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  Archives:   September, 2007

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Sunday, September 30, 2007

Introducing a new Sunday feature at Election Projection

Today I'm initiating a new feature here at Election Projection.  I've named it "Devotional Messages from The Blogging Caesar."  These short, weekly devotionals will not be a part of this blog; instead, they will be posted on a subdomain of Election Projection.  I will simply announce here when a new one is posted and provide a link to it.

The first devotional entitled "Walk by faith" is up.  You can read it at http://www.devotions.electionprojection.com.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:35am 09/30/07
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Friday, September 28, 2007

More good news from Iraq

Last week, I published a post about the ebbing violence in Iraq.  It was, of course, discounted and downplayed by the liberal commenters on this site.  Why should we trust a military man's analysis of the situation?  He is nothing but a mouthpiece for the Bush administration  That was their reasoning in part.  Well, today I stumbled across more good news.
Rep. John Kline, returning from his fifth trip to Iraq, said Tuesday he saw "amazing" progress in the security situation there, and a sense of normalcy returning among Iraqi people.

Kline, R-Minn., traveled to Iraq and Afghanistan over the weekend as part of a bipartisan House Armed Services Committee trip led by Rep. Neil Abercrombie, D-Hawaii.

Kline, who has been a supporter of President Bush's Iraq policy, said he was particularly impressed with the improved security in the Anbar province capital of Ramadi.

"The security situation there is just truly amazing.  Just amazing," he said in a telephone interview.  Kline said the Marine battalion commander there told the lawmakers that violence is way down.

"One of the great advantages of going is you can look and get a sense of what the atmosphere is," Kline said. "People are going about their business, the shops are open, they're walking around the street."

Kline said the lawmakers were greeted by children who laughed, teased and asked for money.  Adults smiled and gave the thumbs up.

"Just a sense of normalcy — people getting on with their lives," he said.

Oh wait, that's a Republican congressman - just another mouthpiece for the Bush administration.  Actually, the article continues..
The take by Kline, a conservative Republican, was similar to one by the state's liberal Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison, who visited Ramadi in July. In that trip, Ellison noted that people were walking the streets of the city, going to the market, and he had commented on the "general level of respect and calm that I thought was good."
This is the state's "liberal Democrat."  If you conclude the situation is in reality somewhere between the muted approval of Ellison and the enthusiastic optimism of Kline, you have to find it hard to say things aren't improving - and improving significantly.  More reasons to be glad if you're rooting for peace and stability to win the day over there.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:45pm 09/28/07
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Thursday, September 27, 2007

Fred Smith for North Carolina Governor

Yesterday was a blast.  Leia and I experienced some wonderful southern hospitality at the home of North Carolina State Senator Fred Smith and his charming wife, Ginny.  We were treated to an awesome concert on the lawn by Lee Greenwood and got to hear him in a more intimate setting beforehand at the piano in the Smiths' living room.  The only regret I have is that with all the festivities and people to meet, we didn't get around to sampling the great food available to all the guests.  In fact, the only thing we had to eat was a couple bags of chips.

The first part of the event was a blogger press conference.  Several of North Carolina's prominent bloggers were there, and we each had the opportunity to question Senator Smith.  Lorie Byrd of Wizbang! and Townhall.com - and my distant cousin - is working with the Fred Smith campaign and did a wonderful job coordinating this segment of the event.  The bloggers in attendance were Bob Owens, aka Confederate Yankee, Sarah, who blogs at trying to grok and SpouseBuzz, a group blog by military wives, the Civitas Institute's Jameson Taylor who writes for Civitas' blog, Red Clay Citizen, Rob Boyce of Rob Boyce.com, and Dean Stephens of various blogs including Inner Banks Eagle.  Several have posted reactions to the event, so be sure to check out their fine blogs.  Also there was Brandon Winters who works with Nathan Tabor at The Conservative Voice.

During the questioning, I was impressed by Senator Smith's straightforward candor and no-holds-barred responses to our questions.  I started things off with a question about the state lottery, recently forced through North Carolina's General Assembly.  Unfortunately, once lotteries are in place, they never seem to go away.  Sen. Smith pointed out that ours has also failed to meet monetary expectations and that the money collected has been diverted in large part to fund other aspects of state government aside from education.  While acknowledging the futility of any plan seeking to rescind the lottery, he spoke of his commitment, if elected governor, to see that all the proceeds go toward their intended use - education and, specifically, school construction.  Further, he said allotments should be based on a per-capita plan rather than the current plan which awards higher amounts to counties with higher tax rates.  In his view, that is just rewarding greater taxation.

I followed up my question by asking the senator if there is any way to avoid the underhanded tactics that ushered in the lottery in the first place.  His simple answer:  "win elections."  Without the power to control the General Assembly and its procedures, liberal Democrats would have been unable to get that issue past.  But how do we do that?  As the evening passed, it became crystal clear that Senator Smith has resolved to attempt to win his election by "drawing a line in the sand" as a true conservative and making no apologies for that.  To this blogger, still shaken and discouraged over the losses last November in many instances by Republicans afraid to stand on conservative values, Sen. Smith's message was wonderfully refreshing.

And when Lee Greenwood debuted "Good to great", the song he wrote for the Fred Smith campaign, I felt proud once again to be a Republican.  With all the bad aura hanging over the GOP these days, I don't know what it will take to stem the tide against us.  However, if anything will, in my view, it will be the kind of true conservative stand Fred Smith is taking on the campaign trail this election season.  Before I went to the event yesterday, I wasn't sure who I would support in the GOP primary for the gubernatorial nomination.  I don't know how far his conservative stand will take him, but I do know I have now found my candidate for governor of North Carolina - State Senator Fred Smith.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:25pm 9/27/07
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Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Blogger's cap on, I'm off to a fundraiser

Mrs. Blogging Caesar and I have been invited to a celebration and fundraising event at the home of North Carolina State Senator Fred Smith.  Sen. Smith is running for governor of our fine state.  The special guest there will be Lee Greenwood ("God bless the USA").  I'll have reactions to the event later.  I'm looking forward to a press conference with both Sen. Smith and Mr. Greenwood, followed by a reception and then a concert on the lawn by Mr. Greenwood.

posted by Scott Elliott at 3:00pm 09/26/07
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Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Money troubles for the GOP

An article out today over at Politico.com relates more problems the GOP is facing in an already gloomy political climate.  This time it's poor fundraising in critical House districts.  The heap of bad news just keeps getting bigger and bigger.
Top Republicans are privately bracing for the possibility that they could lose additional House seats in next year's elections as a result of untimely retirements, ongoing scandals and unexpectedly gloomy fundraising forecasts, according to several members and aides.
Long a strong suit for the GOP, the ability to raise cash is now looking more and more like a liability.

posted by Scott Elliott at 3:20pm 09/25/07
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Monday, September 24, 2007

Poll:  What do you think about Affirmative Action?

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Affirmative Action programs attempt to "level the playing field" for minorities and provide them with more equitable opportunities.  As time has progressed, some have begun to call for the elimination of these programs.  Others think they are still needed.   Still others wish they had never been instituted in the first place.  Where do you stand?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote and feel free to discuss it here.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:15am 09/24/07
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Friday, September 21, 2007

Jean Dover Elliott, born September 21, 1945

Taken home March 15, 2004Happy Birthday, Mom!  I love you soooo much, and I can't wait to see you again.

posted by Scott Elliott at 2:15pm 09/21/07
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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Violence in Iraq at 18-month low

Some good news from Iraq to report.  Don't interpret this to mean I think all is rosy over there - it plainly isn't.  However, since I really want victory and stability and peace in Iraq, I can't help but be encouraged by this article.
Violence across Iraq has fallen to its lowest level since before the bombing of a Shiite mosque in February 2006 that sparked savage sectarian bloodletting, a US military commander said on Thursday.

There has also been a 50 percent fall-off in violence in Baghdad since January, Lieutenant General Ray Odierno, the number two commander of US-led forces in Iraq, told a press conference in Baghdad.

"Attacks nationwide have fallen to the lowest level since before the Golden Mosque bombing," he said, referring to a bombing which destroyed the revered shrine in Samarra and unleashed a relentless wave of reprisals and counter-reprisals across Iraq that has already killed thousands of Iraqis.

"Car bombs and suicide attacks have dropped to their lowest level in a year," Odierno said. "Attacks in Baghdad have reached the lowest level this year and the trend continues to be down."

Wouldn't it be great if our troops could come home after actually winning?  What an awesome day that would be!  I know, I know, we - and more importantly, the Iraqi government - have a long, long way to go.  Tell me, though, doesn't this give you a bit of excitement?
"Al-Qaeda in Iraq is increasingly being pushed out of Baghdad and the surrounding areas," he said. "We are starting to see a normalisation of life across Iraq and also in Baghdad."
May the trends toward victory and peace continue!

Hat tip: The Ace

Update:  Some folks in the comment thread have stated that this really isn't good news (I expected that).  A couple have asserted that, though attacks have gone down, civilian casualties have risen.  To quote the article I linked to above...
Civilian casualties had dropped from a high of about 32 per day to 12 per day, the US commander said.
Twelve per day is certainly still not acceptable, but, again, it is an improvement - and it is good news.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:05m 09/20/07
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Political Calendar 2008

I've posted next year's Political Calendar complete with all the primary dates as they currently stand.  So far we have no less than eighteen states which have scheduled or tentatively scheduled their primaries for February 5th - next year's "Super Tuesday" without a doubt!  I'm hoping you, my readers, will help me keep this calendar as up-to-date and accurate as possible.  If you see any developments regarding primary dates that aren't reflected on the calendar or other important dates that should be included, please let me know.  Thanks!

I'll be posting the national convention dates soon.

posted by Scott Elliott at 6:05pm 09/20/07
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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

The sad state of American politics

With an approval rating in the mid to high 30's, President Bush is not enjoying a lot of popularity these days.  Congress' approval numbers are even worse.  So just how bad is it in American politics?  Today I ran across this remarkable poll result Rasmussen recently published.  The survey asked participants if they would "definitely vote for" or "definitely vote against" the major candidates for president.  Of the seven main contenders - Clinton, Giuliani, Thompson, Obama, McCain, Edwards, and Romney - ALL SEVEN possess a DOUBLE-DIGIT deficit.  The top three in this dismal measurement were Clinton, Giuliani, and Thompson.  And all even they could achieve was a net -12 rating, meaning 12 percent more people said they would definitely NOT vote for the candidate than said they definitely would.

What a sad statement!  When we cannot field one single person from either party who generates more positive passion than negative - not even close, in fact - something is greatly amiss, I think, in our national psyche.  Perhaps it is a function the proliferation of non-stop mudslinging and character assassination; or perhaps this country is just not producing the kinds of statesmen and women we can be proud of anymore; ... or perhaps we just really needed an election off-season after all.  I wonder what the numbers would look like now if an election-weary electorate had been given a year-long respite from political campaign ads and debates.  As alluded to in the title of this website for 2007, I think we all could have used an "intermission!"

As a postscript, Mitt Romney fared the worst with a full 40% saying they definitely would not vote for him versus only 16% who said they definitely would vote for him.  This is probably the clearest and truest indication yet of the effect Romney's Mormonism has on the electorate.

posted by Scott Elliott at 5:30pm 09/19/07
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Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Petraeus may be the right man

Thomans Sowell has written a review of John Agresto's new book titled "Mugged by Reality, The Liberation of Iraq and the Failure of Good Intentions".  The writer, says Sowell, doesn't
take the Bush administration line, the Congressional Democrats' line or anybody else's line.
Instead he offers a refreshingly objective view of the transpiring of events there over the last few years.  Sowell writes of Agresto:
Initially a supporter of the invasion, he now says that he would not have been a supporter if he had known beforehand how the occupation would be mishandled and the results that followed. But he also recognizes that we cannot unring the bell and simply leave, for that would lead to even worse consequences, not only in Iraq but elsewhere, not only to others but to ourselves.
What I thought was most intriguing - and potentially encouraging - was his assessment of General Patraeus' role early in the aftermath of Saddam's fall.
General David Petraeus is mentioned only a couple of times, and briefly, in "Mugged by Reality."  But those brief mentions seem to be revealing.

Right after the success of military operations in Iraq, General Petraeus' 101st Airborne had control of the city of Mosul.  According to Agresto, "he ran it in radically different ways than the rest of Iraq was run" - and Mosul was "calm" in contrast to other parts of Iraq.

Then, after control of Mosul was passed on to others, it "began to rival the worst sections of Baghdad for attacks on Coalition forces and violence against Iraqis."

One of the ways in which Petraeus ran Mosul differently from the way things were done in the rest of Iraq, according to Agresto, was not to get rid of existing public officials wholesale, despite their being members of the former ruling Baath Party.

Somebody has to run the basic institutions that make civilized life possible - and you can't just get rid of those who know how to run those institutions before you have someone qualified to replace them.  Apparently General Petraeus was pragmatic enough to understand that.

That man now has charge of all our operations in Iraq.  If he can be as effective nationally as he was in Mosul, we may very well be on the road to a stable and relatively peaceful end over there.  Of course, I really want that to happen, so I'm willing to attach my optimism to any promising development.  Nevertheless, as Sowell concludes,
We may, belatedly, have found a man and an approach that work.
I pray it is not too belatedly.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:00am 09/18/07
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Monday, September 17, 2007

Poll:  Who can beat Hillary?

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  Last week I surmised that a Hillary nomination is a foregone conclusion on the Democratic side.  The story, I said, is much different on the GOP side.  This week's poll is not about choosing who you think will win the GOP nomination.  Rather, it asks you who you think would have the best chance of besting Hillary in the general election.  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote - even if you think no GOPer has a prayer against her.  And as always, feel free to discuss it here.

posted by Scott Elliott at 9:30am 09/17/07
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Friday, September 14, 2007

Democrats enjoy a great recruiting week

The chance of the GOP regaining control in the Senate went from not good to very bad this week.  In two different states, the Democrats saw their best hopes decide to enter hotly-contested Senate races.  No one could present more formidable challenges to GOP seats in Virginia and New Hampshire than Mark Warner and Jeanne Shaheen, respectively.  Both races must now be considered golden pick-up opportunities for the Dems.  And if former senator Bob Kerrey decides to contest for Chuck Hagel's open seat in Nebraska, they would gain the trifecta.  It's a good time, indeed, to be on the blue side of the aisle.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:30pm 09/14/07
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Thursday, September 13, 2007

Early thoughts on the Democratic race

Yesterday I looked at the race for the GOP nomination.  Unlike that race where the eventual winner seems to be very difficult to discern at this point, the Democratic race is a bit easier to gauge.  Hillary has been the heir-apparent since the beginning, and I see no reason to strip her of that designation now.

Early on, Barak Obama made some waves and probably sent a scare through the Clinton camp.  However, his initial strong showing now appears to have been the residual effects of his marvelous speech at the 2004 Democratic convention.  Always eloquent in his delivery, he has nevertheless faltered some under the scrutiny of real life campaign issues such as national security.  In my opinion, Hillary has weathered the upstart's threat and has now distanced herself from him.

The tight polling data coming out of Iowa doesn't dissuade me from being pretty confident about her chances.  John Edwards has put everything into a good showing in Iowa.  He has practically lived there since deciding to get in the 2008 race.  As a result, his support there is strong and appears to be draining support away from Hillary much more than from Obama.  For Edwards to have any staying power at all in this primary season, he will probably have to win Iowa.  (And I don't believe even that will be enough.)  Beyond Iowa, you start to see Hillary's real strength.  She has a commanding lead in New Hampshire and is well ahead in other early primary states.  And she boasts a nearly 2-1 advantage over Obama nationally.  Add to that the Clinton political machine, and I think you have an unbeatable equation.

So, look for Edwards to make noise in Iowa - but come in second to Hillary - and then mostly disappear in New Hampshire with perhaps a small bump in South Carolina.  Edwards won't be a factor after that.  Then there's Obama.  He'll probably make a game of it early, but it won't take long until Hillary's numbers begin to swamp him.  We should be pretty certain soon after the primaries begin that Hillary indeed deserves the heir-apparent mantle.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:05pm 09/13/07
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Wednesday, September 12, 2007

Early thoughts on the GOP race

In former presidential election cycles, the polls to watch were state polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.  National surveys before the first primary have not been good indicators of the races to come - except where they agreed with the polls in the early primary states.  More than anything, the fight for the nomination is a matter of momentum.  Poor showings in early primaries doomed both Richard Gephardt and Howard Dean last time around.  I documented this in February, 2004.  Those numbers are worth revisiting...
Here are the numbers in California from a field poll a week before Iowa:
    Dean 25%, Clark 20%, Kerry 7%, Edwards 3%

Contrast those with a Survey USA poll conducted a few days after New Hampshire:

    Kerry 49%, Dean 18%, Edwards 12%, Clark 8%
If history is any indication, Mitt Romney is looking very strong and Hillary Clinton has a real battle on her hands.  Romney leads by double-digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire, while Hillary is ahead by a scant few points.  Dick Morris has written an interesting take on the situation.  It is worth reading to get a better picture of the factors pushing the numbers right now.  At this point, nothing should be taken for granted - we are, after all, still 4 months away from the start of the primaries - and with other states stepping over each other to gain more prominence by pushing their primary dates up, anything can happen.  Well, except for Ron Paul getting the GOP nomination, perhaps.

If you looking for an early trend, I'd point to Romney's diminishing lead in Iowa.  By the time the election year actually starts, look for both Guiliani and Thompson to be chomping at Romney's heels.  In the end, I don't like Romney's chances.  In the darkhorse category, I agree with Morris that Mike Huckabee is definitely the one to watch among the second-tier candidates.  Who knows?  We've seen a Southern Baptist governor come out of nowhere before.  With so many variables still in play and so much time left before things even begin, The Blogging Caesar is not yet ready to even venture a guess as to who will win the nomination.  But don't worry, as soon as I perceive a favorite, I'll let you know.

Tomorrow - early thoughts on the Democratic race

posted by Scott Elliott at 2:35pm 09/12/07
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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Six years ago

I remember getting ready for work this day six years ago.  Somehow I learned that a plane had hit the World Trade Center in New York City.  For the rest of the day, I remained cemented in front of the television, fixated on the images broadcast into my living room.  I saw the second plane find its target.  And I saw the first tower fall before the TV announcers knew what happened.  When the second tower fell, my shock and awe turned to a wave of grief, and I cried out loud.

I remember in the ensuing days and weeks the awesome sense of American pride and brotherhood that swept this nation.  Old Glory was flying from car window after car window, road rage was temporarily suspended, replaced by patriotic courtesy, and the National Anthem touched our hearts more than it had since World War II.  It was, for a brief period, wonderful to experience these United States truly united in spirit and in resolve to meet and conquer the strong, violent threat that awaited us.

But that unity was short-lived.  Before too long, road rage was back, and it was politics as usual in Washington.  What a shame!  I don't want to place any blame on why we lost what we had - not today.  I just want to remember what it was like before the freshness of the events of 9/11 wore off.  I've always been proud to be an American, and I imagine I always will be.  For a few months after September 11, 2001, however, I was never more proud.  In my lifetime, without a doubt, it was America's finest hour.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:05am 09/11/07
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Monday, September 10, 2007

Poll:  When will they hit us again?

The latest edition of Election Projection's Weekly Poll is up.  It was six years ago this week that terrorists attacked America.  During that time, no additional attacks have been carried out on American soil.  How long do you think it will be before they attack us again?  The poll is located in the right sidebar.  Please be sure to cast your vote and discuss it here.

Update:  I have taken comments down from the above post.  I was hoping the conversation would be about where people were on 9/11 and a celebration of our nation.  I understand it is hard be reflective and emotional about that period of time while not interjecting comments about how and why things have changed.  For that reason, I designate this thread as the place to vent about what went wrong.  If you posted a comment in the above thread that you don't want to be missed, send me an email.  I have kept them and will send them to you upon request.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:30am 09/10/07
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Thursday, September 6, 2007

The GOP debate...and Thompson's entry

The eight previously-declared candidates for the GOP presidential nomination squared off for another debate last night in New Hampshire.  I was unable to watch, but I wanted to give this audience a chance to weigh in on it.  Who do you think won?  Why?  Who fared the worst?  And finally, what effect do you think Fred Thompson's official entry into the fray will have on the eventual outcome?

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:05am 09/06/07
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Wednesday, September 5, 2007

The new battleground state

In the presidential election of 2000, Florida dominated the scene as the premier battleground state.  In 2004, Ohio took its turn at the head that year's class of toss ups.  All the while, the solid south faithfully and overwhelmingly voted for the GOP ticket.  That may change next year.  Demographic ebb and flow constantly change the political landscape, and nowhere is that shift more evident than in Virginia.  As more and more folks move into the heavily populated districts between Richmond and Washington DC, Virginia's political hue has become more and more purple.

1964 was the last time Virginia voted Democrat in the presidential election, and neither Jimmy Carter nor Bill Clinton, both southerners, could take the state.  However, President Bush's margins of victory in 2000 and 2004 were virtually unchanged here even though he gained a full 3 percent nationally from 2000 to 2004.  Add to that George Allen's surprising (dare I say shocking) defeat in 2006 and it isn't hard to see Virginia falling into the Democratic column next year.  For sure, it will be a barn burner.  No doubt Ohio, with its 21 electoral votes, will remain the focus of most battleground analyses, but certainly Virginia's 13 electoral votes must be considered up for grabs as well.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:10am 09/05/07
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Tuesday, September 4, 2007

I'm baa-aack!

Summer has unofficially ended; vacation has been taken; the doldrums are gone.  The Blogging Caesar is BACK!  I'll be getting back into regular posting now.  So, look for something new "pert near" every day from now on.  Thanks for sticking around.

posted by Scott Elliott at 11:05am 09/04/07
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