What didn't happen last week has happened this week. For the first time since I began projecting the 2006 mid-term elections,
the Democrats are projected to take back the House. Following a slew of district polls highly-favorable to the Democrats, 7 races have flipped to
blue over the last week. In truth, these projections more closely reflect the prevailing winds of political punditry we are hearing across the
country.
I do think that, barring another October Surprise, we have hit bottom from a Republican perspective. With 19 GOP seats now painted
blue and 8 more within 2 points of going to the Democrats, that puts the bottom at 27. Right now, I see that as the maximum number of possible losses
the GOP could sustain. (The number could grow by two or three if everything goes right for the Democrats.)
On the other hand, only two GOP seats are projected to be lost by more than 4 points, and only 12 by more than 2 points. Clearly, the
fight for the House is up for grabs. The slightest move either way in the coming 22 days will make the difference, hightlighting once again the
importance of participation.
The Senate has moved barely back into GOP hands. Tennessee tilts to the red this week. With Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
looking less and less winnable, it appears the RNC has turned its eyes
(and its money) squarely on Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia. The GOP
must win two of these to maintain control of the upper chamber, if the others do indeed end up in the Democratic column.
Update: I've received an email from Patrick Ruffini stating that the New York Times article I just linked to is false.
He contends the RNC will continue funding the Ohio race at the same pace as before.
I've been confident Corker will pull out the race in Tennessee, especially since there is a marriage protection question on this year's ballot.
I remain so three weeks out from Election Day. Missouri has been a surprise to me, though. If the polls are to be believed, and that is a big
if, then McCaskill has a small but solid lead in that race. As I mentioned in my Senate roundup last month, this
race should prove to be a good indication of national trends on November 7.
Not much happening on the statehouse front. Michigan's Governor Jennifer Granholm did regain the lead in her race against Dick DeVos, providing
the only change this week in that category.
The next update is planned for Saturday, Oct. 21. If you'd like access to these changes on a daily basis, hurry and sign up for Election
Projection's "Name Your Price" subscription program. You'll get lots of great state-by-state information and daily
updates to all the races.
Projected Tally
Senate
This week: 50 GOP, 48 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +4, GOP -5, IND +1
Last week: 49 GOP, 49 DEM, 2 IND -
DEM +5, GOP -6, IND +1
House
This week: 213 GOP, 222 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +20, GOP -19, IND -1
Last week: 220 GOP, 215 DEM, 0 IND -
DEM +13, GOP -12, IND -1
Governorships
This week: 23 GOP, 27 DEM -
DEM +5, GOP -5
Last week: 24 GOP, 26 DEM -
DEM +4, GOP -4
New Race Tracking
Nevada - CD-2
New York - CD-20
North Carolina - CD-8
Race Rating Changes
Monday
Michigan Governor -
Weak GOP Gain to Weak DEM Hold
Tuesday
None
Wednesday
Colorado Governor -
Strong DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
Rhode Island Senate -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
New York CD-26 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Thursday
None
Friday
Tennessee Senate -
Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold
Colorado CD-7 -
Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
Florida CD-13 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Iowa CD-1 -
Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain
Kentucky CD-3 -
Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold
Louisiana CD-3 -
Weak DEM Hold to possibly competitive
Nevada CD-2 -
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
New Mexico CD-1 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
New York CD-20 -
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
New York CD-24 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
New York CD-26 -
Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain
North Carolina CD-8 -
possibly competitive to Weak GOP Hold
North Carolina CD-11 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Ohio CD-6 -
Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive
Ohio CD-15 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Pennsylvania CD-7 -
Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain
Texas CD-17 -
Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive
