I want to clear up something that might be confusing some of my readers.  The predictions I posted last night reflect my best guess at the election outcome.  The projection to which I refer in this post is the result of plugging the latest polling data into the formula I developed. Obviously, one can deduce from the significant difference in the two totals that I don't feel too confident about the accuracy of my formula.  In fact, I'm already looking at changes to make it more accurate in 2008.

Program note:  I will be posting a full projection update tomorrow night that should capture all the latest major poll releases. So be sure to check here late tomorrow evening for the final Election Projection of 2004.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

Before you flood me with highly descriptive emails explaining how much gray matter I must be missing and how badly I need to seek psychiatric assistance, let me give you an all-important caveat.  It has been my belief for some time now that turnout will highly favor President Bush this year.  There are two reasons I feel this way.  One is that conservative Christians and others who were shaken by the drunk-driving "October Surprise" in 2000 will come out this year in HUGE numbers.  They resent being duped last time and are determined to make up for it. Second, the unbelievable turnaround in the GOP's get-out-the-vote efforts we witnessed in 2002 has come to full fruition this year.  (I discussed that phenomenon earlier here)  When you hear stories of massive turnout, don't be surprised if the majority of those turning out are GOPers.

If my perceptions are wrong, then all bets are off.  I understand polls are showing a close race that could go either way.  They could be right, and my predictions will look very foolish.  If I'm right, be sure to catch me on Good Morning America!  (hehe..Just kidding!)

He and I have watched our projections bounce around over the last several months. Sometimes he has Bush up, sometimes Kerry is up.  Likewise, the leader here at Election Projection has been Kerry at times and Bush at others.  It's both funny and sad the way the email I receive from lefties either praises my objectivity (when Kerry is up) or denegrates my "right-wing propaganda" (when Kerry is down), even though the method I use has not changed since the spring when I added state polling into the mix.  I haven't asked the Votemaster, but I'm sure he'd report the same pattern among his conservative readers.

I digress.  Let me get back to comparing our projection sites.  Hopefully, this will answer some questions you may have had regarding our differing results.  Electoral-vote.com has a much simpler method for deriving its results.  The Votemaster simply uses the latest poll for a given state and awards the electoral votes based on that poll.  He does have a way to handle multiple polls released on the same day, and he explains that process on his site.  By contrast, The Blogging Caesar developed a formula which uses polling data from a variety of relevent factors.  The latest state polls are used, but national polls measuring job approval, head-to-head voter preference and right track perceptions are included as well.

Our two methods are significantly different and can result in considerably divergent results. Here's an example.  Let's say one day a poll is released from Florida showing Bush ahead 46-45.  The Votemaster would then award Bush Florida's 27 electoral votes for that day. Now, at Election Projection, let's say that state poll replaces an older poll showing Bush ahead by 6 points.  (I use up to three state polls in my calculations.)  In this case, it is entirely possible that the addition of this new poll might actually combine with the national numbers to move Florida from Bush to Kerry.  So, you can see how the same poll might result in our two projections flip-flopping a state in the opposite direction from one another.

Two websites, two methods, two results.  Two important things to keep in mind.  One method has yet to be proven better than the other, and both the Votemaster and I are completely objective in our calculations.  Case in point:  Today's projections show Kerry ahead at my pro-Bush site and Bush ahead at his pro-Kerry site.  As one emailer put it, "Will wonders never cease in this business..."

It can't look too good for Kerry right now, either.  As soon as the initial story "broke", Kerry responded, loudly and often, with speeches and sound bites deriding the President's incompetence.  In the eyes of this observer, the New York Times story and Kerry's subsequent media coverage were to be the 1-2 punch of another devastating October Surprise.  After tonight, I can't imagine anyone more surprised than a certain Democratic presidential hopeful, one whose hope is probably now fading to black.

Update:  Those of you who have followed this blog over the course of the last several months have probably been expecting this update all day.  You all know, in spite of my unfettered support for President Bush and the GOP (or more likely because of it!), that I strive to represent the truth on this website as best I can.  The truth this time is that I jumped the gun by posting a comment on this story.  I should have waited for more confirmation before publishing the post.  Oops!  I goofed!  (Y'all can stop with emails concerning this story now, okay?)

However, at this point, Bush does hold some significant structural advantages.  He is leading in both Iowa and Wisconsin and, judging from the very latest polls, New Mexico as well.  If Bush does end up winning those three states, Kerry will have to win both Ohio and Florida.

In addition to head-to-head polls, I suggest everyone watch closely Bush's job approval numbers this upcoming week.  If they taper off into the mid 40's, it'll mean voters are coming to grips with a Kerry presidency.  On the other hand, if they settle into the low 50's, that will signify voters are deciding that they can be content with four more years of George W. Bush.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

Michigan
Survey USA (10/20/04):   Bush 44%   Kerry 51%   margin:  Kerry by 7%
Detroit News (10/19/04):   Bush 47%   Kerry 44%   margin:  Bush by 3%
   Variation:  10 points

New Mexico
Mason-Dixon (10/18/04):   Bush 49%   Kerry 44%   margin:  Bush by 5%
Zogby (10/18/04):   Bush 44%   Kerry 54%   margin:  Kerry by 10%
   Variation:  15 points

Ohio
Ohio University (10/21/04):   Bush 43%   Kerry 49%   margin:  Kerry by 6%
Opinion Dynamics (10/18/04):   Bush 49%   Kerry 44%   margin:  Bush by 5%
   Variation:  11 points

Oregon
Riley Research (10/13/04):   Bush 48%   Kerry 43%   margin:  Bush by 5%
Amer. Research Group (10/12/04):   Bush 44%   Kerry 50%   margin:  Kerry by 6%
   Variation:  11 points

Tennessee
Survey USA (10/19/04):   Bush 60%   Kerry 38%   margin:  Bush by 22%
Zogby (10/18/04):   Bush 50%   Kerry 48%   margin:  Bush by 2%
   Variation:  20 points

Amazing, isn't it?  With the possible exception of Riley Research, about whom I know nothing, all the surveys listed were produced by highly regarded polling firms.  These results just go to show that we'll know very little for sure until November 2.

One reason I wanted to post this news flash is because I believe this is the last time this election cycle that Bush will trail Kerry.  In fact, two job approval polls released just today have bumped up Bush's standing, and preliminary indications are that Florida will be back in Bush's column on the morrow.

[For those of you who didn't sign up but want to now, subscriptions for the final week are still available for $15.]

Update:  It turns out I was fooled by the John Kerry I've seen on TV.  Several readers have written to inform me that Kerry is not such a big Red Sox fan.  (It's Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, John, not Manny Ortez!)  I should've known.  Even though he has tried to completely rebuild his image into some kind of pro-military, moderate on the campaign trail, I thought I could trust him on something like baseball allegiance.  But, alas, even that was just to score points with voters!

How can people with access to the same information hold to such strikingly differing viewpoints?  More importantly, who is right?  This year, much more than in previous elections, the answer has to be "only time will tell."  There are so many new and uncharted variables affecting the outcome of the election in ways that have yet to be measured.  Some favor the President; others favor the challenger.  The net result of them all is to make it impossible to predict with any certainty, even within a broad margin of error, who will win and by how much.

Here's a list of some of these unknowns as I see them and which candidate they could potentially favor.

Vladimir Putin:

I consider the activities of terrorists in Iraq are not as much aimed at coalition forces but more personally against President Bush.  International terrorism has as its goal to prevent the election of President Bush to a second term.  If they achieve that goal, then that will give international terrorism a new impulse and extra power. (emphasis added)

And that's from a foreign leader opposed to the Iraq war, not some GOP talking head.  I can't imagine a more relevant and weighty statement for the American voter to consider as we cast our votes 15 days from now.

Hat tip: PoliPundit

Update:  Boy, did I get a lot of response to this post!  So much, in fact, that I feel it necessary to post a follow-up comment.  This is in no way an endorsement of Putin or his policies.
It is simply an illustration of an international leader who is against our action in Iraq who nevertheless understands this aspect of the War on Terror - the terrorists would rather fight against a United States led by John Kerry than one led by George W. Bush.

It is interesting the way the polls are all over the board this week.  On the one hand, a Democracy Corps poll has Kerry up by 3 points.  On the other hand, Gallup released a poll today giving Bush an 8 point lead.  Add to that Zogby's newfangled state polls and the increased use of cell phones and the job of prognosticating an election result really gets tough. As many have said before, this just illustrates again that the only poll that matters is the one on November 2.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

Some of you may have noticed that the Daily Projection Update offer has been removed from the website.  That's because I'm gearing up for the final two weeks of the campaign.  When I feel better, I'm going to post an updated offer.  I'll be signing people up to receive the final two weeks of the Daily Projection Update for only $20!  If you want to go ahead and sign up, feel free to click on the PayPal button at the top of this page and send in your $20 today.  Those who do will receive the final 10 installments of the Daily Projection Update beginning next Tuesday, October 19 and continuing through Saturday, October 30.

Update:  I missed the debate last night.  I just wasn't feeling good enough to watch.  So, there will be no reactions from me today.  However, I encourage you to check out the links in my sidebar to the left.  I sure most of those guys are bursting with reactions!

Update2:  I've reposted the Daily Projection Update offer at the reduced rate...y'all sign up, ya hear?

My dad was many things.  He was a scholar, a jack-of-all-trades, a meticulous organizer and coordinator.  He was a textile engineer, a Viet Nam veteran, a pastor, missionary and water purification expert.  With him on your team, you knew the job would get done.  He loved my mother deeply and his kids just about as much.

More than anything, though, he was steadfastly committed to carrying out the will of God in his life.  Whether ministering to prison inmates, preaching the Sunday morning sermon, slinging 100 pound bags of feed over his shoulder in the Honduran countryside, or foresaking his own safety by following God's call to Iraq, my Dad was consumed with the desire to reach others with the good news of his Savior, Jesus Christ.  In the end, that dedication cost him his earthly life, but it afforded him the greatest of rewards which he now enjoys in the presence of the Lord.

Dad, what can I say?  You fought the good fight, and you finished the race to the glory of your Heavenly Father.  I'm so proud of you and what God accomplished through your life.  I love you so much, and I'll see you again in a little while!

[For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my father was killed along with my mother and two others in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004.  They were on a humanitarian mission to bring aid to suffering and needy people there.  My parents had spent the last 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels through which the love of God changed countless lives.]

Even though Bush is still in the lead, there is a lot for Kerryites to enjoy.  All of the Changes in the States of the States are in Kerry's direction, and there are a bundle of them.  A total of 12 states and one of Maine's congressional districts are either a lighter shade of red or a darker shade of blue.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.

Bill Roggio:  I would rate this debate as an outright win for President Bush.  He exceeded expectations after the first debate, was not exasperated or flustered by Kerry's remarks and defended his actions and rebutted Kerry's attacks well.

Spoons:  I think Bush was the clear winner, although Kerry did okay.

James Joyner:  I'm not sure if there was a winner on substance here.  Stylewise, both guys did quite well.  Given expectations--and the huge improvement over the first debate--that probably translates to a Bush win.

Glenn Reynolds:  ...it looks to me like a pretty solid Bush win here...

Eric Lindholm:  No contest...President Bush won hands down.

Hugh Hewitt:  No way to call this other than a big Bush win, and no amount of spin can change that.

Betsy Newmark:  I think the President was so much better tonight and Kerry was just the same.  And the more you see of Kerry, the less you're going to like him.  And the spin afterwards will be that this is a draw.  Kerry needed a knockout to continue his momentum.

Taegan Goddard:  If you were keeping score of political points, it was probably a draw.

Winston:  BUSH WINS:  He jabbed and jabbed and had a command of the issues.  Kerry fell in to the trap of barely repeating his performance last week.  Bush far exceeded his performance.  Kerry gave us nothing new and Bush gave a lot...

Mark A. Kilmer:  There can be no question about this one.  None at all.  There was one President in that hall tonight.

Michael Totten is not impressed with either candidate.

John Hawkins:  Verdict:  Draw on foreign policy, Bush wins on domestic policy.  Overall:  Bush wins

After two questions, both Kerry and Bush are looking good.  Bush is battling toe to toe on style and winning on substance. Can he go the distance this time?   Last time he started fine, but fizzled toward the end.

Kerry is harping on WMD and that they aren't in Iraq - Bush counters with everyone thought they were there until we got there, even Kerry.  This is a global conflict says Bush - strong argument against the "Bush took his eye off the ball" line from Kerry.

Bush is doing much better tonight.

Bush said making foreign policy decision can't be governed by popularity contests.  Kerry counters that Bush did not show patience in dealing with Iraq and rushed in without a "plan to win the peace".

Kerry seems more arrogant tonight; Bush seems more confortable and in control.

Kerry is focusing again on Bush looking at Iraq while the threat of other terrorist countries increases.  This is a good line of debate for Kerry to continue.

The draft - OH BOY!  I'm glad that came up.  Bush is handling this question well. (Side note:  did you know that there was a bill in congress that would reinstate the draft?  It was introduced by a couple of Democrats.  One of them is Charles Rangle, and he voted against his own bill, which eventually failed almost unanimously.)

Kerry's response is solid - using endorsements of previous Joint Chiefs of Staff is effective.

Bush strongly responds, talking over Gibson.  We'll see how that plays.

Bush says to speed up generics to market and mentions that drug companies use loopholes. Good to place himself against the big companies.

Kerry response is strong against what Bush said.  He talked about the deficit, which might win some points, too.

Half-way mark:  Advantage slightly to Bush.

"Kerry is a liberal" - FINALLY!  Bush should hammer this constantly.

At this point, if Bush can hold on - he'll win the debate decisively due to the lowered expectation resulting from his less than impressive showing last time.

Kerry pushing the right issues:  Deficit, tax cuts during war, only presidency to lose jobs.

The moment of truth:  Kerry is challenged to pledge not to sign any bill that would increase taxes on families making less than $200,000.  He did.  If he is believed, he'll win points; if not, he'll lose points.

Bush says it's not credible and points to Kerry's record - excellent rebuttal.  I'm excited by Bush's performance so far.  I wonder if his poor showing in the first debate might be a blessing in disguise over the long run.

Kerry keeps trying to say he is a fiscal conservative.  Bush keeps hammering Kerry's record. Again, this is going to be very effective for the President.

On the environment, Bush is listing his accomplishments.  "We've got a good common sense policy."  Bush's answer is stronger than I expected.

Kerry's response is not as strong as I expected.

Joining the Kyoto treaty to the loss of jobs is effective.  Kerry says he will fix the treaty and points again to working with other countries.  He is continuing the "global test" mindset - probably not a good idea.

Kerry's plans are vague references to general principles; Bush list specifics of what he will do and has done.

Bush's answer addressing the Patriot Act is good.  Saying flatly that it doesn't infringe on your rights is important for voters to hear.

Kerry's response listing people who are against it and the illustration of the man in prison for 8 months is strong.  That was one of Kerry's better responses.

Great question for Kerry - (paraphrased)"Why not use adult stem cell instead of embryonic since many have been cured with adult stem cell and none have been cured by embryos?" Kerry doesn't answer the question; he just says we should let the research coninue because of its unrealized promise.

Bush wins the stem cell question hands down - what a pleasant surprise!

Bush is running on all cylinders tonight - another great answer to the question of Supreme Court appointees.

Kerry points to Bush's affinity for conservative justices and warns about the liberal decisions that might be in jeopardy if Bush gets to appoint one or more justices.  That will play to liberals, so he's helping to solidify the base.

Kerry gets a question on abortion from a pro-life perspective.  He does his best, but that's a tough question for someone who is pro-choice.

A question for Bush about wrong decisions is a fair question for the President.  His answer was ok - he didn't provide the sound bite Democrats were probably hoping for in which he admits some grave error.

Kerry's reiterates that the Iraq war decision was a mistake.  This horse has long been dead.

Closing statements:

Kerry's closing statement was not as good as last time.  It wasn't inspiring and it was vague in content.

Bush's statement effectively outlines both his foreign and domestic accomplishments and plans. He did well.

President Bush hit at least a triple tonight.  He clobbered Senator Kerry on substance and even bested him on style.  I thought the questions tonight were solid, fair, and impartial - way to go Charles Gibson!

I know these reactions are very much in Bush's favor.  Some may accuse me of partisanship, but I'm giving my honest opinion of how the events played out.  Bush won this debate, and polls will confirm this conclusion.

Update:  For those who think my evaluation is partisan, I point you to my reactions from the first debate.

Dan Rather's irresponsible, politically calculated use of forged documents to batter President Bush only serves to further and accelerate old media's decline.  A startling confirmation that the mainstream media is suffering heavy hits to its credibility and influence can be seen in a recent poll released by the polling institute at Sacred Heart University.  The numbers that headline the release track the presidential horse race, yet the most telling numbers may be these further down in the article...

Both CNN and Fox News appear be leading as favorites -- 26.6% and 22.4% -- when respondents anticipated who they plan to turn to for election 2004 coverage and reporting.  These cable networks were followed by ABC News (11.7%), NBC News (10.5%), Local News (9.5%), PBS News (7.4%), CBS News (7.1%), MSNBC News (3.7%), CNBC (0.7%), and CBN (0.4%).

I don't consider CNN to be unbiased, so we still have a way to go.  But the fact that Fox News is polling double that of any of the major broadcast networks is phenomenal. The choke hold on spin has been severely undermined.  And the news gets worse for the old
guard - a lot worse...

Only 13.0% suggest they believe "all" or "most" of media news reporting.  Another 60.0% suggest they believe only "some," while 25.2% indicated they believe "little" or "none" of media reporting.

From these figures, it is obvious that the old media isn't losing their credibility - they've lost it. A whopping 85.2% believe at best only some of what they hear.  This response cannot be overstated.  In today's America, only 3 out of 20 people say they believe most or all of what the media is saying.  And the reason for the disbelief cannot be spelled out any clearer than this...

A large majority of survey respondents, 83.9%, suggest they strongly (51.2%) or somewhat agree (32.7%) that the news media have their own political and policy positions and attempt to influence public opinion.

Again, these numbers are astounding.  The idea that the old media simply reports the news is as dead in this country as Howard Dean's presidential hopes.  Voters now understand that the evening news and the daily newspaper are not much more than political advertisements geared to promote an agenda.  Finally, in case you're thinking the knife cuts both ways, I offer this tidbit...

One quarter of all respondents, 26.8%, suggest news media journalists are mostly moderate while 13.9% suggest they are mostly conservative and 40.1% indicated they are mostly liberal. Some, 19.2% were unsure.

That means that half of the respondents who had an opinion say the media is dominated by liberals!  By contrast, only about one in six feels that conservative bias is stronger.  Yes, the old media monopoly is crumbling, and I couldn't be happier about it.

I thought the moderator's comment about flip-flopping was clearly political.  Flip-flopping has been universally tied to John Kerry.  Yet she framed her question about the subject by listing an alleged flip-flop of the President along with one from Senator Kerry.  I'm sure Kerry and Edwards are grateful to her for attempting to neutralize Kerry's biggest weakness in this race.

In the end, not much will come out of this debate.  I think both sides did a good job of holding their own and appealing to their base, and neither made a critical error.  I for one will be glad when these debates are over - they are tiring to watch.  This one was difficult to stayed focused on for the full 100 minutes - and I only saw the last 70!

Update:  If I had seen the first part of the debate, I would have said that Cheney won the debate hands down.  This remark from Cheney was simply a gem:

I couldn't figure out why that [$87 billion vote] happened initially.  And then I looked and figured out that what was happening was Howard Dean was making major progress in the Democratic primaries, running away with the primaries based on an anti-war record.  So they, in effect, decided they would cast an anti-war vote and they voted against the troops.  Now if they couldn't stand up to the pressures that Howard Dean represented, how can we expect them to stand up to Al Qaida?

Ouch!  (Hat tip: RealClearPolitics)

Although no states changed hands this week, all changes to the state of the states favor Kerry. State polls do not reflect any post-debate polling, enabling the President to maintain his advantage.  I expect the projections to turn a little bit more toward Kerry before leveling off. Time will tell if the shift will be enough to give Kerry a majority of electoral votes.  Those who have been receiving my Daily Projection Updates know that Bush actually took a commanding 331-207 lead yesterday, briefly wresting Pennsylvania and Minnesota away from Kerry. After incorporating polls released today, however, those two states are blue once again.

Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been 477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004.  His worst electoral vote total was 181 on September 5, 2003.  May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far.  That update projected him to lose by 7.6%.