Update:  Unfortunately, it looks like Crosstabs.org is down.  I do hope they get back up and running soon.  It's a great website, and it would be a shame to lose it.

Update2:  Crosstabs is back up now.

On the Senate side, things are remarkably stable, even boring, considering all the news being made by so many on Capitol Hill.  Since Tom Kean moved ahead of Robert Menendez in New Jersey back on September 6th, not one seat has changed hands.  Two seats, including the one in New Jersey, are razor close right now and could flip at any time.  Kean's projected margin is only 1.9% and Bob Corker's hold on Tennessee's open Senate seat is a scant 0.1%.  (Projected margins for all tracked races are available to subscribers.)

In the races for the nation's statehouses, we've seen a lot of changes this week, but not of the color-changing variety.  Instead, many of last week's leaders have solidified their advantages.  It is interesting to note that no less than 4 gubernatorial contests are now rated "Strong DEM Gain".  In fact, of the 36 on tap in November, only 6 currently fall in the "Weak" category.

The next update will be next Friday, Oct. 6.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state election information, check out Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program and sign up today.

Projected Tally

Notes:
  Maryland Senate:  Michael Steele is faring well against Ben Cardin in the first week after primaries here.  The Republican even polls ahead of Cardin in one poll released this week.  A Steele victory would all but end the Democrats dream of taking the Senate.  However, The Blogging Caesar is unwilling to predict that outcome.  I still believe Cardin is ahead in this race by a few points and will win in November - notice this is not an "Edict", though.
  Pennsylvania Governor:  Unlike his African-American colleague in Maryland, GOPer Lynn Swann is having a monstrous hard time gaining any traction with his candidacy.  This race, once a close duel with the markings of a nail-biter, is now all but over.  Democratic incumbent Ed Rendell is dominating this race and would probably get within a point or two of 60% of the vote if the election were held today.
  Virginia Senate:  This race tightened considerably after George Allen's "macaca" remark.  That tightening seems to have ended, though, and I expect Allen's lead to swell a bit soon from it current 5 or 6 point margin.  I just don't see him losing here.  It could be close enough to make the GOP sweat some on election night, but I doubt that Jim Webb will get any closer to Allen than he is right now.
  New Jersey Senate:  Here we go again.  Tom Kean is consistently polling ahead of Robert Menendez, giving the GOP reason for hope in this deep blue state.  But we've been through this song and dance before.  I'm not sure how many points ahead Kean would have to be for me to feel the GOP had a real shot at this one, but it is certainly more than 2 or 3, which is where the race stands now.

The next update will be next Friday, Sept. 29.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state election information, check out Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program and join over 500 other Election Projection readers who've already named their price.

Projected Tally

It's been 2 1/2 years.  In some ways it seems like yesterday, in others like a lifetime.  Even though she's gone home, I have the joy of all the memories.  And when the pain of loss builds to a crescendo as it still does from time to time, I imagine her happiness in the presence of Jesus and I'm reminded that one day we will be reunited.  How comforting!  How awesome!  Enjoy your reward, Mom.  I love you very much.

[For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my mother was killed along with my father and two others in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004.  They were on a humanitarian mission to bring aid to the suffering and needy people there.  My parents spent the previous 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels through which the love of God changed countless lives.

Here is a short tribute to her I posted on her birthday that year...

She had such a warmth about her.  The love of Christ was so evident in her life.  I love her dearly and miss her terribly.  I long to hear her voice and feel her embrace.  But, I take comfort in knowing that she is unimaginably content right now in the arms of her Savior.  And I will see her again when my tasks on this earth are done.  Mom, thank you so much for loving me, for raising me to know right from wrong, and, most importantly, for teaching me about Jesus.]

Today, however, Gallup releases this poll in which the GOP base appears somewhat fired up for perhaps the first time, President Bush's job approval climbs to the highest level of the year and the congressional generic vote is a dead heat.  These findings would indicate the GOP is experiencing a positive move heading toward the elections.

So which is it?  We'll have to wait until the next round of similar polls to see which polling firm is off.  Regardless, The Blogging Caesar is standing by Edict #1 and Edict #2 - and Edict #3 for that matter.

Hat Tip:  Alex

The goal is 500 subscribers by the end of the day tomorrow (that's 3AM Wednesday EDT).  As of this post, 463 people have signed up.  All we need are 37 more.  Please help The Blogging Caesar reach this milestone.  Thank you very much!

Update:  As of 11:30am Tuesday, 13 have signed up - 24 to go.
Update2:  As of 1:15pm, 17 have signed up - 20 to go.
Update3:  As of 3:15pm, 21 have signed up - 16 to go.  We're gonna need a big push this afternoon to make it.
Update4:  As of 5:30pm, 26 have signed up - 11 to go.  We're getting close! Two more will get us into single-digits.
Update5:  As of 7:15pm, 27 have signed up - 10 to go.  Only ten more to go, but time is getting short.
Update6:  As of 9:00pm, 31 have signed up - 6 to go.  Six hours, six subscriptions away!
Update7:  As of 10:45pm, 34 have signed up - 3 to go!  C'mon, I can taste it!
Update8:  As of 12:30am, 35 have signed up - 2 to go!  Two more in 2 1/2 hours. Update9:  500!! At 12:31am and 12:33am, I received subscriptions 499 and 500!  Wow, thanks everyone!  If you haven't signed up, please go ahead - next stop 1000!

These websites have linked to the projection update this week:

Update:  I've moved the list of websites who link to the Weekly Projection Update to the right side bar where they will remain until the next update is posted.  Then I'll start the list all over again.

The username and password "guest" will be a valid ticket to the premium content until then.  Feel free to explore the premium projections page and the pages for all 50 states.  Any time your are presented with a password prompt, just enter "guest" (no parenthesis) in both the username and password fields.

I'll hope that you'll enjoy the premium content and that you'll want to keep on enjoying it long after this weekend is over by getting a "Name Your Price" subscription for yourself.  And thank you so much for supporting Election Projection.  Without the generosity of my readers, this website couldn't continue providing the mountain of constantly-updated information found here.

On the Senate side, everything is pretty much in a holding pattern right now.  Only the high-profile contest in Maryland experienced a rating change this week, and that was due more to the passing of the primary than to any real movement in the numbers.  I should note that Lincoln Chafee's easier-than-expected primary victory in Rhode Island over conservative GOPer Stephen Laffey prevented that race from landing permanently in the "Strong DEM Gain" category.

The host of governor's races was not quite as calm as the Senate, but the movement, for the most part, reflected a firming of the lead for the incumbent party.  The lone exception was in Maryland where Republican Robert Ehrlich's continued occupancy in the governor's mansion has been precarious at best all year long.  His outlook is slightly better after the primaries as that contest has changed from Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain.  Maryland is shaping up to be a very interesting state in 2006, especially considering its strong Democratic tendencies.

The next update will be next Friday, Sept. 22.  If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, as well as reams of great state-by-state election information, check out Election Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program and join over 400 other Election Projection readers who've already named their price.

Projected Tally

Update:  After tonight, we'll only have four more primaries left.  With races in these nine states being added to the list of races I'm tracking, now is a great time to subscribe to Election Projection Premium Content.  It's the only "Name Your Price" subscription program I know of on a political website like mine.  Take a few moments to read about it by clicking here and sign up today!

Update2:  The link to New York's primary election results has been updated.

The event is geared toward bloggers and anyone who has interest in the growth of blogging and its impact on our political environment.  Two morning interactive sessions with well-known North Carolina blogger panelists will be followed by lunch.  During lunch, keynote speaker Scott Johnson of the wildly-popular Powerline blog will deliver a speech entitled "The 61st Minute: Inside the Eye of Hurricane Dan".  Registration is open to the public, and you are welcome to attend.

The first panel, "Local vs. Global: What Should Be Your Blog’s Focus?", will feature my distant cousin Lorie Byrd of Wizbang, Greensboro's Sam Hieb of Sam's Notes, Charlotte's Sister Toldjah and Raleigh's Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee.

The second panel, "How Has The Blogging Phenomenon Affected Politics and Political Discourse?", will include Townhall.com's Mary Katharine Ham, Jeff Taylor of Charlotte's The Meck Deck, Durham's Josh Manchester of The Adventures of Chester, and yours truly of..well..you know..Election Projection!

That's right, I'll be there as a panelist, and I'm looking forward to meeting you there, too.  It's only $25; so please come.  If you are able to attend, I'd love to shake your hand so do introduce yourself.  By the way, Mrs. Blogging Caesar will be there with me.

   

This week we've seen quite a bit of movement, especially in the House.  Constituent Dynamics released a score of House polls which enabled us, for the first time, to quantify the mood of the electorate in many closely-held House districts.  The numbers do look good for the Democrats at the moment.  However, the answer from these results to the big question - Will the Democrats take the House? - is a definite maybe.  As more polls come in and pundits revise their prognositications, the bundle of Democratic takeovers in the House increases - they've risen 3 more seats this week.  We'll just have to see if the movement will continue long enough to prove majority-making.

In the Senate, Tennessee is beginning to look like a real horserace, and New Jersey's Democratic machine looks like it will have to be running on all cylinders in order to keep the GOP from winning a seat there for the first time in several decades.  If the Democrats can score a blue flush with the big 5 GOP Senate races - MO, MT, OH, PA, and RI - then Tennessee will become a key battleground, representing the final contest in the race for a majority in the Senate.  However, if Menendez in New Jersey falls deeper into trouble, his GOP opponent, Tom Kean, Jr. may sneak a red pick-up into the deck.  That would make it necessary for the Dems to carry Virginia to win the Senate.

The statehouses remained mostly unchanged this week - except for the flip-flopping gubernatorial race in Rhode Island.  Indicating how truly competitive this race is, the projected winner seems to change with every poll released.

Projected Tally