suspect the claims in her
book will be discussed as fact without much question. I'm almost certain the motivation of the messenger
will be, at best, an aside. Such is the state of the major media in this country.
Dandy Dan Rather - I don't have much to say about Dan Rather's use of allegedly forged papers in his
version of the Bush character assassination. (That's becoming such a common theme among the media, isn't it?)
However, the aforementioned
Polipundit
and his crew of bloggers are all over it. Blogs for Bush,
Powerline,
Instapundit,
Wizbang, and
Hugh Hewitt are all over it, too. I think we just may be
witnessing the birth and maturation of a new and powerful source of information that could begin to rival
TV and print in it's reach and influence. Welcome to the
blogosphere!
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:20pm 09/10/04
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September 6, 2004
Spelling "Victory"
Do you know how to spell victory? For President Bush, victory is spelled
G-O-P-G-O-T-V. In the days that follow November 2, political analysts will be evaluating the presidential
elections of 2004. They will spout their punditry on morning shows and front pages. I'll
give you a preview of the theme that will dominate the discussion. The story of the day will be a
devastating get-out-the-vote effort by the GOP.
We caught a glimpse of the soon-to-be-legendary 72-hour task force in action in 2002. Even though
polls leading up to voting day showed a tight race overall, the GOP dominated that election. Close races,
by and large, went to the Republican candidate. The GOP even took some contests in which the Democrat
was several points ahead in the polls. In my much-debated essay entitled
"Twenty-one Reasons Why Bush Will Win", I mention this newfound GOP strength.
Rachelle Cohen has written an
article which gives some details
about how much better the GOP has become at grassroots organizing. As she puts it...
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Voter registration was basically seen as a Democratic plot. After all, if people weren't smart enough or
committed enough to register, well, the [..] with 'em.
That day is finally over for the GOP. Maybe it was the 2000 mess in Florida, or maybe the anticipated
closeness of this year's race, but the party finally gets it - it is about getting people registered and
getting them to the polls.
...
The RNC is aiming for 3 million new registered Republicans and since the fall of 2003 has already put 2.4
million new GOP voters on the rolls. ``We've really changed the culture,'' Hazelwood said, tacitly
acknowledging what a low-priority voter registration had been in the past.
...
The 72-Hour Task Force - so named because its get-out-the-vote effort really goes into high gear in those
last hours prior to and on election day - claims 1.5 million leaders in all 50 states.
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Prior to 2002, the GOP GOTV program consisted largely of phone calls and media buys. That strategy fared
poorly against the legions of union workers and other Democratic activists combing the streets. Well,
times have changed. Those legions will be out in force again, but this time they'll be joined by
comparably-sized elephant stampedes. The difference will be substantial. I'll go so far as to say
that, as a result, we can expect Bush and the GOP to perform a full 3 or 4 points better than the round of
late-October polls would indicate.
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:45pm 09/06/04
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September 5, 2004
Daily projection updates
I'm sure most of you noticed the Daily Projection notification that I've added to this
page and to the election projection page. Let me first reassure everyone that this site remains a free
site. I will continue to post weekly projection updates and frequent commentary for anyone who wants to
view them, right up to election day. Moreover, commentary will continue, God willing, long after this
election is over. The offer is in addition to everything else I do on this website.
I have been amazed by the growth in visitors to this site, and I am truly grateful to everyone who has
visited or donated to this point. To help defer the cost of Election Projection's exploding readership,
I'm offering my readers a daily projection email which will provide an up-to-the-minute snapshot of
Campaign 2004. Click here for more information.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/05/04
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Polling data update
The bounce begins. Two blockbuster polls, each showing President Bush with a
double-digit lead, were released this week. I want to warn Bushies out there not to get too excited by
the polls because they were taken during the GOP convention. Likely voters are likely to heavily favor
Bush while GOP headliners such as Rudy and Arnold, et al, are being broadcast into voters' homes each evening.
Polls released the next few days will more accurately reflect the President's true RNC bounce.
Nevertheless, The Blogging Caesar always uses whatever polls are available to compute the
Election Projection, and this week is no different. President Bush
enjoyed his first real lead in quite some time last week. This week more positive polling data enables
him to expand that lead a little. His electoral vote advantage now stands at 38, 288-250, and the
popular vote percentage shows Bush comfortably ahead, 50.9% - 47.3%.
New Hampshire, a red state in 2000 but a persistant sore spot for Bush in 2004, is back in the fold this
week thanks to improving national numbers and a lack of recent state polling data. However, I expect the
Granite State to continue to be problematic for Bush due to its proximity to Senator Kerry's home state of
Massachusetts.
Back to the bounce: The effect of the convention will not be fully known until the next round of
state polls is completed. These polls usually lag national surveys, and have yet to register a GOP surge.
As a result, state polls help Kerry out significantly this week. Without them, three states
including Iowa, New Mexico, and Oregon, as well as Maine's district 2 would be projected for Bush.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen
on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.. May 26, 2004 saw Mr Bush's worst
percentage deficit so far. That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 09/05/04
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September 4, 2004
It's all about trust
On Thursday night, our President accepted his party's nomination with a rousing tribute
to the character of America and a strong defense of his policies during the last four years. All the
preliminaries of this election campaign are now done. Eight weeks, three debates and several hundred
million dollars now stand between us and decision day. I listened to President Bush's speech with a
mixture of bated breath and deep admiration and respect. I am an unabashed Bush fan, as you know if
you've read my blog for long, so I was naturally pleased and energized by the can do, must do, will do tone of
his speech. I was gripped by Bush's account of the days after September 11, 2001. I was moved
seeing the emotion of a man deeply struck by the reactions of individual Americans during the hard times that
followed. Granted, I wasn't too impressed by creative new ways to expand the federal government, but,
hey, nobody's perfect!
One thing his tendency for bigger government does display, though, is Bush's genuine concern for the
citizens of this country. I may not always agree with the implementation of his compassion, but I am glad
to have a president who sincerely cares for those around him. Equally important in this world filled
with constant threats of terror, our President reminded us once again that he will not cower in the face of
difficult choices, nor will he waver once those decisions have been made.
However, it occurred to me then that many in this country were listening with a much different response.
Immersed within the polarized conflict Americans are waging in this country nowadays, lies one overriding
question. It is a question that is the very essence of the intense hatred and profound love for this man.
That question is: Do you trust him?
The answer for the vast majority of Americans is inseparably connected to their degree of support or
disapproval of his presidency. For those of us who take his words as true and generally unexaggerated,
his presidency has been a great success and his leadership has averted and will continue to avert many deadly
consequences in the War on Terror. For those who believe Bush couldn't tell the truth if it was streaming
across the teleprompter in front of him, his presidency has been an unmitigated disaster. And then there
is that undecided group, as small as 2 or 3 percent in some polls, who see Bush as your average
"stretch-and-spin-the-truth-to-fit-your-purposes" politician. In stark contrast to other presidential
elections, I don't think this group will have much effect on the election one way or the other.
This year the election is more about getting out the base than any other factor, and the bases involved can
be identified by their degree of trust in President Bush. In the end, Bush's speech, while awesome in the eyes and
ears of The Blogging Caesar, will only impact the outcome of the election in the manner in which it energizes
those whose opinions of him have already been solidified. He did nothing to diminish the respect and
love of many Americans. Indeed, he effectively confirmed why so many of us hold him in such high esteem.
Likewise, I'm sure, he fanned the flames of hatred for those who think he is akin to "Hitler" or "the
anti-Christ."
So, amid all the talk on the economy, education, terror, Iraq, taxes, health care, and the environment, I
ask you the one question that, in the end and perhaps subconsiously, may influence more votes than all these
issues - Do you trust him as your president?
Through his unwavering strength in the face of terrorism's global menace, through his compassion for his
fellow man, and through his commitment to traditional moral values now firmly entrenched once again in the
White House, George W. Bush has resoundingly earned my trust. And I believe he is the candidate that all
of us can trust.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:50pm 09/04/04
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September 1, 2004
"The conscience of the Democratic party"
That's the way Georgia Senator Zell Miller was introduced tonight. What can I say
about that man? He was outstanding. In July, I thought Barak Obama was fabulous at the Democratic
National Convention, a head and shoulders above anyone else who spoke that week. So far this week,
Senator Miller is the Barak Obama of the GOP Convention. His words cut right to the heart of what our
country faces in these times and the compounded risk we'll take if John Kerry is elected president. And
the fact that he is a Democrat adds weight and veracity to his assertions.
Surely, if Kerry has a nightmare tonight, Zell Miller will be there. Democratic activists and
left-wingers will try to downplay this speech;
they will say he is now nothing more than a Republican with a
"D" after his name. That may be true. But Zell has not changed; his party has. Unfortunately
for them, I believe Miller's willingness to speak out at the RNC and the forcefulness of his words will impact
independents and moderate Democrats alike. I hope voters in battleground states will be introduced
time and time again to clips of this speech in political ads. Miller's speech hit its mark tonight and
will continue to right up to election day.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 09/01/04
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Reason #16: Governor Schwarzenegger
The Governator was on last night. He was a hoot. His differences with the
socially conservative wing of the GOP have been well-documented. The wild and crazy days of his youth have
too. He may not be the man to hold up the flag of virtue in this country, but he certainly embodies what
this country has meant to countless immigrants down through the years. And he certainly knows a Republican
when he sees one.
My favorite part of the speech,
his economic girlie men comment included, was his description of the different types of Republicans.
I've often thought that many more would consider themselves Republicans if the truth
about the GOP were known and the presentation of the GOP in the media were not so negative. In case you
missed it, I'm posting that part of the speech here. Don't be surprised to find yourself somewhere in
the list.
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If you believe that government should be accountable to the people, not the people to the government, then
you are a Republican.
If you believe a person should be treated as an individual, not as a member of an interest group, then you
are a Republican.
If you believe your family knows how to spend your money better than the government does, then you are a
Republican.
If you believe our educational system should be held accountable for the progress of our children, then
you are a Republican.
If you believe this country, not the United Nations, is the best hope for democracy, then you are a
Republican.
And, ladies and gentlemen, if you believe that we must be fierce and relentless and terminate terrorism,
then you are a Republican.
Now, there's another way you can tell you're a Republican. You have faith in free enterprise, faith
in the resourcefulness of the American people and faith in the U.S. economy.
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posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 09/01/04
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