Is Perlmutter really up by 17%?
This week a SurveyUSA poll was released for Colorado's important congressional battle in CD-07. The poll showed Democrat
Ed Perlmutter ahead of Republican Rick O'Donnell by 17 points. Just last month, the same firm had this race tied at 45%. What could have
happened? Gerry Daly at Crosstabs.org has taken a look at the internals and offers this
evaluation. I hope next month's SurveyUSA poll for this district corrects whatever
inaccuracies were introduced this month.
Update: Unfortunately, it looks like Crosstabs.org is down. I do hope they get back up and running soon. It's a great
website, and it would be a shame to lose it.
Update2: Crosstabs is back up now.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:15pm 09/30/06
Link to this post
Friday, September 29, 2006
Weekly Projection Update
The GOP hold on the House is a bit more tenuous here at Election Projection this week. The Democrats can add Bob Ney's seat
in Ohio CD-18 to their growing list of gains. This switch gives them 12 new seats (including Sanders' seat in Vermont), only 4 away from the magic
number of 16 (including Sanders' seat) to clinch control of the House. And with the late-breaking news of Mark Foley's resignation (FL CD-16), the
GOP's majority looks to become still more tenuous.
On the Senate side, things are remarkably stable, even boring, considering all the news being made by so many on Capitol Hill. Since Tom Kean
moved ahead of Robert Menendez in New Jersey back on September 6th, not one seat has changed hands. Two seats, including the one in New Jersey,
are razor close right now and could flip at any time. Kean's projected margin is only 1.9% and Bob Corker's hold on Tennessee's open Senate seat is
a scant 0.1%. (Projected margins for all tracked races are available to subscribers.)
In the races for the nation's statehouses, we've seen a lot of changes this week, but not of the color-changing variety. Instead, many of last
week's leaders have solidified their advantages. It is interesting to note that no less than 4 gubernatorial contests are now rated "Strong DEM
Gain". In fact, of the 36 on tap in November, only 6 currently fall in the "Weak" category.
The next update will be next Friday, Oct. 6. If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state
election information, check out Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program and sign up today.
Projected Tally
Senate
This week: 52 GOP, 46 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +2, GOP -3, IND +1
Same count as last week
House
This week: 221 GOP, 214 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +12, GOP -11, IND -1
Last week: 222 GOP, 213 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +11, GOP -10, IND -1
Governorships
This week: 22 GOP, 28 DEM -
DEM +6, GOP -6
Same count as last week
New Race Tracking
Hawaii - Senate, Governor
Texas - CD-22
Ohio - CD-18
Race Rating Changes
Monday
Maryland Senate -
Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Hawaii Governor -
Weak GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold
Massachusetts Governor -
Mod DEM Gain to Strong DEM Gain
Maryland Governor -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Oregon Governor -
Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
Rhode Island Governor -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
South Carolina Governor -
Mod GOP Hold to Strong GOP Hold
Wisconsin Governor -
Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
Arizona CD-8 -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Tuesday
Colorado Governor -
Mod DEM Gain to Strong DEM Gain
Wednesday
Colorado CD-7 -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Thursday
NONE
Friday
South Carolina Governor -
Strong GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
Ohio CD-18 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Pennsylvania CD-7 -
Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:00pm 09/29/06
Link to this post
Subscriber update
I've gone through all subscriber information and should have everything ironed out. The Daily Email Alert went out to
everyone on my subscriber list and all but a dozen or so were delivered successfully. I apologize to my readers who haven't subscribed (and why
haven't you?) for this distraction, but this is the only way I can reach those whose email deliveries don't complete successfully. If you subscribed
and you still have not heard anything from me, please notify me. This can happen for several reasons. You could mistype the email address
when processing your contribution; your mailbox could be full; or you could have a spam blocker that filters out my welcome email. In the case of
a spam blocker at work, simply sending me an email I can reply to will fix that problem. Thanks everyone.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:40pm 09/26/06
Link to this post
Clash of the Titans?
No, more like David and Goliath. Political guru Charlie Cook is pretty much
predicting the Democrats will take the House,
though he is hedging his bets just a bit.
| On an actual seat count, not factoring in any national dynamics or turnout
advantage for either party, the fight for the House is right about at the
tipping point of 15 seats. It could be as little as 10 or as many as 20, but a
seat count of 15 is at the top of the bell curve of likely outcomes.
But for me, and many other analysts who have seen other elections that
demonstrated characteristics like this one (e.g., 1994, 1982 and 1974), the
upper end of that range seems more likely (or even higher). Why? Republican
voters seem to be considerably less motivated than Democratic voters, there's a
strong chance that there will be no losses of seats currently held by Democrats
to offset gains, and a diminished financial advantage by the national Republican
committees over their Democratic counterparts, just to name a few.
|
If you're a regular reader of Election Projection, you know that The Blogging Caesar has
decreed that the GOP will retain the majority.
So, we have a contest afoot. I don't mind playing the role of David in this one - after all, the Biblical result turned out rather nicely.
Of course, he did have Divine power on his side.
posted by Scott Elliott at 6:30pm 09/25/06
Link to this post
Weekly Projection Update
For the second week in a row, we haven't seen any change in the projections for the House or Senate. The Democrats are
still projected to win 2 net seats (3 if you count Joe Lieberman's seat) in the Senate and 11 net seats in the House (1 of which is Bernie Sanders' seat
in Vermont). We do have a change in the projected gubernatorial balance this week, however. In Rhode Island, it appears Don Carcieri has
taken a small but clear lead over Charles Fogarty in his quest to retain the office for the GOP. That switch lowers the GOP's projected losses to
6 but still gives the Democrats the lead 28-22 in governorships.
Notes:
Maryland Senate: Michael Steele is faring well against Ben Cardin in the first week after
primaries here. The Republican even polls ahead of Cardin in one poll released this week. A Steele victory would all but end the Democrats
dream of taking the Senate. However, The Blogging Caesar is unwilling to predict that outcome. I still believe Cardin is ahead in this race
by a few points and will win in November - notice this is not an "Edict", though.
Pennsylvania Governor: Unlike his African-American colleague in Maryland, GOPer Lynn
Swann is having a monstrous hard time gaining any traction with his candidacy. This race, once a close duel with the markings of a nail-biter, is
now all but over. Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell is dominating this race and would probably get within a point or two of 60% of the vote if
the election were held today.
Virginia Senate: This race tightened considerably after George Allen's "macaca" remark.
That tightening seems to have ended, though, and I expect Allen's lead to swell a bit soon from it current 5 or 6 point margin. I just don't see
him losing here. It could be close enough to make the GOP sweat some on election night, but I doubt that Jim Webb will get any closer to Allen
than he is right now.
New Jersey Senate: Here we go again. Tom Kean is consistently polling ahead of
Robert Menendez, giving the GOP reason for hope in this deep blue state. But we've been through this song and dance before. I'm not sure
how many points ahead Kean would have to be for me to feel the GOP had a real shot at this one, but it is certainly more than 2 or 3, which is where the
race stands now.
The next update will be next Friday, Sept. 29. If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state
election information, check out Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program and join over 500 other
Election Projection readers who've already named their price.
Projected Tally
Senate
This week: 52 GOP, 46 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +2, GOP -3, IND +1
Same count as last week
House
This week: 222 GOP, 213 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +11, GOP -10, IND -1
Same count as last week
Governorships
This week: 22 GOP, 28 DEM -
DEM +6, GOP -6
Last week: 21 GOP, 29 DEM -
DEM +7, GOP -7
New Race Tracking
Massachusetts - Senate, Governor
Washington - Governor, CD-8
Vermont - CD-AL
Race Rating Changes
Monday
Pennsylvania CD-7 -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
Montana Senate -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Tuesday
Arizona CD-5 -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
Iowa CD-1 -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Wednesday
Ohio Senate -
Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
Rhode Island Governor -
Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
Washington Senate -
Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Thursday
Maryland Senate -
Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
Pennsylvania Governor -
Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold
Vermont CD-AL -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Friday
Ohio Senate -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Update: I've added an at-a-glance list of all this week's changes at the top of each section of the
projection page so you can conveniently see what changes have occurred since the last weekly update.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:00pm 09/22/06
Link to this post
Heart Walk
I've signed up to walk for the heart.
Heart Walk
is sponsored by the American Heart Association. The event is a non-competitive walk that seeks to accomplish four goals:
Celebrate Survivors of heart disease and stroke
Encourage walking and physical activity as part of a healthy lifestyle
Educate the public about the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease and stroke
Raise money for biomedical research, education and outreach programs
My readers have been so supportive of me in signing up for the premium content of this site, so I know many of you will
be excited about the chance to support such a worthy cause. Here's what I'm going to do. From now through Sunday night, everyone who donates
at least $20 to the Heart Walk will get a week of free access to Election Projection Premium Content starting Monday, September 25. If you're
interested, please visit
my donation page
and donate what you are able. (You must donate through this page to receive the week of free access.) Once you've donated, please email me
at thebloggingcaesar@electionprojection.com to let me know or be sure to enter a
valid email address on your donation form. Please help support the American Heart Association in this important endeavor. Thanks!
Update: I'm extending this offer for a week of free access until October 14th. The walk will be held on Sunday, October 15th, and
anyone who donates $20 or more will get their free week starting that day and running through Saturday, October 21st.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:30pm 09/21/06
Link to this post
Happy birthday, Mom!
Jean Dover Elliott would have been 61 today.
It's been 2 1/2 years. In some ways it seems like yesterday, in others like a lifetime. Even though she's gone home, I have the joy of
all the memories. And when the pain of loss builds to a crescendo as it still does from time to time, I imagine her happiness in the presence of
Jesus and I'm reminded that one day we will be reunited. How comforting! How awesome! Enjoy your reward, Mom. I love you very
much.
[For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my mother was killed along with my father
and two others in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004. They were on a
humanitarian mission to bring aid
to the suffering and needy people there. My parents spent the previous 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels through which
the love of God changed countless lives.
Here is a short tribute to her I posted on her birthday that year...
She had such a warmth about her. The love of Christ was so evident in her life. I love her
dearly and miss her terribly. I long to hear her voice and feel her embrace. But, I take comfort
in knowing that she is unimaginably content right now in the arms of her Savior. And I will see her again
when my tasks on this earth are done. Mom, thank you so much for loving me, for raising me to know right
from wrong, and, most importantly, for teaching me about Jesus.]
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:05am 09/21/06
Link to this post
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
Is it good news or bad news?
Yesterday, we saw three
Senate
polls released by Rasmussen which showed large
leads for the Democratic challengers to GOP-held seats. From those results, one might surmise the Democrats are really coming on strong.
Today, however, Gallup releases this poll in which the GOP base
appears somewhat fired up for perhaps the first time, President Bush's job approval climbs to the highest level of the year and the congressional
generic vote is a dead heat. These findings would indicate the GOP is experiencing a positive move heading toward the elections.
So which is it? We'll have to wait until the next round of similar polls to see which polling firm is off. Regardless, The Blogging Caesar
is standing by Edict #1 and Edict #2 - and
Edict #3 for that matter.
Hat Tip: Alex
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:30pm 09/19/06
Link to this post
Monday, September 18, 2006
Free preview weekend ends
The response has been great to Election Projection's free preview weekend. I hope everyone enjoyed seeing everything
Election Projection Premium Content has to offer. Now it's time to subscribe so you can continue having access to it all throughout the election
season, right through Election Day and beyond. Please "Name Your Price" and subscribe today!
The goal is 500 subscribers by the end of the day tomorrow (that's 3AM Wednesday EDT). As of this post, 463 people have signed up. All we
need are 37 more. Please help The Blogging Caesar reach this milestone. Thank you very much!
Update: As of 11:30am Tuesday, 13 have signed up - 24 to go.
Update2: As of 1:15pm, 17 have signed up - 20 to go.
Update3: As of 3:15pm, 21 have signed up - 16 to go. We're gonna need a big push this afternoon to make it.
Update4: As of 5:30pm, 26 have signed up - 11 to go. We're getting close! Two more will get us into single-digits.
Update5: As of 7:15pm, 27 have signed up - 10 to go. Only ten more to go, but time is getting short.
Update6: As of 9:00pm, 31 have signed up - 6 to go. Six hours, six subscriptions away!
Update7: As of 10:45pm, 34 have signed up - 3 to go! C'mon, I can taste it!
Update8: As of 12:30am, 35 have signed up - 2 to go! Two more in 2 1/2 hours.
Update9: 500!! At 12:31am and 12:33am, I received subscriptions 499 and 500! Wow, thanks everyone! If you haven't signed up,
please go ahead - next stop 1000!
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/18/06
Link to this post
Election Projection promoters
Each week, as a thank you to the blogs out there who support Election Projection, I'm going to post a list of blogs who link
to the weekly projection update. If you have a blog and you link to the update, send me an email and I'll put you on
the list. Disclaimer: I reserve the right to omit websites with offensive or inappropriate material and I also reserve the right to
discontinue this effort if it becomes too much work.
These websites have linked to the projection update this week:
Update: I've moved the list of websites who link to the Weekly Projection Update to the right side bar where they will remain until
the next update is posted. Then I'll start the list all over again.
UPDATED by Scott Elliott at 8:10pm 09/18/06
Link to this post
Friday, September 15, 2006
Free preview weekend
The thought occurred to me that many of my readers might be interested in seeing just what's behind the subscriber wall here at
Election Projection before they choose to subscribe to Election Projection Premium Content. Well, here's your chance.
As you've probably read in the banner at the top of this page, I'm opening up all great information here at EP to everyone until Monday night.
The username and password "guest" will be a valid ticket to the premium content until then. Feel free to explore the
premium projections page and the pages for all 50 states. Any time your are presented with a password prompt,
just enter "guest" (no parenthesis) in both the username and password fields.
I'll hope that you'll enjoy the premium content and that you'll want to keep on enjoying it long after this weekend is over by getting a
"Name Your Price" subscription for yourself. And thank you so much for supporting Election Projection. Without
the generosity of my readers, this website couldn't continue providing the mountain of constantly-updated information found here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:35pm 09/15/06
Link to this post
Weekly Projection Update
We had a total of 10 11 race rating changes this last week, resulting in exactly zero change in the projected tallies of the Senate,
House, and governorships. There were some changing colors in the House races, however. The Democrats are now projected to pick up Arizona
CD-8 and Indiana CD-8, while the GOP offsets those losses with pick-ups in New York CD-24 and Virginia CD-2. Indiana CD-8 marks the third House
seat in that one state to go over the Democratic side of the aisle.
On the Senate side, everything is pretty much in a holding pattern right now. Only the high-profile contest in Maryland experienced a rating
change this week, and that was due more to the passing of the primary than to any real movement in the numbers. I should note that Lincoln Chafee's
easier-than-expected primary victory in Rhode Island over conservative GOPer Stephen Laffey prevented that race from landing permanently in the "Strong
DEM Gain" category.
The host of governor's races was not quite as calm as the Senate, but the movement, for the most part, reflected a firming of the lead for the
incumbent party. The lone exception was in Maryland where Republican Robert Ehrlich's continued occupancy in the governor's mansion has been
precarious at best all year long. His outlook is slightly better after the primaries as that contest has changed from Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM
Gain. Maryland is shaping up to be a very interesting state in 2006, especially considering its strong Democratic tendencies.
The next update will be next Friday, Sept. 22. If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state
election information, check out Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program and join over 400 other
Election Projection readers who've already named their price.
Projected Tally
Senate
This week: 52 GOP, 46 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +2, GOP -3, IND +1
Same count as last week
House
This week: 222 GOP, 213 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +11, GOP -10, IND -1
Same count as last week
Governorships
This week: 21 GOP, 29 DEM -
DEM +7, GOP -7
Same count as last week
New Race Tracking
Arizona - Governor, CD-8
Delaware - Senate
Maryland - Senate, Governor
Minnesota - Governor, CD-6
New York - Senate, Governor, CD-24, CD-29
Rhode Island - Senate
Vermont - Senate, Governor
Wisconsin - Senate, Governor, CD-8
Race Rating Changes
Tuesday
Virginia CD-2 -
Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
Wednesday
Arizona CD-8 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Maryland Senate -
Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Maryland Governor -
Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
New York CD-24 -
Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
New York CD-29 -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
Wisconsin Governor -
Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Thursday
Indiana CD-8 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Friday
Florida Governor -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
Kansas Governor -
Mod DEM Hold to Strong DEM Hold
Nevada Governor -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
updated by Scott Elliott at 9:00pm 09/15/06
Link to this post
Daily Poll Report
American Research Group
Vermont Senate:
Sanders(I) 55%, Tarrant(R) 40%
Vermont Governor:
Douglas(R) 59%, Parker(D) 32%
Vermont CD-1:
Welch(D) 48%, Rainville(R) 45%
The Detroit News
Michigan Governor:
Granholm(D) 50%, DeVos(R) 42%
Rasmussen
Missouri Senate:
McCaskill(D) 45%, Talent(R) 42%
Virginia Senate:
Allen(R) 50%, Webb(D) 43%
SurveyUSA
Florida Senate:
Nelson(D) 53%, Harris(R) 38%
Florida Governor:
Crist(R) 49%, Davis(D) 41%
Kansas Governor:
Sebelius(D) 58%, Barnett(R) 38%
Missouri Senate:
McCaskill(D) 48%, Talent(R) 47%
State Page Updates
Florida |
Kansas |
Michigan |
Missouri |
Vermont |
Virginia
posted by Scott Elliott at 2:50pm 09/15/06
Link to this post
Rightroots Blogburst
My friends in the right blogosphere are trying to raise funds for GOP candidates. The current push is to get 100
donations for each of the 21 candidates on the RightRoots roster by September 20. If you can help, please visit
the Rightroots website and chip in.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:50pm 09/15/06
Link to this post
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Carolina FreedomNet 2006
This is an event that I am extremely excited about.
If you've ever wanted to meet the men and women behind the blogs you visit, this is your chance. Sponsored by the John Locke Foundation, Carolina
FreedomNet 2006 is a half-day North Carolina blogger conference in Greensboro, NC on Saturday, October 7.
The event is geared toward bloggers and anyone who has interest in the growth of blogging and its impact on our political environment. Two morning
interactive sessions with well-known North Carolina blogger panelists will be followed by lunch. During lunch, keynote speaker Scott Johnson of
the wildly-popular Powerline blog will deliver a speech entitled "The 61st Minute: Inside the Eye of
Hurricane Dan". Registration is open to the public, and you are welcome to attend.
The first panel, "Local vs. Global: What Should Be Your Blog’s Focus?", will feature my distant cousin Lorie Byrd of
Wizbang, Greensboro's Sam Hieb of Sam's Notes, Charlotte's
Sister Toldjah and Raleigh's Bob Owens of Confederate
Yankee.
The second panel, "How Has The Blogging Phenomenon Affected Politics and Political Discourse?", will include
Townhall.com's Mary Katharine Ham, Jeff Taylor of Charlotte's
The Meck Deck, Durham's Josh Manchester of
The Adventures of Chester, and yours truly of..well..you know..Election
Projection!
That's right, I'll be there as a panelist, and I'm looking forward to meeting you there, too. It's only $25; so please come. If you are
able to attend, I'd love to shake your hand so do introduce yourself. By the way, Mrs. Blogging Caesar will be there with me.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:50pm 09/09/06
Link to this post
Super Tuesday, September 12
A whopping total of 9 primaries will be held this Tuesday, making it the clear "Super Tuesday" of the mid-terms. Be sure
to check Election Projection. I will post a link to websites where the results will be posted as soon as I can Tuesday morning. For those
keeping score, here are the states holding primary elections that day:
Arizona - We'll finally know who will compete for retiring Congressman Jim Kolbe's seat. This is a good pick-up opportunity for the
Democrats.
Delaware - Not much happening here.
Maryland - I'm excited about initiating tracking on both statewide races here. They are among the most intriguing in the nation.
I'm especially looking forward to seeing polling data for the Senate race once Michael Steele's opponent is determined.
Minnesota - Is Gov. Pawlenty vulnerable or not? That will begin to become clear after the primaries here.
New Hampshire - Not much happening here. But after the primaries, if the two GOP-held House seats here become competitive (Charlie Cook
rates them "Lean GOP"), it could be a long night for Republicans.
New York - Will Tasini pull an upset?
Rhode Island - The marquis primary race in the nation will be decided here as Lincoln Chafee tries to fend off a major conservative
challenge from Mayor Stephen Laffey.
Vermont - Bernie Sanders will do something he's never done before and probably will never do again - run as a Democrat and then refuse the
nomination.
Wisconsin - Interesting races in the general election. Not much happening in the primaries.
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:50am 09/09/06
Link to this post
Friday, September 8, 2006
Weekly Projection Update
Every Friday from now until the election, I'll be posting updates for all the Senate, gubernatorial, and House races I'm
tracking. Each update will include the new projection tally for the House, the Senate, and the Governorships. It will also include a list
of all race rating changes that occured over the course of the previous week as well as any races for which I've initiated tracking. Finally, time
permiting, I'll post a brief commentary on the current state of these exciting and pivotal mid-term elections.
This week we've seen quite a bit of movement, especially in the House. Constituent Dynamics released a score of House polls which enabled us, for
the first time, to quantify the mood of the electorate in many closely-held House districts. The numbers do look good for the Democrats at the
moment. However, the answer from these results to the big question - Will the Democrats take the House? - is a definite maybe. As more
polls come in and pundits revise their prognositications, the bundle of Democratic takeovers in the House increases - they've risen 3 more seats this
week. We'll just have to see if the movement will continue long enough to prove majority-making.
In the Senate, Tennessee is beginning to look like a real horserace, and New Jersey's Democratic machine looks like it will have to be running on all
cylinders in order to keep the GOP from winning a seat there for the first time in several decades. If the Democrats can score a blue flush
with the big 5 GOP Senate races - MO, MT, OH, PA, and RI - then Tennessee will become a key battleground, representing the final contest in the race
for a majority in the Senate. However, if Menendez in New Jersey falls deeper into trouble, his GOP opponent, Tom Kean, Jr. may sneak a red pick-up
into the deck. That would make it necessary for the Dems to carry Virginia to win the Senate.
The statehouses remained mostly unchanged this week - except for the flip-flopping gubernatorial race in Rhode Island. Indicating how truly
competitive this race is, the projected winner seems to change with every poll released.
Projected Tally
Senate
This week: 52 GOP, 46 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +2, GOP -3, IND +1
Last week: 51 GOP, 47 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +3, GOP -4, IND +1
House
This week: 222 GOP, 213 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +11, GOP -10, IND -1
Last week: 225 GOP, 210 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +8, GOP -7, IND -1
Governorships
This week: 21 GOP, 29 DEM -
DEM +7, GOP -7
Last week: 22 GOP, 28 DEM -
DEM +6, GOP -6
New Race Tracking
Florida Senate
Initial projection: Bill Nelson +19.5 - Strong Dem Hold
Florida Governor
Initial projection: Charlie Crist +4.4 - Weak GOP Hold
Pennsylvania CD-10
Initial projection: Don Sherwood +1.7 - Weak GOP Hold
Race Rating Changes
Monday
Kansas Governor -
Strong DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Iowa Governor -
Mod DEM Hold to Weak DEM Hold
Tuesday
Rhode Island Governor -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Wednesday
New Jersey Senate -
Weak DEM Hold to Weak GOP Gain
Thursday
Connecticut CD-2 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Iowa CD-3 -
Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
North Carolina CD-11 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Ohio CD-6 -
Weak DEM Hold to Mod DEM Hold
Pennsylvania CD-8 -
Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold
Pennsylvania CD-10 -
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
Virginia CD-2 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Friday
Tennessee Senate -
Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/08/06
Link to this post
Daily Poll Report
Arizona Daily Star
Arizona CD-8:
Giffords(D) 46%, Graf(R) 36%
Giffords(D) 42%, Huffman(R) 39%
Weiss(D) 46%, Graf(R) 36%
Huffman(R) 42%, Weiss(D) 41%
Arizona CD-8 (primaries):
DEM: Giffords(D) 46%, Weiss(D) 29%, Latas(D) 5%
GOP: Graf(R) 33%, Huffman(R) 25%, Hellon(R) 10%, Antenori(R) 3%
WNBC/Marist Poll
New York Senate:
Clinton(D) 62%, Spencer(R) 32%
Clinton(D) 62%, McFarland(R) 31%
New York Governor:
Spitzer(D) 67%, Faso(R) 21%
New York Senate (primaries):
DEM: Clinton(D) 88%, Tasini(D) 10%
GOP: Spencer(R) 39%, McFarland(R) 16%
New York Governor (primaries):
DEM: Spitzer(D) 79%, Souzzi(D) 14%
Rasmussen
Tennessee Senate:
Corker(R) 45%, Ford(D) 44%
Tennessee Governor:
Bredesen(D) 58%, Bryson(R) 31%
Alaska Governor:
Palin(R) 52%, Knowles(D) 38%
Research 2000
Wisconsin Governor:
Doyle(D) 49%, Green(R) 40%
Siena Research Institute
New York Senate (primaries):
DEM: Clinton(D) 78%, Tasini(D) 16%
New York Governor (primaries):
DEM: Spitzer(D) 72%, Souzzi(D) 15%
State Page Updates
Alaska |
Florida |
Tennessee
posted by Scott Elliott at 7:30pm 09/08/06
Link to this post
Thursday, September 7, 2006
Subscriber update
Let me say thank you to everyone who has subscribed over the last week to Election Projection Premium Content. My experiment
of letting readers set their own price and send in whatever they can so that as many people as possible will have access to all the information on this
website is working. As of this morning, well over 200 people have signed up. If you haven't, please do so. You can read all about
the benefits of a subscription by clicking here.
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:55am 09/06/06
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Tuesday, September 5, 2006
Florida primaries today
Primary elections will be held today in Florida. You can view the results here
starting this evening after polls close. Polls close at 7pm EDT...except in the panhandle, where polls will close at 7pm CDT (that's 8pm EDT).
Update: Florida Masochist is live-blogging the
primary today.
Update2: Link to primary results has been fixed.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:10am 09/05/06
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Monday, September 4, 2006
Season opener: Senate roundup
The weather in my neighborhood is awesome today. Low humidity, beautiful skies, mild temperatures. It's September, and
you know what that means. It's time to get the season started! Oh, you thought I was talking about football? I'm talking politics,
baby! Time to kick off the election season in earnest.
Traditionally, most people don't turn their attention to mid-term elections until after Labor Day. So, I thought now would be a good time
to take a look at the races on tap this year. Today, we'll start with the Senate races. Look for a rundown
of the governor's races in a few days.
Click here for the lowdown on all 33 Senate races.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:55pm 09/03/06
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Friday, September 1, 2006
Pardon the sluggish afternoon
Loading Election Projection was a hit or miss proposition this afternoon for many of you. I had trouble accessing it for
a couple hours there, so I wasn't able to post the Daily Poll Report until this evening. All seems to be back to normal now, though.
Response to EP's "Name Your Price" subscription program has been strong with just over 100 of you signing up so far.
Let me say a hearty "Thank You" to all who have contributed. If you haven't received your welcome email yet, you will shortly.
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:35pm 09/01/06
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